December 8, 2015

First named the HOL Starlet and now just the Starlet, the Grade I race for juvenile fillies has been a building block for many budding careers over the years and on Saturday, another filly will add their name to a prestigious list that includes multiple Grade I winners and champions. Bunny Ranch was the first really big name to win, parlaying her 2007 victory into two Grade I wins afterward including the BC Distaff, while Told You So followed it up in 2008 as part of three top-class wins as a juvenile. Mrs Bombastic is one of the greatest fillies or mares to ever race at HRP and used her win in 2009 as a catapult to victories in the SA Oaks, AR Derby, PRK, CCA Oaks and BC Ladies Classic as a three-year-old while one year later, Roundheel finished off her season with a win at HOL from the outside stall after just missing in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Short Dog won the BC title in 2013 and scored the Starlet to cap up her campaign but this year, only one runner from the BC returns and that leaves six other entrants to pick up the mantle and prove themselves at the highest level before coming back as sophomores.

1-Risk Taker (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

A maiden and allowance winner in quick succession, Risk Talker was unable to quicken against state-bred rivals in the Gimma and only able to close mildly into midpack in the tougher Matron; now, she stretches out to two-turns in hopes of finding more late speed. Speed ratings have improved every time she has gone to post and the inside post will help her save some ground but the question is class and on paper, she does not look to have as much in that regards as others and will have to prove it before being taken seriously.

Analysis-Jumps in company despite a pair of even efforts

Fair Odds-12/1

2-Jewel In The Sand (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Jewel In The Sand was a very good maiden winner last time out after just missing in the Grade II Pocahantas and if you toss out her effort in the Frizette over the slop at BEL, you have a filly who loves going long, from a barn that knows how to produce a Grade I winner. Another with improving speed ratings and a big time jockey change, her biggest asset might be rateable speed and if she gets a clear run, she will be closing better than most at this key distance.

Analysis-Lots to like in an improving filly

Fair Odds-7/2

3-Stellar (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-M.b.o. Racing Stable)

Stellar has had a decent seven-race campaign this year with a placing in the Maid Of The Mist at BEL but she was only able to close into a midpack placing in the Grade II Golden Rod last time and while that might have been in the mud, she will still need to show more to contend for the win here. Never one to show speed, there is not a lot signed on for this event and that might make things tough for her; couple that with a new jockey and you have a filly who will simply need to be better after a long stretch of races.

Analysis-Long campaign seems to be taking its toll

Fair Odds-10/1

4-Track Star (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Chili King Stables)

Various stakes efforts around the country have seen Track Star come close to victory but at heart, the daughter of Abra Kadabra is still only an allowance winner and will have to prove her worth around two-turns on the main track if she hopes to step forward. She has been closing stoutly in all of her starts but can never seem to find the winner’s circle and now, without any Graded Stakes experience, she jumps into the biggest test of her season and that will leave her on the outside looking in.

Analysis-Has done well this season but not enough to warrant a win

Fair Odds-6/1

5-Blazin Bia (Two-year-old black filly / Owner-Guidry Jr)

A maiden winner at first asking, Blazin Bia has tried to win going long in her last two starts but has been unable to quicken enough over sloppy and good ground and hopefully, with a fast track, she might be able to find a little more late momentum. Her speed ratings in those two starts were far below what is needed to win this race and her only real saving grace are her workouts, which are quite good and could be enough to propel her into a small piece.

Analysis-Has not really shown enough to warrant being in this race

Fair Odds-20/1

6-Little Kruz (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Brave)

Little Kruz is one of the more intriguing entries in the Starlet field, since she followed up her second in the Gimma at 224-1 with a dismal effort on the turf, then a return to the main track where she scored the SC Residence Filly in another 15-1 upset. A win and a second from two starts over the dirt show that she likes the surface and with her proven closing ability, the two-turns might not be so bad and should could be the sleeper for a stable looking for only their second Grade I win.

Analysis-Showed enough at PRX to warrant a big look

Fair Odds-4/1

7-Wicked Heat (Two-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-EasyMoney Stables)

KYD and BC Classic winner Commanding was always expected to be a massive sire and with two Grade I winners in his first crop, including Chandelier winner and Juvenile Fillies place getter Wicked Heat, he certainly looks to be a rising star. For the aforementioned filly, she clearly ranks as the class of the field with the best speed ratings of anyone; a repeat of her efforts at DMR, SA or even CD will crush this field and it looks to be a simple choice for those choosing to handicap this race

Analysis-Clearly the best and should love the outside stall

Fair Odds-Even

Overall

There really is only one clear choice in the Grade I Starlet at LA on Saturday afternoon and that is Grade I winner Wicked Heat, who could throw herself back into contention for year-end honours with a big victory here to cap off her season. She certainly ranks as the best on class and speed ratings but look for Jewel In The Sand to have a say from the inside if she can get a clear trip around the final turn, and for Little Kruz to continue her great campaign on the main track and really step up off some big efforts.

Prediction

Win-Wicked Heat (Even)

Place-Jewel In The Sand (7/2)

Show-Little Kruz (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES