The With Anticipation (Grade III) brings seven 2-year-olds to Saratoga on Saturday, September 5, 2026, for 1 1/16 miles over the inner turf and a purse of $225.000. Mb Stables has captured the race four times—in 2014 with Royal And Regal(1), 2018 with Face Your Fears, 2021 with Triple Spirit(1), and 2024 with Bitcoin Bobby—and is represented this year by N Y P D. Alvarado J won three consecutive editions from 2017 through 2019, while Gaffalione T, who rides Tumbling Down this year, won the race for Mb Stables in 2021 and again in 2024. The 2026 edition is a true developmental test: none of the seven entrants has yet recorded a route start, making their existing turf form and ability to carry it beyond seven furlongs particularly important.

1. Spritzer — Temulac Farm / Velazquez J R — Odds: 5-2

Spritzer enters with the most straightforward path to success. The Temulac Farm colt has made three starts and already owns both a victory and a runner-up finish. His only turf appearance came at Parx on July 2 over 7 1/2 furlongs, where he was prominent immediately, took command by the second call, increased his advantage through the next call and won by two lengths. That performance is particularly relevant because it came on firm turf and at a distance only one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than today’s assignment. His subsequent work pattern includes several six-furlong turf drills, including a yielding-turf move at Keeneland on August 5. Chance: strong. Spritzer has the best combination of established turf form, proximity to today’s distance and tactical speed, making him the horse to beat.

2. N Y P D — Mb Stables / Santana R Jr — Odds: 6-1

N Y P D is the only entrant who has already faced graded stakes competition, having contested the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga on July 4. He was unable to threaten there, finishing ninth after racing fifth through the opening stages, but he had previously broken his maiden at Aqueduct. All three of his starts have come on dirt, so this will be his first turf race as well as his first route. Mb Stables has clearly prepared him for the surface change with three recent turf works, including two six-furlong drills and a one-mile turf work. Chance: moderate. His graded-stakes experience is valuable, but he must prove that he can transfer his form to turf while stretching substantially in distance.

3. Tumbling Down — TwinTowersRacing / Gaffalione T — Odds: 12-1

Tumbling Down has one victory from three starts, with that success coming in his debut at Turf Paradise over 4 1/2 furlongs. He subsequently finished fifth in an allowance at Churchill Downs and sixth over seven furlongs at Albuquerque on August 8. His most recent race showed him settling well behind the leaders early before improving his position somewhat, but he did not make a sustained late challenge. He has never raced on turf, though TwinTowersRacing gave him a six-furlong firm-turf work at Monmouth on August 18. Chance: outsider. He needs improvement from his recent dirt performances and must demonstrate both turf ability and added stamina.

4. Lions Pride — La Canada Racehorses / Bridgmohan S X — Odds: 3-1

Lions Pride may offer the most intriguing alternative to Spritzer. After finishing fifth and third in his first two dirt starts, he switched to turf at Parx on July 18 and immediately improved, winning a 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight by three lengths on soft ground. His running line is important for today’s longer race: he was sixth through the opening half, advanced sharply into second and then took over decisively. That ability to settle and finish could become increasingly valuable at 1 1/16 miles. His preparation since then includes two six-furlong turf works and a one-mile turf drill at Del Mar. Chance: very strong. Lions Pride has already demonstrated that turf suits him and his closing progression at 7 1/2 furlongs suggests the additional distance could work in his favor.

5. Lemon Crush — Red Fox Farms / Hernandez R M — Odds: 10-1

Lemon Crush broke his maiden on dirt at Turf Paradise in April but has struggled in his two starts since. His only turf race came in a five-furlong stakes at Gulfstream on May 9, where he raced eighth early and finished 12th. He later finished eighth in a six-furlong claiming race at Saratoga and was gelded in August. Red Fox Farms has subsequently concentrated on turf preparation, including two six-furlong Saratoga turf works and a one-mile turf drill. Chance: limited but not impossible. His race record on turf is weak, so he must show that the longer training program has produced a meaningful change.

6. Street Taco — Greyhound / Esquivel E — Odds: 5-1

Street Taco owns only two starts but made a substantial turnaround when switched to turf. After finishing sixth in his dirt debut at Aqueduct, he moved to 7 1/2 furlongs on firm turf at Parx on July 20 and won a maiden claiming race by six lengths. He was sixth early, advanced to fourth, took over by the third call and continued clear through the finish. That running pattern provides encouraging evidence for the stretch to 1 1/16 miles, although the class jump from a maiden claiming race into a Grade III is significant. Chance: live contender. His turf victory was decisive and came close to today’s distance, but he now must demonstrate that the same performance holds against graded-stakes opposition.

7. Mexican Dawn — Rock Creek / Curtis B — Odds: 4-1

Mexican Dawn has progressed steadily through three starts. After finishing sixth on debut and third in his second race, he switched to turf at Fort Erie on July 6 and won a seven-furlong maiden special weight. He raced fifth through the first two calls, moved into third and then completed the rally to win by three-quarters of a length. Like Lions Pride, he has already shown the ability to make up ground rather than depending upon an uncontested lead. His subsequent work tab includes two six-furlong turf drills at Turf Paradise. Chance: strong. Mexican Dawn is moving in the right direction and has the running style to appreciate additional distance, although he must prove that his Fort Erie maiden win translates to Grade III company.

Pace Structure & Race Outlook

Spritzer is the clearest candidate to establish or contest the early pace. In his 7 1/2-furlong turf victory he was already second at the opening call before moving to the lead and remaining there. None of the other established turf winners has shown the same consistent need to race prominently.

That could leave Spritzer with a tactical advantage, particularly if Velazquez J R can establish comfortable early fractions.

Behind him, Street Taco has shown the ability to advance from midpack, while Lions Pride and Mexican Dawn have both demonstrated effective late progression. Lions Pride’s move from sixth to second before winning his turf debut gives him perhaps the most convincing closing pattern for the longer distance. Mexican Dawn similarly came from fifth to win at seven furlongs.

N Y P D is more difficult to place because all of his race experience has come on dirt, while Tumbling Down and Lemon Crush also enter with significant surface questions.

The likely shape therefore favors Spritzer if the pace remains controlled, while a more demanding early tempo would improve the prospects of Lions Pride, Mexican Dawn and possibly Street Taco.

Projected Finish

1st — Spritzer — 5-2
2nd — Lions Pride — 3-1
3rd — Mexican Dawn — 4-1
4th — Street Taco — 5-1
5th — N Y P D — 6-1

Projected Winner — Spritzer

Spritzer gets the narrow selection over Lions Pride. His July 2 victory gives him the most directly applicable performance in the field: a win over 7 1/2 furlongs of firm turf in which he demonstrated enough early speed to take command and enough finish to remain clear. Today’s 1 1/16 miles represents only a modest extension from that race.

Lions Pride is the main danger. His three-length turf victory came from well off the early pace, and his strong progression through the latter stages suggests that the additional distance could actually enhance his effectiveness.

Best Value — Street Taco at 5-1. His six-length turf maiden victory came against lesser competition, but the manner in which he advanced from sixth to first makes him one of the more interesting improving runners.

Live Longshot — N Y P D at 6-1. He lacks turf experience, but he is the only horse in the field with previous graded-stakes exposure and enters after an extended series of turf works for four-time With Anticipation-winning owner/trainer Mb Stables.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES