A Ten Year History of the BEL at HRP

The third leg of the triple crown really does bring in the stamina part of a horses make up as well as that durability to take on three huge races in under 2 months. Many see this race as the ultimate test but many KYD winners arrive at the BEL having beaten most of their rivals at least once so there is a definite advantage going into it for a horse seeking a second or third TC series victory.

Last year’s winner Brittle finished 12th in the farcical KYD of 2020 but took the rest rather than the Preakness and came to the BEL relatively fresh. The KYD winner Royal Assembly proved that 3 races in quick succession doesn’t have to write off your chances in the BEL with a huge run to finish second just a head off Brittle. As we know Royal Assembly never really got over the 2020 TC but he was only 4 lengths off in the Preakness so really wasn’t that far off a Triple Crown.

In 2019 Mb Stables led home a one two with Admiration beating Apples To Oranges. Admiration had missed the KYD but was a close second in the Preakness before winning the BEL whereas Apples To Oranges had been third in the KYD but missed the PRK. The KYD winner Beach Dandy had been close up in the Preakness but weakened right out of the BEL to finish 9th, he was last seen in a SUD Allowance.

2018 saw another one two for Mb Stables as Dream Controlled beat Indistinguishable. Dream Controlled had been seventh in the KYD and missed the Preakness whereas Indistinguishable had won the Preakness but missed the KYD. The Derby winner Pretty Ferro was only a nose behind in the Preakness but went on the speed in the BEL and weakened into fifth.

2017 saw yet another Mb Stables win with Positive Thinking who had been 16th in the KYD but missed the Preakness to come back for BEL glory. The KYD winner who had run 9th in the PRK managed a better show to be second beaten by a length proving that like Royal Assembly you can pick a horse up after winning a KYD and running in the Preakness.

2016 saw Carneyman win after a fifth in the PRK but he didn’t run in the KYD that year whereas the KYD winner Water Mummy didn’t show up for the BEL

2015 went to Deja Steel who didn’t run in either the KYD or the PRK but was once again owned by Mb Stables who began his incredible run of winning the BEL with fresh horses. The KYD winner King Cobra didn’t run in the BEL.

2014 saw Z Jinxed One win after missing the PRK with the KYD winner again not taking his chances. 2013 saw II Matt Kemp take the race after running 12th in the KYD and third in the PRK, Commanding was the KYD winner that didn’t run in the BEL that year. Wounded In Action took the 2012 running after not contesting the KYD or the PRK, the Derby winner Cryptomagic who had run second in the PRK ran home for fifth in the BEL. In 2011 Crown Heights had run second in the KYD, missed the PRK and won the BEL with the KYD winner Willow Grove not taking the field.

2010 saw the closest we have been to a TC winner at HRP before this year as the brilliant Five Fives took the BEL by 9 lengths after winning the KYD and being beaten just a head in the PRK.

So here we are for the 2021 running of the BEL and for the first time we arrive at this day with a potential Triple Crown winner in Howl To The Hound. I suppose the closest comparison with him has to be Five Fives who although not unbeaten was just as dominant as Howl To The Hound in the run up to the KYD. Many have said that it is the space between the races that makes it hardest for a horse at HRP but there are plenty of examples in Five Fives, Royal Assembly, Cryptomagic and Pretty Ferro who have made it through to the BEL and run right up to their best.

BUT and this is a big but, there are many examples of a fresh horse taking the BEL and one trainer that has exploited that in recent years is Mb Stables himself who this time has to sit and hope that something that has been putting its hooves up for the past 4 or 5 weeks isn’t jumping out of his stable to run the race of his life in the BEL.

Other factors that will have some bearing on the BEL are the draw, running styles and going. Generally the history of the BEL has seen a fast racing surface so that may be one factor we can discount but what about draw? Well the average draw for the last ten years has been 7 so there is a slight advantage to those inside of ten although winners in the last ten years include three from wide draws, 10, 13 and last years winner from 16. 

1, 4 and 5 are the most popular draws with 60% of the winners coming from those gates but the spread seems as you would expect with 30% from wide and 70% from inner. The bottom line is, if you are good enough you can win from anywhere.

Running styles is a tough subject because of changes to the race engine but again we see the sort of spread that we expect from HRP with 6 winners out of the ten closing from back in the field and 3 in a more stalking position and the other ones coming from midpack.

So overall i think what we have is a race which seems pretty fair, you can win from wide or inside, you can win from back in the field or stalking and the ground generally stays dry for the BEL. Enough horses have run in all three to suggest that it is entirely possible that a durable horse can run well in all three legs but we can also see the danger of a fresh horse.

Well that is the end of this three part series. The end of the weekend will bring the draw and the runners and we will be able to start piecing together the final part of this fascinating and exciting puzzle.

I will finish with this thought: Every player at HRP is here because we love horse racing and the excitement of winning, we are from different countries and different back grounds, we have different religions and political beliefs. As we sit down at our computer screens or phones to watch the BEL let’s put aside our differences and watch a great race unfold. Whoever wins, be it Howl To The Hound making history or Cheesy or Locomotive or in fact any of the runners, let’s just celebrate the occasion and the moment.

Good luck to all and to all Good luck.

Categories: FEATURED STORIES, TC 2021-2023, THE TRIPLE CROWN