Nassau Stakes (Grade 2)- $200.000 Purse
WO- For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward
One Mile on the Turf
May 29, 2016
A field of seven is set to go to post in the ninth running of the Nassau Stakes, a Grade 2 event that runs north of the border, for older females on the grass. The race is run at a distance of an even mile for the sixth time, as the first three editions went half a furlong longer. There are a few past winners that have eclipsed $1,000.000 in career earnings, but the honor of the most prolific past winner belongs to Hail To The Chief, who won in 2009 for RNP Stables. Despite her well-conformed nature and chances to be with top stallions, she proved to be unsuccessful as a broodmare, and has since passed on. Five of the seven in the field are three year olds, which probably should not be much of a surprise right now. Tidal Wave, who is certainly the best horse in the field if all was even, is carrying a whole seven pounds more then the five youngsters. Here is our field!
#1- Smoking Nebulae (Drabfantasy, ridden by J S McAleney)- Since maidens winning graded stakes actively occurs within our virtual world, we see the entry of a filly who has only one race under her belt thus far. It wasn’t a maiden, of course, as she was thrust directly into the $75.000 Honey Ryder and finished fourth of six. Looks like her works picked up a little bit after that, and we all know anything is possible here. Isn’t really much more to say about this one at this point in her career. Drabfantasy is the best in the game when it comes to having success with placement like this.
#2- Taco Belle (Lemax Farms, ridden by J M Campbell)- Without question, this filly will make you hungry. She has also made her connections rich over the course of her 26 race career, winning seven of them, and hitting the board in 18 of the races. You don’t have to look far to find the last time she won, either, as that came in her last race, taking the Grade 3 Las Cienegas Stakes over soft SA turf. There is only a 20% chance of rain here Sunday, so based on last week at PIM, things might look good for that! This six year old mare is one of the two in here who are over three years old, and will carry five more pounds then those five. That may make the real question as to her ability to win the race whether or not that will play a large factor.
#3- Polish Dogma (EasyMoney Stables, ridden by S R Bahen)- This Eastern Precedent filly was put on the turf five races ago, and after taking a race to get used to it on a yielding surface, all she knows how to do on the grass is win. Polish Dogma enters the Nassau on a four race winning streak, so her form could not be any better. That streak began modestly in races that will not impress, but all doubts were erased in winning her last race, where she made her graded debut. That was last month, in the Grade 3 Appalachian at KEE. Now, we’ll get to see if she can make another step up from that as she faces some top opposition. Expect her to be able to handle them and be in contention late, potentially from off the pace. Giving her my nod more as a going on a hunch.
#4- Tidal Wave (Paradise Stable, ridden by G L Olguin)- On paper, this six year old mare is the best horse in the field. She has won ten of her 36 career races, and in her last race she looked strong in winning the Royal Heroine Stakes at SA. It would be the sixth graded stake win of her career. In fact in that race, she was so good that it seemed like none of her three opponents that day even got close to her. Twice, Tidal Wave has been a part of BC races. She has been consistent throughout her career, and there is no reason to think that will stop here. If the weights were even, she’d be the obvious favorite. However, she has to carry a whole seven pounds more then five of the runners in this race. The three year olds she meets here are ready to feast on their weight advantage. This isn’t a handicap by name, but for Tidal Wave, it is. Seven pounds is significant.
#5- Shekinah (Blushing Meadows, ridden by L Contreras)- The Arian filly has won two of her five career starts while on the grass, and will be looking to pick up her first stake victory in this race. It will be her fourth such race, and has recently put together a couple of solid runs in a pair of Grade 3’s: The Herecomesthebride at GP, and the Edgewood at CD. The latter of which came on KYO day, and she was second to the highly talented Pretty Little Pirate. Following up that effort certainly makes her a threat in this race. I also think that this slight reduction in her distance is going to serve her well. The opposition is strong, but don’t look past Shekinah in here.
#6- Track Star (Heavens Own, ridden by D Moran)- Heading into her last race, the Campanile, which I was also able to cover, I felt that a win in that race could really springboard her into bigger and better things. She had been solid leading up to that $100.000 CA-bred race, but was lacking that signature win. On the 1st of May, she finally got it. A week later, instead of preparing her for her next race, Chili King Stables was dotting the I’s of a private sale agreement, sending her to Heavens Own for $145.000, a figure that seems a little low based on that race. Why the sale so quick? Did Chili King feel she maxed her potential and wanted to cash out, or did Heavens Own simply want her that much to build on that? Whatever you feel, bet on her accordingly.
#7- Narly Kruz (Brave, ridden by G Boulanger)- On the outside, we may just have our horse to beat in this field. Narly Kruz is a very consistent horse, winning half of the race in which she has participated, four of eight, and she has never failed to hit the board in her career. Unlike others who might make that claim and have been in small fields, Narly Kruz has accomplished that with five of her races being in a field of nine or more. She has two graded stake wins so far, with the last one coming in her most recent start, the FL Oaks at TAM in March. Going back further, she was also the runner up to Childe Of Nature in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf last October. However, she hasn’t raced in two and a half months, and doesn’t have a public work since the end of March. It’s a little eye opening and raises some concern about her lack of starts as a three year old, particularly for an otherwise very active trainer. This is why I am leaving her off from my picks.
Prediction: 3-6-5-4
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
