The Ballerina – Grade I [BC]
SAR Race #7 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
A big field of hopefuls here trying to win their place into the BC in November. Three year olds have won the last seven running’s of this race with the dead heat of 2014 being the last time an older filly or mare got a look in. Now if this was last year or any of the other seven we would be discounting the older horses and looking at the three year olds to find our winner but this year of course things have been different. Whether we are just looking at a particularly bad batch of three year olds which would be odd considering that breeding hasn’t really changed or there was some adjustment in development or weight advantage we will probably never know but the fact remains these races are far more competitive among age groups than they were.
Lets take a look at this years field:
1 Top Billing Smokey Stover Gonzalez Ru
Rather appropriately the ace draw goes to Top Billing, a three year old from the powerful Smokey Stover stable.She has really come into her own this year starting off the season by winning a maiden and seven months later being a dual stakes winner.Two good placings in the Gazelle and the Eight Belles saw her a good thing for the Melair Stakes where she made all and got home by a half length. I was more impressed with her last start win though when she took on the Fleet Treat Stakes from a wide draw and carrying a penalty but still had the heart to make all and keep on gamely for a head win. There is no doubt she has plenty of ability and this draw will be a great advantage if she once again starts well and makes the front but this is a much tougher field and she will have to step up again.
2 Precise Performance Mb Stables Velazquez J R
Last year BC Distaff winner had been struggling to win this year over route trips but she got back to winning ways last time to win the Honorable Miss Handicap over six furlongs. Now that’s a very HRP thing to do for a grade one winner over 10 furlongs but class seems to trump trip on this computer game and it certainly did in that race. Now if this was a real life race then i may question her ability to win over this trip in a much stronger field than her last win but if anyone knows that’s not really a consideration at HRP it is Mb Stables and you have to respect their decision to run this BC champ back in a sprint. We know she is all class, she has the best draw possible, she has a trainer that is in sizzling form again so there are many things that say she will win this and provide the stable with yet another BC starter.
3 Tommy Frazier John Henry Gaffalione T
Sixth from a terrible draw in last years BC Fillies and Mares sprint she is a real solid sprinter but she often fills the minor places rather than the top spot. She made all to win the Sugar Swirl last December but for the most part has been a deep closer, a reminder that we are playing a click and play computer game and not real life so a lot will depend on which selection the trainer makes today. She has a great draw this time which may mean she can stay a bit closer and still come with a late run but this is a big field to run round and she may have to settle for a place as her best result.
4 Starship Twister TwinTowersRacing Davis D
The trainer loves to throw these types in these big races and whilst she seems to have a bit to find to win this race TwinTowers seems to have a way of getting some big runs out of these types. A solid third in the DEL Handicap over ten furlongs last time she proved she could sprint as well as stay in the race before when she took a close fourth in the Bed O Roses Handicap. The form and the work times say she is up against it though and she will do well to grab a minor cheque.
5 Slckmoment Laga Night Rider Stables Saez L
This may be a case of trying to make hay whilst the sun shines because she was winning the grade one Test just 3 weeks ago and it is interesting to see her again this soon. Three times a graded stakes winner this year she may be the best hope of the three year old sprinters in this years BC but this is the first time she takes on older’s today so it will be an important answer to an important question. She was excellent in the Test and her work times coupled with the weight allowance certainly suggest she will go very close to winning today but there is this nagging doubt about the three year olds this year that keeps me from making a winning decision about her.
6 Call Sarah First Street Stables Ryan S
A solid enough sprinter her biggest chance seems to come with the trainers recent form and whilst her form isn’t outstanding the key here may be that this is her first ever dirt race. That may not be an advantage in real life but here on HRP it can sometimes be a bit of a glitch that a horse out runs itself when it suddenly changes surface. So how can we weigh up her chances? Well, she is a graded stakes winner on turf and her dirt work was very good but on the balance her form so far she isn’t good enough unless the glitch kicks in.
7 Sinissipi Strange Threshold Bejarano R
She had been slumming it down the levels for a long time before she had a go at stakes level racing and she has done well enough finishing third in the Bed O Roses and a close fourth in the Great Lady M Stakes. She has certainly hit form recently but the question is whether she can win a race at this level, if things go her way then she has an each way chance.
8 Baptisted By Fire Mo Mentum Farm Lezcano J
Bought for $45 after winning a claimer she has done well for the new stable and i rate her chances pretty much the same as the filly inside her. After running a close up fifth in the Great Lady M she was then very impressive in The Shine Again over this trip and this is another stable that has hit form and that is certainly an advantage to this five year olds chances. An eleven race winner at lower grade she may just be hitting her improvement curve at the right time.
9 Copper Mama John Henry Bahen S R
Bought for $500 from Team 7 Illusions she has been largely disappointing for the new stable since and looks to try and turn things around today. She won the grade one Derby City Distaff in May for the old yard but has been pretty lack luster in two races since finishing down the field in both the Phipps and the Princess Rooney. I think the luck with the draws has been a major factor in her efforts looking very inconsistent and once again she seems to have had bad luck from the random draw machine. She certainly has the ability to win this but you have to take her recent form out of the equation.
10 First Impression Mb Stables Jaramillo E
The second runner from the stable who was second in this race last year prior to running third in the BC Fillies and mares sprint she is certainly a classy sprinter but she hasn’t been quite as good this year. She looked to be running into form when taking the Whimsical Stakes but then disappointed in the True North so she may not be as good as she was last year but may still be good enough to be a serious contender here. She was drawn wide in last years Ballerina so this wide gate may not be a huge problem to her.
11 Grayte Catch Fractious Cedillo A
Bought for $250 she ran well enough in the Honorable Miss Handicap to suggest she was worth that. The wide draw wont help her chances but she is a lightly raced and clearly quickly improving filly so we should expect anything from her today. Third in the Vinery Madison in April in only her fourth career start it is hard to compare her to some of these seasoned types but a big run wouldn’t be a surprise.
12 Christina G Mb Stables Bridgmohan S X
The third runner from the stable and the one that has got the car park draw she is more of a naturally closing sprinter so she may not be so inconvenienced by it. The other advantage of course is that she has two stable companions to control the pace of this race so all in all her chances shouldn’t be too hurt by this gate. A close sixth in this race last year she has been hovering on being a top sprinter without quite making the grade having won at grade two and three. Her last race effort when a closing third in the Princess Rooney was much better than her Triple Bend effort and i can see her running a similar race today.
SUMMARY:
A tough race to call and it is very tempting to take a look at history and go for Sickmoment Laga but i stand by the rise of the older horses this year and will plump for Precise Performance for a stable on fire. Call Sarah may be worth a dollar each way on a hunch
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
