Who Will Be Popping the BC Champagne at AQU?

The Champagne – Grade I [BC]
AQU Race #7 1m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Two Year Olds.

1 Obi Wan Allinthegate Corrales G 120 —

Ran a nice debut second and then was pushed very hard to take his maiden last time with a battling head win at DMR. Drawn wide that day he had to make his own luck and go forward and did well to hold on in a driving finish. This is a step up, but a good mile work says he will appreciate this extra two furlongs and an inside draw will make his run far more economical. Of the one race winners in this field, he is certainly one of the better ones.

2 Ill Be Around Alydar Stables Bocachica Ar 120 —

Bought for $200.000 from Fractious after three seconds in a row he quickly repaid that confidence with a huge maiden win next time. Coming from a mile behind he flew late to win by a half-length in a racing style that we hadn’t really seen from him before. Reverting back to a more mid-pack average pace sort of style last time he was a big disappointment in the DMR Futurity trailing in tenth, and I wonder whether we will see him ridden back again today which certainly seemed to suit him in his maiden win. He certainly has something to prove at this level after that last run, but I can only see one pattern of race where he wins and though not impossible it does rely on a bit or racing luck.

3 Vault Fractious Santana R Jr 120 —

Ground out a maiden win at DMR last time after three previous goes at the win and whilst that was a game win, I am not sure I see him as a grade one winner just yet. Having said that, experience with these juveniles can be a help and the trainer seems to have the Midas touch at the moment, so a quick improvement from a great draw wouldn’t be surprising.

4 Meet The Chief Locked And Loaded Ortiz J L 120 —

You don’t win a big-ticket maiden at CD on debut without some talent, the question is just how much does he have. His works have been OK but nothing special but these days that doesn’t seem to matter as much. His winning time was good, and he got a 90 SRF figure too, so I am very wary of him.

5 Unbridled Command Fractious Alvarado J 120 —

Another Fractious runner who won his maiden by a whisker he then ran in the ELP Juvenile over seven furlongs where he ran on well for a close second. I think this may be the better of the two runners from the stable and he has the advantage of being inside all of the proven stakes horses in this race, so he must have a good chance of being in the top three.

6 Speed Queen Riggins Racing Rodriguez Jam 120 —

Won on debut and has been running in stakes races ever since. This is his seventh start today so he has plenty of experience and he proved last time in the grade one Hopeful that he can cope with this level. The gaming buttons or the inconsistency of the race engine have resulted in two very different running styles in his last two starts, he made all to win the Rio Grande Senor Futurity and then turned into a closer to fly home for third in the Hopeful. If it was the trainer and the gaming buttons, they have an interesting choice from this mid-pack draw today, if it was the race engine then we won’t know what he will do, but he has proven good at both so it may not matter. He has all the form to win this and hails from a stable having a great year so far.

7 Domestic Product D J C Racing Stables Smith M E 120 —

Took a little maiden at FL before going to SAR and running a decent race in a big-ticket allowance when third last time. He certainly seems to have improved since being gelded and it was a decent effort last time although I wasn’t sure it was an effort of a horse looking for a mile at this stage in his career.

8 Mooresy Big Guns Stables Saez L 120 —

Took a big-ticket maiden at SAR with a game all the way win and then again showed his fighting spirit in taking the Funnycide at the same track last time. I like where this one is going, and I certainly like the fact that he has proven heart and class genes and whilst the wide draw certainly isn’t great, I think he must be a winning chance. It helps that his works are pretty good too, a two-year-old working 1.10 and 3 5 years ago would’ve been seen as a freak so he must be taken seriously in this.

9 Evening Off Asgar Wilson E J 120 —

Two from two is always a good place to be coming into your first stakes race and this gelding looks ready for a race like this. I liked the fact that he was working strongly after just the one start, but he will need some help from the race engine if his deep closing style is going to work from a wide gate. He flew home to win an optional Claimer at DMR last time with a closing rush that was helped by a fast early pace. With a big field and a good few on pace runners he may get the same situation today, and I can see him flying home late and wide.

10 Turning Point TwinTowersRacing Davis D 120 —

After winning two good races in a row, he was a little disappointing in the Sapling last time when making ground late after a poor start. Sprinters can sometimes be taken back on HL by the race engine in an effort to see out longer trips so I am not sure if it was the run of a router or a sprinter, but I guess we will find out today. The trainer knows how to get them in the BC so he must be given a solid chance.

11 Bitcoin Bobby Mb Stables Pennington F 120 —

Sure to be a few peoples pick here just being from Mb Stables and after his brilliant win in the With Anticipation last time there is no reason he can’t pay the punters back. He flew home that day to grab what was a fairly easy win in the end and he did it from a wide draw so if we see the same thing again today from a similar position he may, if the race engine lets him, power past them again. His works are strong he has a good two-year-old jockey and he certainly has the form on the board so he could be an easy pick.

12 Bold Dummy Mb Stables Rosario J 120 —

The random draw monster has once again been very consistent in putting the stable runners right next to each other. This is the only maiden in the race but as a maiden he is working the same dirt mile times and the With Anticipation winner inside him so try and work that one out! Like his stable mate he has been closed well last time over a mile although his effort was on this surface so that’s a plus. Clearly better than a maiden, I am not sure he has shown enough to see him breaking that maiden at this level.

SUMMARY

A tough race to sort out as these juvenile races always are. The horses with the better stakes form are all drawn wider and there is a real split between closers and on pacers with very little in between, so I can imagine a scenario down the stretch where the front goes back and the back comes forward, it is always down to the race engine in those scenario’s as to who gets the timing right. I rather like Mooresy here as a horse that can go into a loose stalk and has the guts to see off the closers, but it is a wobbly pick as there are plenty of promising ones. On pace, I suspect Unbridled Command will be in it at the end and closing, I can see Bitcoin Bobby and Evening Off flying home.



Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES