La Prevoyante Handicap – Grade III
GP Race #6 1 1/2m InTurf Graded Stake
Purse $150.000 For Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward.

1 Sin City Girlz Czech Out Farms Ortiz J L 121 —
Though this is called a handicap there isn’t, as usual, much of a handicap between the highest and lowest rated horses with just 4 Lbs separating them. This is one of the “top weights” probably thanks to her Dowager win last year over this trip. A late bloomer and like many of her ‘type’ she started running as a five-year-old recording over half of her career wins and her first graded stake. She will need to be fast away to beat the wide gate speed push, but if she gets to the front where she likes to be she could be hard to peg back.

2 Greyfriars Red Greyfriars Stable Alvarado F T 117 —

From the top of the handicap to the bottom we come to this four-year-old that isn’t a bad sort but doesn’t have the stakes form of some of these. She ran well last time and has always looked like this sort of trip would suit so she is by no means a no-hoper, and you always have to be wary of how the algorithms work with these handicaps.

3 Lady Hilltopper Black N Gold Stable Gutierrez Mario 121 —

The class of the race, I must admit it is hard to see her beaten. Plagued with some bad draws she finally got her chance in the Rodeo Drive and romped home and then ran a fair race in the BC Fillies and Mares being beaten just three lengths. She gets in with a perfect draw today and whilst this may not be her best trip, I can see her powering home from mid-pack and taking this out.

4 Horing Gal Night Rider Stables Corbett G W 119 —

Beaten a nose by SinCity Grilz in the Dowager, she gets 2Lbs from that mare here so should be able to turn the tables comfortably. She took a while to break her maiden but has improved quickly since with maybe her best run but her worst defeat coming last time when she was drawn horribly in the American Oaks and was taken right out of contention before rattling home. She will have to find her way from the back again today unless the engine or the trainer can do something about it, but she is certainly one of the contenders.

5 Terra Con Alydar Stables Zayas E J 119 —

Another lightly raced improver she went from winning a little race at LAD to winning the grade three Autumn Miss Stakes as favorite next time out, I liked her effort in the Suwanee River last time when flying home from the back to be beaten just a length, but she does pose an interesting question here. A front runner early in her career, a deep closer last time, it will be interesting to see what the engine does to her today, but I am expecting a very competitive effort either way.

6 Drunk Pinata Keikowin Racing Gaffalione T 119 —

The Dowager is the form race for this as this one was third beaten under a length so is closely matched with her rivals again. Another lightly raced mare with only seven starts as a five-year-old she clearly has some latent ability and has proven very effective over these extreme trips.

7 Copper Jewels Winning Link Stables Jimenez A 119 —

Gets into the handicap very nicely here after a very good three-year-old campaign which saw only one win but some great efforts in defeat including a second in the grade one DMR Oaks. An on-speed type which may suit with a few closers today she will have to be strong at the end to hold on if she is going to win this. A decent enough chance in an open race.

8 Beautifully Grusome TwinTowersRacing Beschizza A 117 —

Oh My, just when I thought I was struggling to separate them we come to a filly with bottom weight having her first run on turf but with a list of great grade one efforts. Add to that a trainer that knows how to win and a difficult draw and we have a possible winner at long odds.

9 Ginger Lucy The Sidley Stud Rivera L R 119 —

Her works say she is ready to explode as a five-year-old and we see that pretty often at this time of year. She has been well tried with 25 starts, but her form has always been very respectable and she could’ve just been waiting for that five-year-old boost. A very strong all the way winner in the Via Borghese on Christmas Eve I am looking at her works and feeling like this could be her year.

10 Afar D J C Racing Stables Silvera Ru 119 —

Another in the middle of the handicap and another that has every chance of winning. A very consistent type she has won money in 18 of her 24 starts and whilst she places more than she wins she certainly has the ability to win this. Looking at her running style which of course is almost pointless these days, she looks like she may go back from the wide gate and if she does, she may find some traffic problems. Having said that if she stays wide, she may be the one to find a path.

11 Techfluence High The Sidley Stud Husbands P 121 —

Along with Lady Hilltopper she is probably the class in the race. Twice a graded stakes winner last year she was very disappointing in the BC finishing last after winning the Sands Point previously. The closeness of those races may have been the reason for her uncharacteristic effort in the BC and whilst she can be a little inconsistent, she does have the ability if things go right.

SUMMARY

I had settled on Lady Hilltopper as the winner of this but then I came across Beautifully Gruesome who possesses all the handicap glitches you need to win a race like this. Ginger Lucy may get third, but this is a tight race and there will be noses and necks and dead heats for sure.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES