The Gold Cup – Grade I
SA Race #3 1 1/4m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $300.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.

1 Hiei Fractious Franco M 124 —

He was one of my big tips for the KYD last year. The race engine beat him that day, but he made amends in the BEL afterwards and went on to win the Haskell too. After a dud run in the Travers on an off track which he hated he took the Awesome Again and went on to run a cracker in the BC Classic to be a very close third. After a seasonal debut in the Pegasus World Cup he showed that turning four won’t be a problem for him with an easy win in the New Orleans Classic and he does look like he is BC bound again and could take this race in his stride. The inside gate won’t help his running style but as long as he can find a clear run, he must be a big winning chance.

2 Noble Faerie Riggins Racing Lopez P 124 —

Another KYD failure last year he was then second to Hiei in the Haskell before also finding the wet track in the Travers and running a dud. He avoided Hiei in the Classic by going to the BC Dirt Mile but the race engine put him way out the back and despite a huge finish he could only manage ninth albeit not beaten far. He took the Californian last time so is another that is finding no problems with turning four and he must be given a live chance if Hiei looks like the winner.

3 Lion Lake Mb Stables Velazquez J R 124 —

Taken in a claimer and quickly turned into a graded stakes winner when he took the OP Handicap, he is certainly a lot better than a claimer, but this is very different from carrying 115Lbs in a handicap. If anyone can produce an improbable winner, it is Mb and certainly if the track comes up wet, he could well shock a few that hate off tracks.

4 Mr Frost Night Rider Stables Carmouche K 124 —

Another claimed pretty cheaply, he is another that shows just how little there is between form in a claimer and stakes form. On his latest start he flew home to just get beaten in the Excelsior but that is a long way from a grade one, so he will certainly need to find even more improvement.

5 Pennine Way Pan Farms Gallardo A A 124 —

With the best horses here likely to be coming from off the pace it does open it up for a horse to slip away and try and snatch a win and maybe that will be the plan with this five-year-old. He led and nearly held on in the SUN Handicap last time so he can do it if instructed to.

6 Kylo Ren Luz International Luzzi L J 124 —

Beat Lion Lake in the Essex Handicap, so the trainer must be confident he can do that again today and as the speed map for this race shows he could get a nice position just behind the stalkers whilst the deeper closers are trying to time their challenges. I have always liked this one although he has frustrated a few times and his switch to dirt last time was a placement master stroke. I do however see those sorts of switch of surfaces work once, but then fail the next time so as HRP performance patterns go that could be a bit of a negative.

7 Juxlivin My Dream Night Rider Stables Hernandez R M 124 —

The trainer likes to claim them and then throw them in the deep end and to be fair to them they have pulled it off more than once. Although unable to win in three starts with the new trainer and much lower grade a recent lightening work convinced the trainer to have one last go with him. Certainly, as a five-year-old that suddenly works a fast time you have to be wary, but I can’t see him beating the best of these.

8 Spankersville The Sidley Stud Moore R L 124 —

With over $3,500.000 in purse winnings this horse is a class act and though he has thrown a few duds over the years he has been consistently near the top of this division for a while now. He looked all sorts of good when taking some significant scalps in the Pegasus World Cup at the start of the year but didn’t back that up last time in the New Orleans Classic so again we are left wondering. His work times are very good suggesting he can win this, and he has great form on any going which may be important if the rain comes. I guess with so many closers in the race it will be down to the race engine as to who gets first run but he has all the experience and an in-form AI on board to get the job done.

9 Gas Lighting TwinTowersRacing Beschizza A 124 —

He was very close when fourth in the OP Handicap and though that effort may well have been a career best it did prove that he can run with the best of these. Drawn wide and without the luxury of 115Lbs in a handicap he will find it much tougher, but this may turn into one of those tactical races that is won by the horse you least expect.

SUMMARY

Well, this race has a look about it that spells trouble for the best horses in the race. We have two that are likely to go on pace and the rest have all been deep closers suggesting the leading pair could just sneak away while the AI argues with itself ten lengths behind them.
If that scenario plays out it will be between Lion Lake and Pennine Way but we have all seen the click and play race engine turn a closer into a front runner on enough occasions that it won’t be as simple as that. If the track stays dry, I would expect Hiei to win; if it rains then it may be between Spankersville and Lion Lake. I hope for the sake of racing this doesn’t end up being won by the race engine but whatever occurs it sure is a nice-looking race.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES