Breeders Futurity – Grade I [BC] [KYD]
KEE Race #6 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $600.000 For Two Year Olds.
Well as we enter the last chance saloon for the Breeders Cup we see the usual full field of hopefuls that will vie for a spot on the big day. There is the usual mixture of the three Mb runners, plenty of talent and no doubt a dark horse or two so lets dive straight in to try and work out who will get the slow start, who will travel in which group and which one will get the perfect trip to win:
1 Shoo Fly Lazy Eye Bocachica A
We start off with a horse that has always looked like this sort of trip would suit him. A decent maiden win got him the necessary EPR to get in the big races but he started off with a tough task in the Best Pal where he was drawn the car park. The wide gate speed push helped him stay closer to the pace than he usually does and he ended up a very brave third, beaten less than a length after losing more than that distance in running wide. That effort saw him go to the DMR Futurity as a chance and a great draw looked to have put him in the picture for the win. He was a bit tardy away and had to negotiate some traffic but ended up a running on fourth, another solid effort at the top level. So what of his chances today, well the one box is tough for a horse that doesn’t have early speed but this trip has looked right up his alley for a long time and should help him early on. He has some flip flopping form with lake Moko so it will be a race engine lottery as to how they finish today but he has to be a good chance.
2 Moytoy Bay Smokey Stover Saez L
The top few breeders tend to dominate these two year old races and this trainer has certainly laid claim to that accolade. The biggest question for this gelding is of course the trip as the furthest he has gone so far in five furlongs but in both his runs and both his victories he has looked like he would run further so that may not be a major concern. He gets the perfect draw today and any unbeaten horse has to be taken seriously but this is where the next question mark comes and that is the time between his last race and today. His recent work looked like he may need the run today but if the trainer has got him fit enough he must be a major chance.
3 Range Rover Arindel Jaramillo E
Another unbeaten horse he has won both his races by big margins and his last win in a big ticket allowance at SAR was as good as any stakes win. His follow up works have been right in the ballpark and he is drawn perfectly and comes from a stable that has gone very quickly into the top four of five stables in the game and certainly comes under the umbrella of a top breeder so there are lots of ticks in boxes for him. The thing i like about him is that in both his races over six furlongs one of fast ground, one on slow he has been able to easily stalk the pace and then shown a great turn of speed to put the race away and that is an essential ability in these big juvenile stakes races.
4 Shellshocked Alydar Stables Espinoza V
Showed he will get the trip with a dour win over a mile last time. He deserves a shot here and gets in a nice gate but it has to be said that his form so far doesn’t quite measure up to some of the principals in this race. Having said that he is in it and certainly improved after a gelding operation in that win last time so the door is open, he just has to walk through it.
5 Obviously Mb Stables Talamo J
The best drawn but the worst form of the three Mb Stables entries it is worth noting that there has been improvement after his gelding operation and that may be the reason the stable has thrown this maiden into this race. His last three turf efforts weren’t as good as his first three dirt efforts so this surface will be a plus but the only real advert for this horses chances are his works in September after being gelded. Can he go from six race maiden loser to grade one stakes winner just because he was gelded a month ago….well yes, this is HRP so he certainly could.
6 Loko Moko South Shore Stables Franco M
He was looking like an early season start when going three of three with two ungraded stakes wins and when he lost his unbeaten tag by a head in the Best Pal it certainly didn’t tarnish that reputation. Sadly in the DMR Futurty last time he suffered from the slow start epidemic for which there is no known cure just yet but that may have been an effort by the stable to help him see out the seven furlongs or it may have been the start virus, today we will find out. So the trip is the obvious question mark but i don’t think a slower instruction helps much with that problem with this race engine so maybe his best hope will be to fly the gate and get to the lead and then just see how that works out.
7 Default Setting Mb Stables Hernandez R M
A rather aptly name horse these days he has been really solid in his last two and was impressive when taking out the Funny Cide last time. I think he will see out the trip OK but this is his first real race out of state breds so there are a few class questions to answer and whilst he certainly could keep improving and win this he is just one of many that fall into that catagorey. The stable often gets one of their three runners to run the perfect trip, if it is this one then he would be a solid chance for the win.
8 Sufficient Mb Stables Bridgmohan S X
After disappointing in the FT Futurity after one of those infamous slow starts he has been much better in his last two, most notably in the Simcoe last time when going down by a head after coming strongly from mid field. He is hard to weigh up but this trip could be just what he is looking for to break through but i wasn’t encouraged by his recent mile work and he may be the second string to his stable mate inside him.
9 Ben Nevis Hippyheart Velazquez J R
The third unbeaten colt in the race i don’t think this mountain will be too difficult to climb and he has a chance to get to the top. After a very early maiden win he had a long break before we saw him again but jumped up in trip by six furlongs in an allowance at BEL and looked very good in cantering home by three lengths. He will certainly have come on from that run and it is great to see the trainer here with their home bred albeit running from a tough draw. If things go well for him in transit and he can cope second up after a spell then i reckon he could be one of those dark horses in this race.
10 Tiznow Fractious Elliott S
Moved nicely through his maiden races until he won a big ticket SAR Maiden on his fourth attempt but came un-stuck in a big way in his last race when faced with an off track in the Hopeful. Starting fast from a wide gate he looked like a greyhound doing doggy paddle down the stretch and was a long way back at the end running a race that was too bad to be a reflection of his ability and more than likely just a reflection of the going and maybe a poor choice of instructions in the conditions. The problem is we don’t really know and this is a very tough race and a very tough draw to turn that around.
11 A Nation Of Doubt Fractious Cedillo A
The trainer has certainly came out worst in the race for the draw with both their runners with horrible gates. He was soundly beaten by Ben Nevis last time in a BEL Allowance from a decent gate so it is hard to see him turning that form around and he may have to settle for second best with his stable mate let alone the rest of the field.
12 Cop With Coffee Martyparty Silvera Ru
This is the other dark horse in the race for me because he has two maiden runs over shorter trips and did OK and then exploded for a huge win when upped to the mile. Put that huge win with a sub 1.37 work and we have a very serious racehorse in the making. The draw monster has been very unkind but he looks like a closing type and there may be a fast pace here with a few dodgy stayers in the race so wide and late may be the way to go. I will be watching this one pretty closely.
13 Brandon U Smoktaty Nakamura Stables Gutierrez Mario
Won a big ticket allowance at SAR from the car park so this draw may not hold too many fears for him. My biggest fear for him is the trip especially if he goes up on the pace from here but the way he won his maiden and that allowance from just off the speed says that if the magic instruction is found he could be a threat.
14 Drop Off Williams9 Gomez E P
Finally we find the Williams9 runner out with the picnics and car bonnets in the car park. It is a shame because on a dry track i would’ve given him a chance but he ran home for a very close third in the Sanford from this type of gate so just maybe along with Cop With Coffee he could find a wide path at the right time. Even with this draw i would be giving him a chance and another plus is that he gets the jockey who won on him from a wide gate before.
SUMMARY
Well i rather like the two wide runners here in Drop Off and Cop With Coffee but both would need a solid early pace and a bit of race engine luck so it is hard to be firm about that decision. Of the better draws we have Range Rover and Shoo fly who look to have big chances and of course if you use the formula of big barn, best draw then Moytoy Bay would have to come into it. Of the others i was really impressed with Ben Nevis last time but lets face it there is one horse that is named to win this race. A maiden after six attempts, beaten out of sight in his only stakes start but recently gelded and looks to have had some fairy dust sprinkled his way, Obviously….surely not.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
