08/24 The Forego – Grade I
SAR Race #9 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $600.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.
1 Z One Chance John Henry Desormeaux K J
This horse has had many fans since breaking his maiden at the sixth attempt giving us no clue to just how good he would end up. Since that maiden win he has won eight more and gone well over the $1,500.000 earnings bracket. Two of his three grade one wins have come in the same race, the one he won last time out, The Crosby. His other came in the triple Bend over this trip and he certainly has a great record at the longer sprint trips. When you consider just how good his nose win in the Crosby was last time out its hard to imagine him finishing tenth in a grade two but thats what happened in his previous start adding a note of caution over his brilliant win last time out. The draw doesnt suit his running style but the trainer has been in great form since some big purchases earlier in the year and without any serious three year old challengers here he must be a strong winning chance.
2 Oklahoma Mb Stables Sanchez M J
A well tried five year old with 27 starts he has won nine times including The Westchester earlier this year. You couldnt put him in the same class as Z One Chance but he is working just as fast, gets the best draw and has been really consistent in the last two seasons giving hi a shot at this game of Russian Roulette.
3 Out On A Limb Estero Farms Velazquez
Second in the BC Dirt Mile as a three year old this one is good on his day but is so inconsistent its hard to know when that day is. He is a grade one winner and shouldnt be ruled out but his recent form is a little uninspiring although that may be down to difficult draws. He gets a great draw today to try and show his best and is working as well as ever so he has every hope if things go his way.
4 Shanghai Days Night Rider Stables Maragh Ro
This horse has been amazing since being plucked froma nine dollar claimer which he didnt even win recording a couple of black type wins and a close fourth in the Crosby last time out. he has had some nice draws recently and gets all favors again today so shouldnt be far away from the likes of Z One Chance at the end. A slightly slower work last time has a faint alarm bell ringing but there is no reason he is slowing down and he would make a great rags to riches story if he can gain a grade one win here
5 Senor Bay Gdp Inc Gaffalione T
Surprisingly there are only two three year olds in the field and neither of them seem to have form on the same planet as the older horses. It would seem crazy then to expect them to threaten the pay checks, but oh no, this is HRP and the weight difference can turn horses into superstars overnight so we have to look carefully at this ones form. A nice win in the ungraded Morrissey from a bad draw last time out was a good effort and his first win of the year but when you consider that was won in a very similar time to the grade two True North that Peculiar Sensation won last time and he is actually working the same time as his older rivals, well then the impossible suddenly seems possible.
6 Peculiar Sensation Mb Stables Franco M
Beaten just a half length in the Crosby he was on that very fast pace from the off and was just touched off by the closers so it was actually a much better race than it looks on paper. Previously he had won the True North by a neck and was only a length behind in the winner in the BC Sprint the previous year so is clearly a serious sprinter and coming from the powerful Mb Stables you have to rate him very highly. He is working close to the best as well and is drawn fairly so i expect him to be right there at the end.
7 Sonar John Henry Saenz D
Although his form in his last three starts has been pretty average he did win the grade one Carter Handicap four back and has one of the best recent six furlong works in the field. The trainer is in great form so if ever there was a dark horse in this field its this one.
8 Di Farley Gdp Inc Wilson E J
A very good three year old winning the BC Dirt Mile last year he has been suffering a little from four year old itus this year but has recorded two strong wins over this trip and must be respected. His works are still very strong and an all the way win in an SAR open allowance last time will have hi tuned perfectly for this race.
9 Kiss The Snake Nakamura Stables Talamo J
This son of Snakie had been extensively tried over longer trips prior to this summer but really hit his straps when taken back to sprinting recording two great wins in his last two starts. His win in the Vanderbilt Handicap last time from the widest draw was brilliant and although the bottom weight will have helped that day it was a natural progression of some great efforts this year including a close third in the GP Mile. This is a very tough field but he certainly rates a winning chance with some luck in running.
10 Along For The Ride Fractious Bravo J
A real consistent sprinter he is another than can out work them but not beat them this year. This is his specialist trip and he looked good in the Kona Stakes before a good second to Con Artist in the Triple Bend so has proved he is up to the level if the race engine is kind to him.
11 Saturday Khartoum Rousee Ortiz I Jr
This is a tough sort who always gives a good account but this is a really even field and he has to run from way out in gate eleven so will need a bit of luck to have any chance. A length back in both the Kona Stakes and the True North, I can’t see him turning that form around from this gate, but he is a real trier, and he won’t give up.
12 Serengeti Sands TwinTowersRacing Centeno D E
The other three year old in the race he gets a rough draw here but wasnt that far behind in the Crosby last time and its impossible to write off a three year old. If you couple that effort from a nasty draw in the Cosby with some fast works you could easily make a case for him but from out here against a top field it will be mighty tough.
13 Con Artist Mb Stables Beschizza A
The Triple Bend winner was given a go in the Suburban Handicap last time but got way back from a wide draw and ran no sort of race. The previous time he had a bad draw was in the BC Sprint last year and once again he got a long way back and ended up eighth. So what will the Champion trainer do today with him drawn out in 13 for this race. A rabbit?, a forward instruction? we wont know till they cross the line but if he can work his instruction magic then this one is good enough to capitalise.
14 Residue Fractious Bejarano R
The CD winner over this trip, its safe to ignore his last two efforts and he comes back to his best trip again today. I feel for him to win today from this draw he may need an off track because he certainly likes a bit of rain and he will need some help as he will need binoculars to find the rail today.
SUMMARY
Well its toss a coin time because this race really is anybodies. Whoever wins will certainly know its been in a race and whoever picks the winner will be relying on plenty of factors to come into play. For me when i dont know who will win i pick a three year old and though it would probably be the most ridiculous exacta ever at HRP i am going to pick them to run first and second.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
