It will take a little over a minute for a full field of twelve to run the six furlongs of the Grade 2 Phoenix at Keeneland this Saturday. The immediate reward is the $400.000 purse being offered but lurking in the background is the real prize of immediate entry into the Breeder’s Cup Sprint given to the winner. With a month to go until the BC at Del Mar trainers are scrambling to get into that very lucrative $1,000.000 event. We all start the year out with hopes for our favorites showing talent. We have had 9 full months to dream. It is now crunch time. When the gate opens it will be one more minute of dreaming for twelve horses. Eleven dreams snuffed out in a minute. One winner with a dream left standing, but who will it be?
1. Opera (Roman) Maximilian Farm. Lightly raced this year. No points towards BC race so this is a must win if he is to make it to the gate at Del Mar. Last seen winning a high-level optional claimer at Del Mar in July. Eye popping breeze at SA in late September must have told his owner his current form makes it worth taking a shot here. Has never really shown ability to compete at this level but could be a 5-year-old hitting a peak. Add speed to the rail and I think he is interesting here especially given the wily connections.
2. Tehran (Saez) Mb Stables. 6-year-old who has competed in the last two BCs albeit in the Dirt Mile division. Picked up for $30.000 Spring of ‘23 and immediately turned into a consistent graded stakes stalwart. Just missed the BC dirt mile win two years ago but now looking to gain entry into the Sprint. Trainer has kept him out of the graded stakes war his last four starts. Got him back to the winner’s circle in his last start after a yearlong drought and a sharp last work. The trainer gets them ready like no one else. More dangerous speed with a great post.
3. General Zod (Velasquez) Royalty Stables. Already guaranteed a spot in the field at Del Mar by virtue of winning the G1 Crosby. Since moving back to sprinting he has recorded two straight 100 SRF speed figures so he looks to continue building on his growing resume as an elite sprinter. Cuts back to 6f and has drawn the perfect post suited to his stalk and pounce style. Top jock. Has never competed at this track but has worked sharply here before. Nothing to knock here.
4. Balestier Road (Geroux) Mb Stables. He is the only 3-year-old currently in the main body of the field. Purchased for $325.000 earlier this year and, like his stablemate in post 2, the trainer immediately turned him into a graded stakes contender with a graded win in the G2 Amsterdam. He currently sits at fifteenth in qualifying for the BC Sprint so could use a few points if that is the goal. Resume is lighter than some but is a young horse with upside and, obviously, the right connections.
5. Daddys A Baller (Prat) Luz International. Never seems to run a bad race. Graded stakes winner but has never ventured into this very top level before. Given his long consistent record as a top performer with the will to compete he has earned his shot here. He is coming off of a win in a high-level allowance at Aqueduct but will need his absolute best to make his mark here.
6. Hollywood Cruiser (Curtis) Threshold. Grizzled veteran making his 45th start in this race. One graded stakes win to his credit back in May 2023. The seven-year-old has rarely stepped into stakes company in recent times but hit the board in his lone G3 start this year. He was a winner in his last race which was also at this distance but that was in a small field of four. A win is a win and that could be a confidence builder, but he is taking a huge step up in class here today. Would be great to see a hard knocking old timer come through but have to consider him a longshot here.
7. Dorian Gray (Franco) Mb Stables. Has been knocking on the door for a top level win the whole year. That consistency has been racking up qualifying points to where he is currently thirteenth on the list to get into the Sprint. Throw out his last dud. It was uncharacteristic for him, but he has never performed his best at Saratoga and he was forced to go earlier than probably wanted to from a horrible outside post. He regularly puts up three figure speed figures and is a top contender here.
8. Hurricane Ridge (Lopez) The Sidley Stud. Has not dodged anyone all year long but has had some dodgy luck with some outside draws. Seemingly on the bubble in seventeenth to qualify for the big race so is looking for a good showing here to get in. Last effort in the O’Brien looks bad but came out of post eleven against elite competition so you can give him a pass on that one. He also seems to run a good one bad one pattern in general which means he could be on a form up swing and due for a good effort now. Made it to the BC Sprint last year where he was soundly beaten. It’s very hard to get a handle on this one.
9. Glee (Bejarano) Night Rider Stables. Sharp claim from this top trainer. Hard to look at that last effort with a 102 SRF figure and not say “wow”! Almost pulled down a G1 BC entry win at Saratoga second off of a $7.500 claim. Doesn’t get the great draw in this one that he did in the Forego but that last race was so good it is hard to dismiss him even though this would be only his second stakes start in an almost thirty race career. Sitting thirty third on the qualifications list he needs a win or a repeat of last to get into the Sprint. Dark horse given humble history but still hard to ignore that last race.
10. Coronado Beach (Zayas) Family Racing. Stakes winner with back class but you have to go pretty far back. Speedster from the outside you have to think he will have to push and could be a fly in the ointment for some of the top contenders forcing the pace. Trying to find something to like here and it is honestly hard off of recent form but is working well and you truly never know. Have to think the trainer sees something to put up the entry fee and be heading to the gate. I love underdog stories, and this would be a nice one if he can pull off the upset here.
11. Red Vino (Corrales) The Sidley Stud. Isolate his two graded sprint efforts on dry tracks this year and you have a contender. He won the G3 Tripe Bend which gives him four qualifying points to sit thirty first on the BC Sprint list. His other effort was a storming home sixth in the O’Brien in his last. Both races gave him triple digit figures and make him one to watch here. His other sprint effort should be thrown out given the muddy track. I think he prefers seven furlongs vs the six here in the Phoenix but if he can drop back from the outside post and get a hot pace, he could be one to watch in that final furlong.
12. Licit (Husbands) D J C Racing Stables. This is a fast horse who has consistently competed at an elite level and shown he is up to being a contender in a major sprint as we saw in last year’s Malibu. His last three races have left him a little behind the competition, but his trainer shows continued faith by entering him here. Needs a win if the BC is the goal and it does not help him that he has drawn the very outside post. He is another who may benefit from a hot pace and a trip but given recent form and the bad luck of the draw I can’t pick him here.
The Phoenix has not really proven itself to be a springboard to BC success, but you have to be in it to win it, and it offers the horses here their path to entry. There is no SRF forecast available at the time of this writing but the real-life forecast looks like it is going to be a picture-perfect day at Keeneland on Saturday with a fast track which is always what you want to see in terms of fairness when so much is on the line. My top pick here is hardly daring. The race and draw look like a perfect setup for General Zod to take down another. I’m going to go out there a bit for second choice with Opera on the rail. I love his works, and he could not be drawn better. I’m going to root for Glee to put in another stellar performance but that’s probably more because I like his story. His post hurts him, but his trainer has not set a foot wrong with him yet.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES