08/24 The Ballerina – Grade I [BC]
SAR Race #8 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
1 Shake It Off Our Athletes Velazquez J
This evergreen six year old is one of the female stars here at HRP having racked up over $2,500.000 over a stellar career. She has won 30% of all her races including four grade ones so this sort of class holds no fears for her. Though she has spent most of her career at race distances over a mile she has proved more than effective over this trip winning the Humana Distaff in May and placing in every other attempt at seven furlongs. She runs from a fair draw and will have every right to win this race although like all the older horses these days she will have to beat the weight for age first.
2 Kapalua Smokey Stover Alvarado J
On the face of it she is nowhere near Shake It Off but the HRP weight for age is way out of kilter and she comes right into this from the perfect draw. Just lightly raced she has been competing at Statebred grade in her last three running three very good seconds including a very close second in the WO Oaks. My only fear for her is that she may just lack the fight to beat some of these but she is improving all the time and being a three year old could well take her first graded stake.
3 Wbf No Regrets TwinTowersRacing Centeno D E
You can never accuse this trainer of not having a go and once again he sends this four year old to the top grade. She certainly deserves her shot having taken the Distaff Handicap over this trip earlier in the year and she gets a nice draw to give her trainer a chance at what will be a somewhat surprising win.
4 Blazing By Mb Stables Bejarano R
This one really isnt the flashiest of workers but she has some very good form to her name and certainly must be rated a chance on that. She won the Forward Gal over this trip back in February and later ran third in the grade one Ashland before a close third in the Eight Belles. She gets a good draw, Bejarano in the saddle and of course the three year old weight allowance so if you ignore those rather average recent work times she has a lot going for her.
5 Tommy Frazier Fractious Gaffalione T
Out of the three year olds that will probably dominate the olders here this one may just be the best hope. Bought from Joshua Stables for $250.000 she took the Victory Road for that trainer before a very strong second in the grade one Test last time out. What i have liked about her two recent efforts is that she was drawn wide in both starts and closed from a long way back but todays draw will leave her with much less to do and if she sits midpack i cant see anything beating her turn of foot.
6 Indian River Queen South Beach Racing Navarro J
There is a lot to like about this four year old and the fact that she beat the trend and managed to win a threes and up grade two last time will stand her in good stead. That win came in a handicap where she carried top weight but the top weight was only three pounds more than the lightest weight and in this race she has to give 5 Lbs to the three year olds, go figure. The big plus for her is that she is a specialist at this trip and thats important because seven furlongs can be an odd trip and has caught a good few out as its in between sprinting and routing.
7 Crush Space High Voltage Ortiz I Jr
She has no real form to win this but as a three year old and working pretty well she has to be given some sort of chance. My biggest problem with her is that i think she may be better on turf than dirt so for todays race i may have to pass her winning chances over.
8 Sports Creek Estero Farms Van Dyke D
A very good filly last year she has done well this year but has been running against four and up so may find the three’s too tough here. The winner of two graded stakes over this trip this sort of race is certainly within her scope but she will need things to go her way to get the win. An on pace type she was beaten by the wide gate last time and that may be the same again here although a softer pace may see her in there at the end.
9 Sneaky Lexi Aandc Stable Saez L
One of those real honest types that everyone likes to have in their barn this is a stiff test for the busy four year old especially from this kind of draw. A winner of five from eight this year she has won three three’s and up races this year albeit not at this level but it does suggest after a very busy career she is still improving.
10 Red Broom John Henry Talamo J
The stable has been in such good form that you cant write off this runner even from this difficult draw. Bought for $10.000 from Williams 9 this is one of the many that the trainer has picked up cheaper than they look worth and she has run four good races for the owner picking up $170.000 for that $10.000 investment. To be fair she was atleast this good for her previous owner with 5 of her 6 wins coming for them and all of her wins coming on the turf. She switched to dirt last time out and as usual at HRP it made no difference to her form beaten just a nose in the ONT Matron just missing out to a three year old.
11 Starlite Run D J C Racing Stables Franco M
She hit a real purple patch of form winning five black type races in a row culminating in the grade one Beholder Mile back in March. In her three starts since that great run she hasnt done as well with a good third in the Phipps being her best effort. Its hard to weigh her up really it just seems like she stopped improving and flattened out and now she looks just like a good un rather than an emerging star and with this wide draw it will be tough for her to get back to her best.
SUMMARY
The older fillies and mares are well represented here to the extent they may actually have a chance against the three year olds, thats right i did just say that. However history tells us that its unlikely and i will have to go for Tommy Frazier in this one.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
