The With Anticipation – Grade III
SAR Race #5 1 1/16m InTurf Graded Stake
Purse $175.000 For Two Year Olds.
1 Barry Mb Stables Franco M 119 —
Still a maiden but that means very little in these two-year-olds races especially when they are from the Mb Stables ranks. Built like a turf router he recently pulled out a sub 1.36 work for the mile as if to prove the point and with the inside gate you would expect a perfect on pace run and probably a win. There are better horses on paper but that usually doesn’t matter.
2 Carson G Maxmillion Farm Bridgmohan S X 119 —
Gapped them in his maiden over this surface and trip and has worked 1.36 flat since so is clearly in the right race. He gets the perfect draw for the turf king making him a live chance in a race that will put one of these in the BC.
3 Soviet Union Whitewater Stables Geroux F 119 —
The benchmark work for this race is between 1.35 and 1.36 and category nicely into that category with a strong 1.35 and 2 work. He proved he could run at this level with a fair enough fifth in the Victoria Stakes but he looks to be better on turf so that run can only be a class guide rather than a form guide for this. He gets a good draw and must be in with a chance.
4 Ode To The Storm Arindel Lezcano J 119 —
After two poor runs on the dirt, he looked a better horse when winning a big-ticket SAR maiden on the grass. He will need to take some improvement out of his pre-race work before that win but that would be expected, and he too must be in this race with a chance.
5 Truth About Jokers La Canada Racehorses Castellano J J 119 —
It is somewhat ironic and maybe a good guide to just how hard it is to pick a winner in these two-year-old races that the fastest worker in the race is a five-race maiden. In fairness to him all those maidens have been at a high level and two of them on off tracks, so I expect a much better effort today, if the track stays dry. The trainer has been pulling top two-year-olds out of a hat this year and this could be yet another if things go his way.
6 Convincing Diablo Diablo Velazquez J R 119 —
The other top worker in the field he has always run like a router. Four seconds and a win are good credentials, but it has to be said that his last effort had something of the spectacular about it. It is true that the race engine and its little nuances can make a horse look a lot better than it is but the way he finished when second in a mile allowance last time suggests that if he can make that sort of run a moment sooner, he would blow these away.
7 Charismatic Leader Nakamura Stables Panici L 119 —
His maiden win was better than it looked on paper because it was in a memorial race which drew a strong field. A little disappointing in his follow up race, I think he has been crying out for this trip and gets his chance today.
8 Sinche Pree Arindel Saez L 119 —
Another runner that won his maiden in the SAR mud it is difficult to weigh up wet form if it stays dry so we won’t really know how he will fair until the dust settles on this race. You could easily say he is good enough having won over this surface and distance in a big-ticket maiden, so it just remains to be seen how he handles the wide gate.
9 Sin City Threshold Davis D 119 —
Looked at home on the grass and in the mud when taking a little FE maiden last time, his lack of form at this level has been handicapped further by the draw monster as so often happens so he will have to be better than his trainer hopes to get in the money. Not saying no though.
SUMMARY
It is hard to pick which one of these will have the class gene required but, in those cases, it is best to just stick with the top trainers as often it turns out that theirs do.
On works it is between Truth About Jokers and Convincing but a pin would give you an equal chance of picking a winner here, so I am going with a wide outside each way bet on Sin City.
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
