The Prk – Grade I
PIM Race #15 1 3/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $2,000.000 For Three Year Olds.
Weight 126 lbs.

Well, it’s leg two of the triple crown already and who would have thought that it would be Hippyheart Stables that would be the one sweating on the TC bonus. Unlike the real-life Preakness which is often a short field due to its proximity to the KYD the HRP version is always full, and I feel that is one of the factors that makes the TC bonus so hard to win. At the time of writing the weather looks OK with a worst-case scenario being a good track as it was in the KYD but a good chance of a fast surface, Hippyheart will be praying for some moisture, but I think one or two others will be hoping for a dry track. Poison Arrow is rested here which opens up the race somewhat as he almost certainly would’ve started favorite, but I feel the trainer has one eye on the BC Classic with his charge, so it seems a sensible decision.
Here is how they line up for The Preakness, leg two of the Triple Crown:

1 Walk Em Down Mb Stables Franco M 126 —

Form: -33120
Well, there really is no good explanation as to why this horse ran so badly in the KYD, he didn’t seem inconvenienced by the off track after winning the Risen Star in the mud and after his massive finish in the LA Derby the trip seemed OK too. Maybe it was the difficult draw, 13 of 20 is really a squeeze box and with just four previous races he didn’t have the experience to push his way into contention. Whatever the reason he gets an inside draw today which can also be difficult to win from although I am sure he will be better suited by it. The likelihood is he will get an easy trip into mid-pack, the question will then be can he find a path to launch his powerful finish. He is definitely good enough to win this, but it is hard after his KYD run to be too confident.

2 Master And Commander Fractious Prat F 126 —

Form: -0100-1043
His form figures aren’t overly inspiring but his last two starts have been very good and he has to be a consideration from this great draw. Only average as a two-year-old it was clear that Fractious saw something in him as they paid $150.000 after he had won a maiden and been well beaten at allowance level as a two-year-old. It didn’t take long for him to start looking like a TC contender though and certainly this year he has started to look like a graded stakes winner with close finishes in three tough KYD qualifiers. The problem that the trainer faces here is that he is a natural deep closer and thus not suited by the recent engine, he ran huge finishes in both the LA Derby and the BG Stakes to be beaten under a length but in both cases couldn’t get the timing right to go for the win. He is a winning chance, there is no doubt about that, and he has the draw to do it, but that winning will be very much down to race engine scenarios, so he is a risk.

3 Fujisan Alydar Stables Bridgmohan S X 126 —

0-43110
Now this to me looks like a dark horse in this race. He took a while to break his maiden, in fact he only did that two starts ago so he wasn’t on the TC radar all the way till April when he ran in the Wood Memorial as a one race winner. However, he didn’t just do well in the Wood, he exploded. Running mid-pack off a strong pace he flew home and won by two very easy lengths suddenly becoming a KYD runner out of nowhere. Drawn 14 in the KYD he went back as is his style and whilst he only managed eighth in the end he was running on steadily through traffic and was only beaten three lengths at the post. A much better draw today so things should be a little easier in transit for him and if there is an outsider that may spice up the exotic bets then he may be it.

4 Baffert Royalty Stables Velazquez J R 126 —

Form: 3111-2024
It is hard to think this horse only has eight starts because we seem to have been talking about him forever. He was a huge juvenile winning the BC Juvenile with his usual big finish by two easy lengths and at that point looked like the sort of horse that would be a contender in the TC, in fact I remember mentioning him as a possible KYD winner after his maiden win at AQU. So, into his three-year-old season and once again we have seen his potent finish put him in contention in four starts but so far 2024 hasn’t brought him a win. On the old engine I have a feeling that he would have been almost unbeatable but with this new one that seems to favor on pace styles it is so much harder for these deep closers to get the timing right. Having said that he has still been quite brilliant, his run in the KYD was magnificent from gate 15 and he has been harshly treated by the draw monster all year, so I have a feeling that today may be his chance.

