Aristides BC
CD Race #6 6f Dirt Stake
Purse $275.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.

1 Rantanen Royalty Stables Centeno D E 122 —

The stable has been in good form so it would be no surprise if this one had got some five-year-old fairy dust and produced something today. The last time this one ran on the dirt was in 2022, and it has never sprinted on the surface so it is tough to get a line on him although that sort of record can be a bit of a HRP hack and his dirt times over all trips are certainly competitive enough. His three starts this year have been very good so maybe the algorithm has been waiting for this switch of surface.

2 Top Of The Crop Maxmillion Farm Bridgmohan S X 122 —

The six-year-old has always promised a lot but can be a bit hit and miss like most horses at the moment at HRP. Strong off the front, I would expect him to try and lead today and with this nice draw he should get a position somewhere up front pretty easily. He showed in the Forego that he can win a race like this, and his recent works are very strong.

3 Akkadian Threshold Silvera Ru 122 —

An eight-year-old with 50 races he has done pretty well over his long career with 13 wins and can still run a bit. This maybe his swan’s song but at his best he could make it a good one.

4 Judge Nakamura Stables Gallardo A A 122 —

It used to be that a 1.10 dirt six-furlong work time was only reserved for the elite at HRP but nowadays everything is running those sorts of times. This one’s works are no exception, but he has some good form to back it up. I liked his effort from a wide gate in the Kona Stakes last time, and he had won the GP Sprint Championship the race before and as form figures go, they are good enough to win this.

5 High Time Maxmillion Farm Velazquez J R 122 —

Another that has worked that standard time of 1.10 for the six furlongs he looked strong in winning the Pelican last time and has some decent sprinting form to back that up. It may be true that his form figures look a lot like everything else, but I like his running style for this because I am not sure the first or last to leave the gates will be the winner.

6 Everest Lanfranco Stable Espinoza V 122 —

The trainer gets plenty of heat for their valuation of their horses and on bare form this one looks over its head, but he has a few things going for him that may just get him home. The lightly raced five-year-olds can be pretty dangerous and this one’s work times suggest that he is as good if not better than most here even of his accomplishments on the track don’t give him much hope. I rather like him for a long shot and think he may run better than most people think.

7 Blamethespeedparty Martyparty Hernandez R M 122 —

He seems to have been around forever but is still only a five-year-old so is probably just getting to his best. He can take a few races to get going but that last start in the Fourstardave and a fast recent work has a look about it that suggests he is ready.

8 Regal Halo Fractious Prat F 122 —

Working the regulation time, he is a decent four-year-old in a tough gate in a tough division. Can he win, yes, he certainly can, his second in the Carter Handicap is certainly enough to back that claim. The wide gate may give him the speed push to clear them and lead here but that is going to take some effort and leave him vulnerable late. The race engine will need to be on his side even if the draw monster isn’t, but if things go his way, he has a win chance.

SUMMARY

These races are almost impossible to call, with a spider web of form and all the horses able to work the same times there really is nothing to go on but a pin. I stuck my pin in and went for BlamethespeedParty although I must admit I think Everest may just spoil the party.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded