The Amsterdam – Grade II
SAR Race #7 6 1/2f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Three Year Olds.
1 No More Rattle Bigchief Stables Ferrer J C
Only once in nine starts has this horse even had a sniff of the rail from the draw monster but today he finds himself right on the rail and really does enter a new world. I guess the question is what does he do now! The winner of the Lang Stakes from a wide draw he has always had to go back to find a spot but today he gets the luxury of doing whatever he wants without that complication and it will be interesting to see how it works out. He has great works and good form considering the disadvantages he has had so i am very keen on him running a big race, the question will be though now he has choices, will he make the right one!
2 Valvano Royalty Stables Hernandez R M
This one is rather typical of what we tend to see, drawn wide he becomes a front runner, drawn in he becomes more of a stalker. He won the Swale from a wide gate being lucky enough to find a midpack position so i am thinking that from this perfect draw he may try and sit fourth or fifth a couple back and then pounce down the stretch. He certainly has the ability to do that as he proved in the Lafayette and he must rate a great chance for the emerging stable.
3 Disciplinary Nakamura Stables Carmouche K
The winner of the Sanford on an off track as a two year old he was sold for what looked like a bit too much after failing in the Hopeful and has taken a long time and a new owner to find anything like the form to justify his sales prices. Back to seven furlongs in the Stephens last time he finally ran a noteworthy race closing hard for a very close third in a race that is a perfect form race for this one. He certainly needs to find consistency if he is to win this and that is the gamble you take with him.
4 Tiger Shark Arindel Jaramillo E
Has been kept in the little leagues after a good juvenile season but steps up now to take his chance in the BC lottery. His works say there is plenty of ability but he has lacked the sort of form that might see him winning this. Having said that the stable is in great shape and this is a speedy type who has the running style from this draw to get into the fight.
5 Dellas Boy Alydar Stables Lezcano J
Drawn wide and went back in the Stephens which is pretty much the kiss of death on this engine but still rallied well to be just two lengths behind at the end. A fair sort but she will need to improve a fair bit to beat the bets of these, a punchers chance especially if they go crazy early on.
6 Charles Wood Duck Stables Gaffalione T
Both Wood Duck Stables and Mb Stables get their five runners into the six outside gates here but there will be plenty of speed in this race so i feel it may not be the disadvantage it usually is. This one ran out of its class in a very big ticket allowance at CD last time and used the feather weight he was carrying to triumph with a big late effort. He will be tested here on level weights but may have a shot if things get crazy up front.
7 Aladdins Genie Mb Stables Saez L
Has some of the best form in the race but also has some of the slower works but i certainly wouldn’t be worrying about those works. He will have to work hard from the draw to get his customary stalk and that may be his undoing but if things work out for him through the first quarter he has a great chance of winning. The winner of the Bay Shore, he was third last time in that blanket finish for The Stephens but raced from the ace draw that day so may find it harder to run his race from here.
8 Personal Ruler Wood Duck Stables Cedillo A
Took the Maxfield Stakes over this trip last time finding the stalk from a wide draw and winning with a bit in hand. He had been concentrating on turf prior to that so that was an eye opening performance and he comes here to try ad repeat that success. I like his early speed and running style for this gate and i think the trainer may have found some keys to the safe with him but he certainly need to step up again to beat the likes of Aladdins Genie.
9 Ace King Suited Wood Duck Stables Hernandez C J
Vert lightly raced and the winner of just one race so on paper this one should have no chance. BUT a 1:10 and 1 work last time tells me he may be on a steep improvement curve and this may be the dark horse in the race. A few Disney dollars each way will be winging his way.
10 Iron Mine Fractious Silvera Ru
Disappointed in the Stephens last time from a good draw after a game win in the Barrera Stakes he is a bit of a head scratcher in this especially from this tough gate. Generally consistent i am still not sure that he is a router or a sprinter and it is that that puts me off but with all the pace in this race he may be coming late on the scene, certainly not without a chance.
11 Rogue Commando Mb Stables Velazquez J R
Bought for $150 after a win in a TUP Allowance Claimer so you know the champion trainer saw something worth a serious look. He has proved that confidence since almost making the KYD field when second in the San Vicente and the Fountain Of Youth. Like a lot of runners from the stable this year he has suffered from a string of bad draws but just may be good enough to run past them late here unless the trainer really takes the bull by the horns and sends him early. He has made the running before and so much will depend on what others do and how the race engine fares as to whether he can win.
12 Palace Guard Sccj Stables Moran D
Gets the car park and that’s tough for this nice sort who needed a few favors to be really competitive against a field like this. Things may fall in place for him so he is not without a chance but they will need to as he is likely going to be coming late.
SUMMARY
A tough race for the punter here and it is likely to be heads and noses at the line. Rogue Commando may be the best of the MB Stables hopes and i rather like Ace King Suited as an outside chance but it is hard to see No More Rattle or Valvano running a bad race and so with their draws i will go for one of those to win.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