5 Good Memories Mb Stables Moore R L 126 —

form: 1-011
Just four starts and three wins, this may just be the Mb secret weapon as he comes here fresh, drawn well and in very good form. His running style seems to change with the race pace, being a front runner off a slow pace when wining the Rushaway and then turning into more of a closer to just win the Lexington. That flexibility can be priceless, and we see that in so many horses from this stable that it can’t be an accident. If you like him there is nothing that should put you off although with only four starts the hustle of a big field can sometimes work against them.

6 Test The Waters Mb Stables Gaffalione T 126 —

Form: 1000223-1420
His form figures in his first year are pretty uninspiring but let’s not forget that this horse was second in the BC Juvenile Turf and never beaten far in some of the top two-year-old races. Although he won on debut on an off track, I am not sure he likes it that much, so drier conditions today may help, and I would certainly put his poor run in the KYD down to the going. So, what of his chances here? Well, he is an on-pace sort and that ticks the race engine box, but I do feel that stalkers can get a little vulnerable against a strong front runner and that to me is what has happened in his last two starts. He certainly should run better than the 16th place he finished in the KYD, but I am not sure I can find enough excuses for him to forgive him that poor effort. He will have his supporters and a win would not surprise, but of the three Mb runners I feel like he may be the one to struggle most.

7 Double Entendre Riggins Racing Hernandez R M 126 —

Form: 0100-134
Formerly this stable was one of the biggest and best but then took a break. Whatever the reason for their comeback they have gone into it with the same enthusiasm and once again are one of the biggest and brightest quickly building back a strong stable. To me however I am not sure this one is quite up to this sort of race, sure his effort in the SA Derby was huge but that is the only real piece of form that says he can be a contender and it is hard to put him on top because of that. He ran from a rotten draw in the SA Derby and was beaten less than a length into fourth so it was a great run and his three starts on turf prior to that may skew his form figures a little so you can build a case for him, but it is one that needs a little imagination.

8 Ocean Storm Greyfriars Stable Rodriguez Jam 126 —

Form: 212221000-4020
One of the more experienced in the race he started his race career very early and ran nine times as a juvenile. The winner of the grade one Pharaoh, it gave him a chance at the BC but in his next three starts he wasn’t to repeat that win. After a fourth in the Davis on seasonal reappearance he was bought by his current owner for $250.000 from Riggins Racing and did manage to fulfill the new owners hopes by getting into the KYD. He earned his spot with a nose second in the SA Derby running from a good position and nearly getting home, that effort alone makes him a real chance in this race. Onto the KYD and he went back from a widish draw but made up loads of ground to end up seventh in a bit of a black book run. I guess the question here isn’t his ability but where he ends up in the running, if he gets too far back, he may repeat his KYD run but if he can lay up in the top half of the field early on then he could be a real contender.

9 Run Forty Asgar Silvera Ru 126 —

Form: 1332311-234
This trainer is one of those trainers that flies under the radar a little as they have a great record and always get the best out of their horses. After a busy juvenile campaign where he mopped up the PA state bred races, he was set to try for the TC right away and ran a great race in the Holy Bull to be a very close second. He again ran well in the Fountain Of Youth when a close third and looked like he was going to make the KYD field but then had the excruciatingly hard to swallow fourth place finish in the FL Derby that saw him miss the race. His form figures spell consistency and he is as honest as they come so wherever he finishes he will run his heart out. Does he have the X factor to win? I am not sure but a top four finish could be on.

10 Excoriator Jerry Garcia Racing Saez L 126 —

Form: 010-1110
Pretty easy to miss as a juvenile he came into his own at three and ended up many people’s selection to win the KYD last time out. His run for the roses started with a win in the San Vicente and by the time he won the Holy Bull people were beginning to sit up and take notice. His final pre-Derby start was in the Ruby Stakes where he made it three from three and when he was given a great draw in the Derby it looked like this veteran of the game was about to see the big time again. He ran well in the Derby tracking the leaders throughout but when they hit the stretch, he just couldn’t find a finish on the off track and plugged away for sixth. A dry track today and we may see this great player’s name up in lights again.

11 Demonic Chant Riggins Racing Lopez P 126 —

Form: 42320134-43
A glance at this one’s form figures tells us just how consistent he is, and he certainly turned a corner after he was bought from Tockycocky for just $55.000 as a maiden suggesting he is better than his body of work suggests. He seemed an afterthought for the TC after he ran fourth in the Withers and then left qualifying too late when taking third in the Wood Memorial but those two starts confirmed he had the ability to be a contender at this level and he may sneak in here as a bit of an overlooked type. He has been running like a closer since being bought suggesting that is his natural style and that his on-pace style previously had been artificially created. That may be a problem here although there are a lot of closing types so the pace may allow him to lay up a bit nearer than normal. He is a chance although not an obvious one.

12 Backroad Bounty Aer Stables Davis D 126 —

Form: 0421-11202
This stable has spoiled TC parties before, and this is just the sort of horse they can do it with again. He gets harsh treatment from the draw monster yet again so it won’t be easy but he certainly has the ability if it is his day. When he won the SUN Derby, he looked like a natural KYD horse and then followed that up with a close second in the TAM Derby confirming that he was a strong contender. He was a bit flat in the FL Derby but then only got beaten a nose in the Lexington putting him into the KYD picture as an outside chance. He missed the KYD thanks to an off track and maybe a busy campaign and will be freshened nicely for this making him a dangerous runner for the horse outside him. A lot will depend on the shape of this race and where he ends up in run, but I have a feeling that AER could be out to break some hearts with this runner.

13 Bad Debt Hippyheart Beschizza A 126 —

Form: 41142-1341
Well, here we have the “one”, could he take this race and move on to the BEL to become the first HRP TC winner? The draw monster certainly doesn’t want that to happen rather unceremoniously posting him wide but that could play into his hands if he gets the same start he did in the KYD. With so many natural closer’s again in this race he could get the wide gate speed push and get a lead again and we all saw how hard he is to beat if that happens. the track conditions may be the overall factor though and that is the random that we won’t know until the day. In both his starts on good going he has started well enough to lead and dug deep to hold on but in his other two starts this year on a faster track he hasn’t looked as strong at the end or quick enough at the start. We will all be cheering for him, and this is such a great thrill for the trainer who bred him that you can’t help but support their dreams. Good luck Hippyheart we will pray for a shower of rain and a fast start and then let the racing Gods decide.

14 Hoku D J C Racing Stables Centeno D E 126 —

Form: 1111-340
There is always a couple of horses in the run up to the TC that you look at and think what could’ve been. This one along with Baffert fall into that category but whilst Baffert has finally got a good draw this one finds himself out in the cheap sets once again. Unbeaten as a two-year-old he suffered his first defeat on seasonal debut in the Southwest, but he was only beaten a neck and still looked on track to be a KYD contender. He got the car park in the Rebel but still ran a super race to be a close fourth so it came down to the AR Derby as to whether he would take his place in the Derby. Once again, he was hung out in a wide gate and he ended up running a poor race to be 12th, beaten a fair way. Onto the Preakness and not the KYD and once again he finds himself wide a real knife in his career as he struggles to get back to his impressive two-year-old days. So much will depend on the race engine for him to win that it is hard to pick him out. I would love to see him run well and he deserves a break but today may not be that day.

SUMMARY

Well a tough race to win as a trainer and a tough race to pick a winner as a punter. There will be plenty of support for Mb’s runners and any one of them could win and of course we would all love to see Bad Debt win and make the BEL the most exciting race of the year. However, out of this race I have to go with Baffert who finally gets a decent draw. I know the race engine will try and beat him but if any horse deserves this race it is him. Good luck to all the runners and especially to Hippyheart.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2024, THE TRIPLE CROWN