The TAM Derby – Grade III [KYD]
TAM Race #12 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $400.000 For Three Year Olds.
As these qualifiers move through, we are starting to build a picture of what the KYD will look like. We have had a few qualifiers so far that have been filled with drama, outsiders, wet ground, crazy early pace, slow early pace it seems more than ever like a “you have to be in it to win it” type situation where every runner must be studied hard to have any chance of picking a winner. The make-up of these races is starting to look familiar, three Mb entries, a couple from the merging super star in Fractious and then Aer, DJC and Royalty trying to crash the party. But every runner needs to be considered here because we certainly have a race on our hands. Here is how they line up:
1 Gold Vault Fractious Geroux F 120 —
We start with the first Fractious entry who draws the inside. Though his form figures do not look inspiring there is plenty of quality about his efforts. Second in the grade one DMR Futurity and then a close fifth in the Champagne he didn’t turn up in the BC ending up a never dangerous tenth, but it could’ve been the result of a busy few months so maybe we should forgive him that effort. He reappeared with a dead heat win in the CA Cup Derby which was a good start but couldn’t build on that in the Davis ending up seventh and never really getting involved. You would have to give him a chance at his best.
2 Back To Reality D J C Racing Stables Ferrer J C 120 —
The stable won a qualifier last week and has an interesting entry here. His form and works aren’t overly interesting, but I have a tingling about this one in the form of a gelding operation a few days ago. If you look at his very best form, he won a big-ticket maiden at CD and swooped late to win the Jerome at the start of this year, if you look at his worst, he was a mile behind in the Withers and well beaten in a State Bred maiden last year. That inconsistency is what may cause him to be written off for this race, but I have seen horses gelded that suddenly run better than their best and that is what is causing that tingling feeling. He may just be another surprise package from the stable.
3 Power Grid Fractious Moore R L 120 —
Won four from four last year before heading to the KY Jockey Club and receiving his first defeat when a gallant second. The stable claimed this one for $50.000 and he went from claimer to stakes winner as so many do, especially from this stable that is on fire this year. His seasonal reappearance in the Southwest came after a longish break and he was drawn wide but even then, his effort was a little disappointing. Having said that he will be much sharper today and has worked well since so it would be no surprise to see him in the points.
4 Gaslight Mb Stables Franco M 120 —
Broke his maiden in a stakes race as a juvenile taking out the Notebook by a head but then was a disappointing favorite in the NY Stallion Series – Great White Way finishing well back in tenth. He took a big-ticket State Bred allowance on seasonal debut and like all the stable runners seems to outwork his form, so it is clear that won’t be the highest level he rises to. Of course, he has a chance because he is from Mb Stables but for me at least he still has a bit to prove before I can visualize him in the KYD field.
5 One Beer South Shore Stables Cabrera D 120 —
Had Gaslight well beaten when taking the NY Stallion Series race last year and ran a highly promising and close third in the Lecompt on seasonal debut putting him right in the mix as a potential qualifier. Ridden on the pace on an off track in the Risen Star he faded into fifth but stalking a decent pace in the wet is often a recipe for disaster so we can forgive him that effort. If things go well for him in the running, he could well be the one to spoil the party for the others here.
6 Maple Mafia Mb Stables Prat F 120 —
Behind One Beer in both the Lecompt and the Risen Star he does seem to have a bit to find to turn the tables in this one. He clearly has ability but again I don’t see him as a standout from the stable, although of course, as I said earlier, anything can win these races. Prat has another chance to undo his bad tactical choices in the Risen Star so maybe the AI has learned something from that ride and will do better today.
7 Numbskull Blazin D Pennington F 120 —
He was making his mark on turf as a juvenile winning the Pilgrim easily before a poor effort in the BC Juvenile Turf. Like any good horse that approaches three his main target became the KYD on the dirt, and he started that campaign well enough with a third in the Springboard Mile. He was poor in the Davis Stakes fading away after being on the pace and that will have his training thinking about a return to the turf and this race may well determine his future.
8 Backroad Bounty Aer Stables Davis D 120 —
Broke his maiden at FE and on the turf on the fourth attempt so at the end of last year he looked a long way from being a KYD candidate. Roll on two months and an age change and suddenly he turned up in the Allison Derby and ground out a narrow win at 20/1 and then went to the SUN Derby where he cruised home from a wide draw at 11/1 and lo and behold, he became a real contender for the KYD. That tends to happen a fair bit and there are very few clues as to why other than something clicked in the form of his computer DNA. His recent form won’t see him starting at long odds today and he could cement himself a runner and one of the favorites for the Derby here.
9 Rearranger Mb Stables Velazquez J R 120 —
The third stable runner and out of the three he looks the standout. Four races and two wins including a strong effort in the Davis Stakes last time to win cheekily mean he is still improving, and he will probably be a lot of people’s choice as yet another Mb KYD runner. He was beaten by Back To Reality in the Jerome though and that horse won’t be the favorite today, so there is that, but this horse looks to have more improvement in him and will be confidently expected to turn the tables.
10 Ocean Storm Greyfriars Stable Rodriguez Jam 120 —
Won the grade one Pharoah last year but has been disappointing since and recently changed hands for $250.000 in the hope that the stable had secured a KYD chance. He was fair in the Davis Stakes when fourth and we know he has ability so writing him off would be a big mistake but certainly on the recent showing he will need to find something extra from this wide draw.
11 Cobra Fractious Lopez P 120 —
Another that looks no more than an “in it to win it” type he certainly has some ability but has looked a few lengths off the top level so far. He was gelded after just fair efforts in the DMR and Breeders Futurities and it looked to have done the trick as he dug deep to win the Golden State Juvenile, but he hasn’t backed that effort up since and has a few lengths to find with a few runners in this race.
12 Postol Royalty Stables Van Dyke D 120 —
Way out in the car park, I think we find the one that could do some damage. A maiden as a juvenile, he won his maiden nicely on an off track as he turned three and then ran a cracker from the wide draw when a hard closing second in the Davis Stakes. I have a feeling that if the pace is strong enough, he will again be flying home wide and could get his timing right this time. Of course, there is the other option that a gaming button could be selected, or the AI could see him take the wide gate speed push and put him in the lead. Either way I really like his chances especially as wide horses very often seem to finish better than inside ones.
SUMMARY
For me this race could go to Postol. He will need the random luck of pace or no pace to have his best chance but that may be worth the gamble with the wide gates being a little more successful than they have in previous years. Rearranger and Backyard Bounty set up another clash by two big TC rivals in AER and Mb and that will be fun to watch for the casual observer. Either of those could win and they will probably be first and second favorites.
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
