The Alabama, Purse $600.000, Grade 1, One and ¼ miles, Dirt for 3 Year Old Fillies

Today at Saratoga the headliner is the Grade 1 Alabama, and even how big this race is it has to take a back seat to the racing action at Del Mar for maybe the only weekend out of the year. This race brought out the big gun 3 year old fillies as everywhere you look there are graded stakes winner in this field. The field also drew 13 entries so there are many owners who think and hope they have a chance at this big pay day. What horse can work out a trip and get to the wire first? Let’s take a look at the field:

1-Danzig Senorita (Nolespan Racing)- She is not one of the graded stakes winner in this field, in fact she boasts only 1 career win and that was a maiden score. The positive is the win occurred last time out and it came at today’s distance. The problem is it came at ELP in the mud in a small 5 horse field of maidens. She is really going to have to step up to compete with some of the top fillies in the game right now. Her most recent mile work on July 28^th makes me think that she may be just a cut below some of these horses, but If it rains this one may have a better shot at getting a pay check.

2-The Reaper (Hawaiian Shirt Guy)- She is the former BC Juv champion and also came back and won the KY Oaks this year so her form has continued on from last year. She has only won 1 start so far this year but it was a big one, and since that win she has missed the board in her next 2 starts. Both of these races however were on a sloppy track so that could be an excuse that would seem to fit for her, even though in 2014 she did win on an off track. Since her last race she has one public 6 furlong work which was just a tick slower than some of her earlier works such as ones going into the KY Oaks. Has she just lost a little step after winning some of the big races? I don’t think so and she should be considered a contender here.

3-Hydro (Team 7 Illusions)- She has won 3 of 6 starts in 2015 and all 3 of those wins have come in stakes company. In those 6 starts she has only missed the board 1 time and that came 5 races back so she is in really good form right now. In her last 4 races she has done no worse than 2^nd and has been no worse than a length behind the leader when the race ended. She comes off an impressive wire to wire score in the Grade 2 Indiana Oaks last out, where she beat 6 other horses. Her mile dirt work on August 4^th had to give owner Team 7 Illusions a little cause for concern wondering if she had slowed down, but then she fired off a nice 6 furlong work after that to show that she is ready to roll for this race. She has yet to win a Grade 1 race in her career, can today be the day?

4-Charming Face (MB Stables)- She has run 4 times this year with 2 wins out of those starts. Those wins came back to back in May and June and they came at the allowance and O/C level. She then stepped up to the Grade 1 level on August 1^st where she finished a nice 3^rd 1 length off the winner. She appeared to come out of that race very well and fired off back to back nice 6 furlong public works which is probably why she is coming back after 3 weeks off. This field looks very tough and it may be an uphill battle for her to get her first stakes win against this tough group but based upon the way she is training she may be able to climb up that hill.

5-Danzing Logic (Riggins Racing) She has won 4 career races but all of those races came last year as a 2 year old. In 2015 she has raced 4 times all in graded stakes company and her best races have come in her last 2 races where she got a 2^nd and a 3^rd. She is however a multiple graded stakes winner so there is some class with this filly. The public works on this filly make it very tough for me to determine if she is moving in the right direction or not as she has always seemed to post different work times. Her last public dirt mile work was ok but is slower than some of the others in this field. Can she turn her 2015 racing luck around and get a big win here?

6-T S Razor (MB Stables) She is lightly raced with only 7 career starts with 3 of those starts being wins. She has won a stakes race but has yet to get over the hump and win a graded stakes race. Her dirt mile public works are very impressive and has really drawn my attention to her, and one could argue that she may be the fastest 3 year old filly in the game right now. The problem is she has not put it all together on the track. I am inclined to throw out the last race as it was an off track and don’t feel she likes that, as the win over an off track was against weaker. The 5^th in June she had an outside draw and went to the lead which I don’t think she wanted. So after looking at all of that I think she has a shot in this race, but we will find out later.

7-Team Nebraska (Downwind Stables) She has won 6 lifetime starts however only 1 of those wins have come this year. That win did come in a Grade 1 race however it was her first race of the year. Since that race she has run in nothing but tough races and has managed a 2^nd and a 3^rd and some off the board finishes in those races. This multiple Grade 1 winner absolutely has the class to win this race, but needs to have a turn in her form to get it there. A positive I see is that her public works leading into this race are similar in time to her early year works, the question is has the rest of the 3 year olds surpassed that at this time of the year? I think she still has something left and maybe can turn it around in this race.

8-Wildstile (Sanny Village) She has won 3 lifetime races however none of those wins have come in 2015 as a 3 year old. She has raced 6 times this year and all of them have been in graded stakes races and she has had 2 seconds and a third. She has yet to win a graded stakes in her career but she has been right there on several occasions and just needs something small to change for her to get over that hump. In usually Sanny Village style there are no public works since her last race for me to go on to try and help determine if she is improving or not. I would have to think that she is after her most recent race where she finished a nice 2^nd. We will find out if she can get over the hump and win a graded stakes race.

9- Love Me Do (Maverick Racing) She has won 5 lifetime starts however like several others in this race none of them have been in 2015 as a 3 year old. She has managed a 2^nd and a couple of 3^rd’s in 2015 and all of these races have been at the graded stakes level. Her best run of the year came in her last race where she closed up for a nice 2^nd place finish at Saratoga in a Grade 1 on a sloppy track. Did the sloppy track help move her up, as her last 2 races have both been on sloppy tracks and she finished 2^nd and 3^rd respectively? It is possible as she has a great off track record but her most recent 6 furlong public work shows me she likes a fast track still as well and can’t be ignored in this field.

10- Behrens Bride (Big Jd Racing) She comes into the race in very nice form winning her last 2 races and both of them were big Grade 1 wins, including one over this track. She has also hit the board in 6 out of 7 runs this year. The only question I see about those back to back wins is that they were on a sloppy track and she had yet to win this year on a fast track. Was it the off track that elevated this horse to the level she needed to win a Grade 1 race or is she just maturing at the right time? Its hard to say but in the only public 1 mile dirt work since those wins she slowed down off her workout times going into those Grade 1 wins which has to cause a bit of concern for Big Jd Racing. We will find out if the track comes back fast if she is up to the Grade 1 level on the fast track

11- Rosemari Perfect (Ekli Stable) She has won 3 races in 6 starts this year as a 3 year old including a Grade 2 stakes race 2 races back against older horses. She then stepped up to the Grade 1 level in her next start and also ran against older in a handicap race where she finished 10^th off 11 horses. She appears to have come out of that race fairly well and posted a solid mile dirt work in the only public work since that race. I think getting back to her own age group may help this horse but drawing outside will make the trip a little tougher.

12- Sirens Blaring (D J C Racing Stables) She comes into the race a perfect 4 for 4 this year including a win in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks for his new Owner D J C Racing Stables in her first start for him. She is a multiple Grade 3 winner who Is trying to step up the class ladder and win her first grade 1 race in her first attempt. She appeared to come out of her last race well and has posted some nice public works at the 6 furlong distance. My main question here is can she get the same type stalking trips she has gotten in her big wins from this far outside? We will find out.

13- Plucky Girl (Asgar) She has won 4 career races and all of these races have come on the turf. She was also a recent $25 claim out of an OC race. She has tried the dirt in the past and never managed to hit the board so the move to this race puzzles me a bit. Her public dirt works also does not do anything to get me excited about her chances. With the works and the outside post I think that she will have too much to do to hit the board and may be in a battle at the back of the field.

This is going to be a great race and may propel one of more horses onto the Breeders Cup so it should be very exciting to watch. I have a feeling that there will be a first time Grade 1 winner that comes from this race. Here is my prediction. 6-2-8-3

Warbucks

Categories: Grade I