The BEL Derby Invitational – Grade I
AQU Race #5 1 3/16m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $750.000 For Three Year Olds.

1 Sleeping Giant TwinTowersRacing Geroux F 122 —

This is a pretty standard field for this race as horses that were tried in the TC chase start to look to see if their futures lay on the turf. This is an interesting entry though as he only broke his maiden at the start of the year and hasn’t exactly been a standout on the track, but his work times are suggesting that he may be better than his bare form suggests. Changes in surface and wet tracks in his efforts so far may muddy the waters a little and whilst I am not convinced he can win it really wouldn’t surprise to see a big run.

2 Chaparral Cowboy Nakamura Stables Gallardo A A 122 —

Comparing this one to the horse inside him really does show just how hard it can be to assess these horses on a body of work. Working slower than Sleeping Giant he is a dual graded stakes winner and a BC competitor, comparing the form between these two really does make the work times almost inexplicable. For some time however work times have correlated less with form so I am not put off by his works and instead will concentrate with what he has done on the track. He squeezed into the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint last year but after a fairly lack luster run, he looked more at home going the mile next time out when taking the DeMille Stakes. After that good win he was sent back to dirt to try and make TC qualification but couldn’t get into the points and ended up back on turf last time out in the Pennine Ridge. He was brave that day from a wide draw winning by a neck and with a three from four record on the grass it is clear that that is where his future lies. A definite chance from a great draw.

3 Test The Waters Mb Stables Gutierrez Mario 122 —

After a second in the Bourbon qualified him for the BC he went on to run a cracker to be second on the BC Juvenile Turf beaten just a quarter length at the post. Like most good three-year-olds he went the TC route on the dirt in the early part of the year and ran some crackers to qualify for the KYD where he was a little disappointing ending up 16th. He turned that around in the Preakness all but winning when being just caught on the line by his stable mate and comes here off a decent break since that race. After his efforts in the lead up to the TC and his great run in the Preakness he looks pretty good on both surfaces but if it turns out he is better on turf then we may just see a huge run today. His works are super sharp on dirt and turf, and you cannot fault his form so he may be the obvious choice as the winner of this race.

4 Shark Waters Fractious Davis D 122 —

A bit of a dark horse here, he comes into this grade one with just one stakes effort when finishing fifth at ungraded level. An on-pace type, he ran from the wide draw that day so that may be some explanation for his average effort and if you take that run out of the equation then he looks a promising and consistent type. He was strong last time in taking a big-ticket allowance at WO in a decent time and those races are pretty competitive, so it shows he has the ability to run at this level. As with all the work times it seems he is working pretty much as well as anything else suggesting that he may be sneaking under the radar but for me these promising types have to prove they have the class gene before I get too excited about it when they take big steps up like this
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5 Convincing Diablo Diablo Husbands P 122 —

Seems to prefer the turf and has run some decent races on the surface. He has switched between being a deep closer and a more stalking type so has some options from this draw and seems to run well either way although with a late style jockey on board we may see him going back early on. He started off the year with a big effort to be second in the Kittens Joy on an off track but after a couple of decent runs in overnights he failed to impress in the American Turf. Running as a deep closer from the wide gate, I can excuse that run as one of those we seem to see these days and he returned to his old self last time when closing strongly to be a close second in the Pennine Ridge. A lot will come down to where he ends up through the first half of this race and how traffic treats him after that, but he has the form and works to be a contender.

6 Rearranger Mb Stables Franco M 122 —

Having his first start on turf today, his works suggest he may appreciate the swap. He looked a live TC prospect when taking the Davis Stakes early in the year, but he failed to step up on that and despite running some solid races he couldn’t break through in his next couple of starts to get the required points. Tried over a shorter trip last time he went on pace from a wide draw and couldn’t see it through, so he steps back up in trip today and along with the change of surface we may see an effort that is more like his early form. His turf works have looked really sharp, and I am thinking that he may be the surprise package from the stable if all goes well.

7 Way Of The Dragon Fractious Velazquez J R 122 —

After looking good but not outstanding in his early career he has really stepped it up in his last three although with two being on an off track it can be hard to really assess how many steps up, he has really taken. A gutsy win in the Pasadena Stakes was followed with a good effort to be a closing fourth in the American Turf and then his best career win in the Audubon last time. His works are as good as everything else so that as usual doesn’t tell us much apart from at home at least he can live with these so it will be down to whether he can continue progress at this level. I think his running style may suit the pattern this race is likely to be run and we know he acts on wet or dry ground, so there are definitely reasons to like his chances.

8 Winned Team 7 Illusions Cohen D 122 —

Another one that went the TC route and is having his first start on turf, he worked a 1,34 and 2 on this surface so is certainly no worse than he is on dirt which puts him in with a great chance. After running through the qualifiers, he won the BG Stakes which put him into the KYD, and he had plenty of support to take the race for the veteran trainer but ran an inexplicable race to finish last of the twenty runners. The run was so poor that we would have to put his effort down to the off track and that may be the difference here between winning and running poorly again. If the ground stays dry then he is a definite win chance, if it rains leave him out would be my advice but this game has made me look a fool more than once so trust me it is only an opinion based on what I see. I like the fact that he has had a good break since the KYD, but this again can work both ways so whilst he would be right up there in my estimations, I do have some question marks.

9 Free Agent Fractious Prat F 122 —

Another one that had a go at the TC, he never really got going in the points race and was generally pretty disappointing. That all changed for the son of Con Artist however when he was put to turf in April as he immediately took black type in the Singletary Stakes and then ran a blinder in the PEN Mile to be second to Classy City. He has been running as a closing type and with a wide draw you would expect him to go back so that throws up some problems for him, but if the pace is strong then he will be flying home down the outside and he certainly has the ability to get pretty close in that scenario.

SUMMARY
With over half the runners from just the two stables you would expect one of those two to have at least one in the finish so the first job may be picking the best of those 5 runners. Without too much pace in the map for this race, I am thinking that Test The Waters and Rearranger may dominate the early part of the race and as long as they don’t go too fast that may end up being how they finish. I really like Winned on this surface, and he could easily win but the gap between races worries me a little along with the wide draw, so it is hard to tip him against the Mb pair.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES