The Dwyer – GIII ($250 Purse)
1 Mile on Dirt for Three Year olds
BEL – July 5th, 2021
Eight three year old colts and geldings will charge the finish line at Belmont on July 5th. Tko and Oleg looking to get back on track after a few months on the grueling TC trail. Some are looking to score the first stakes win of their career. While Rowdy Rb and Golden Treasure hope this is a springboard for bigger things to come.
#1 – Kinch (Whitewater Stables) – A colt who hasn’t won since his maiden back in Oct. 2020 is asked a lot when loading the gate in the Dwyer. Still, his trainer sees those 6F works and knows their competitive. Plus, if you go back to the Smarty Jones in Jan. 2021, Kinch ran a gamely second at this distance, perhaps indicating the angle of Whitewater here.
#2 – Raunchy Bay (John Henry) – Once prized two-year-old who sold for $275, this gelding hasn’t blossomed into the stakes winner that was expected. Another with only the maiden win, this one boasts a competitive mile work and trio of second place efforts that prove he can run when he’s motivated. Fresh out of the auction, sold for $50.01 by Estero Farms, new owner/trainer John Henry hopes he pushes the right buttons to get this gelding back on track.
#3 – Indie Bread (Spankys Barn) – A horse with heart, for those who believe that trait. Indie Bread has only finished outside of the top three twice in his eleven race career, winning five of those– three this year, including the Shakertown. A well rounded horse that seems to bounce from dirt to turf and sprint to mile, and back and forth– it’s clear from the works he’s sharp and ready to run again, this time looking to score in the dirt mile Dwyer.
#4 – Tko (Fractious) – The Wood Memorial winner had a couple of rough trips on the TC trail, finishing with a good effort in the KYD to get 6th before a lackluster finish in the PRK say him fade by 6 lengths to 8th. He comes back to the Dwyer today after a much needed break, looking to showcase why he shouldn’t be forgotten after the TC trail.
#5 – Oleg (Arindel) – This colt had a rough go through the TC trail. Never finishing near the front end, nor did he ever look game enough to threaten those who did. A poor outing in the AR Derby saw him finish 13th by 10 lengths and it didn’t get much better in the Preakness– 14th by 10 lengths. After one last attempt at 1 mile and 1/16th, which Oleg failed to thrive, it appears Arindel will cut him back to a mile. Looking back to the May 4th work at a mile (1:36.2), this might be exactly what Oleg needs.
#6 – Rowdy Rb (Mb Stables) – After scoring in the Tx Derby with a $300 purse, Mb steps this gelding up to the Dwyer with open company. The works are sharp and this one always seems give his best shot coming down the stretch. Winning three of his four races this year, I expect this one to be a threat throughout and running them down near the wire.
#7 – Accountant (D J C Racing Stables) – At first glance you might scratch this one off in your program, but it you look closer you might find a live long shot. His effort on May 1st in the Day Mile Stakes wasn’t terrible. He finished 5th after being up front most of the race, scoring a 92 speed figure. And if you go back to December 20th, 2020 you’ll find he won the RP Springboard Mile in a deep closing effort. So perhaps this distance with a chance of tactics surprises the field here?
#8 – Golden Treasure (Mb Stables) – Rowdy Rb’s stablemate claims the outside post in the Dwyer after a 6F win in the short field Woodstock Stakes. Lightly raced this year, Golden Treasure has won two of his three starts with a good third to show in the Bay Shore GIII. The mile work fits right in with this field as Mb’s second entry looks to stretch out to a mile on the dirt for the first time. He’s form shows a preference to being on the front, which historically causes issues when not in short fields, so we will see if that is the route this one takes in the Dwyer.
Jive’s Prediction:
Golden Treasure will spit out of the gates and go right to the front. Leading around the turn, he’ll begin to get run down and fade, giving way to stablemate Rowdy Rb for the win.
Tko will out duel Indie Bread for second place, forcing Spanky to settle for another third place effort from his gelding.
Meanwhile Accountant will close from well back, passing the field near the wire to claim fourth place.
Jive’s Selection – 6-4-3-7
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES
