The $500.000 SUN Derby takes center stage at Sunland Park on Sunday, February 15, 2026, presenting a 1 1/16-mile test on the main dirt track for three-year-old colts and geldings seeking valuable Kentucky Derby qualifying points. As one of the important developmental stakes events on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, this race has a storied history dating back to 2011 and has been won by numerous talented runners. Among connections with previous success, Mb Stables has won three editions (2021, 2022, 2025) and seeks to add a fourth victory to their tally, while D J C Racing Stables won in 2018. Rafael Bejarano has won this race twice (2011, 2012) and rides Art Of Boom, seeking to add a third SUN Derby victory. Johnny Velazquez has also won twice (2024, 2025) and rides Down To Earth in this year’s renewal. The race has attracted a competitive field of twelve talented three-year-olds, each seeking to add their names to this prestigious list of winners and earn crucial Kentucky Derby qualifying points as the Road to the Kentucky Derby intensifies.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

Daring Ned represents The Sidley Stud with Paco Lopez (10/1 odds) in the irons. This chestnut three-year-old colt by Neds Influence has won three of nine career starts while earning $266.800, posting his best speed figure of 93. His most recent outing on January 17 at Fair Grounds saw him finish fourth in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at 1 1/16 miles, carrying 122 pounds and beaten 1/2 lengths. Prior to that on December 6, he finished ninth in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct at 1 1/8 miles on a muddy track. Earlier on November 2, he won the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine at 1 1/16 miles by 3/4 lengths, and on October 4, he finished fourth in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita. His recent workouts show solid preparation, including a one-mile work in 1:38.1 at Parx Racing on February 3. While he’s shown quality form with his Grey Stakes victory and competitive Grade 1 placing, his disappointing Remsen Stakes effort raises questions about whether he can rebound against this competitive field.

Country Kingz represents Arindel with Daniel Centeno (12/1 odds) guiding this gray three-year-old gelding by State Of Fury. With two wins, two seconds, and one third from five career starts and earnings of $68.200, he enters off a victory on January 25 at Gulfstream Park at 1 1/8 miles by one length in claiming company, carrying 119 pounds. He was gelded on January 27 and was claimed from Family Racing for $16.000. Prior to that on November 27, he won a maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park at one mile by one length. Earlier on October 29, he finished second at Parx Racing at one mile in maiden company. His recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a bullet one-mile work in 1:36.4 at Gulfstream Park on February 3. While he’s shown improvement with consecutive victories, his complete lack of stakes experience and the significant step up from claiming company to Grade 3 competition raise major questions about whether he’s ready for this assignment.

Down To Earth represents Riggins Racing with Johnny Velazquez (4/1 odds) aboard this gray three-year-old gelding by Chase My Tail Lights. With five wins and one second from nine career starts and earnings of $962.750, he brings exceptional credentials to this assignment. His most recent outing on January 17 at Fair Grounds saw him finish ninth in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at 1 1/16 miles, carrying 122 pounds and beaten two lengths. Prior to that on December 20, he won the $300.000 Remington Park Springboard Mile at one mile by 1/2 lengths. Earlier on October 31, he finished fifth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Del Mar at five furlongs on turf, and on October 3, he won the Grade 3 Futurity Stakes at Aqueduct at six furlongs on turf by 3/4 lengths. He also won the $1,000.000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs on turf and the $100.000 Tyro Stakes at Monmouth Park on turf. His recent workouts show solid preparation, including a six-furlong work in 1:10.3 at Santa Anita on January 24. His proven stakes-winning form and graded stakes experience make him a serious threat, though his disappointing Lecomte Stakes effort and complete lack of effectiveness on dirt beyond the Springboard Mile victory raise concerns about surface versatility.

Westerly Invasion represents Nakamura Stables with Ivan Castillo (15/1 odds) riding this bay three-year-old colt by Con West. With two wins and two seconds from five career starts and earnings of $80.590, he enters off a fifth-place finish on January 31 in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park at 1 1/16 miles on a good track, carrying 121 pounds. Prior to that on December 20, he finished second in the $300.000 Remington Park Springboard Mile at one mile by 1/2 lengths. Earlier on November 16, he won a New York-bred optional claiming race at Woodbine at 1 1/16 miles by three lengths. His recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a bullet one-mile work in 1:37.1 at Sunland Park on February 10. While he’s shown quality form with his Woodbine victory and Springboard Mile runner-up finish, his disappointing Holy Bull Stakes effort raises questions about whether he can compete with proven stakes winners.

Apirana represents Mb Stables with Lanfranco Dettori (6/1 odds) guiding this chestnut three-year-old gelding by Bold Ruler. With two wins, one second, and three thirds from nine career starts and earnings of $257.520, he enters off a victory on January 17 in the $175.000 California-Bred CA Cup Derby at Santa Anita at 1 1/16 miles by 1/2 lengths, carrying 121 pounds. Prior to that on November 30, he finished third by a neck at Del Mar at 1 1/16 miles in optional claiming company. Earlier on October 31, he finished thirteenth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar at 1 1/16 miles, and on October 4, he finished second in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita. He was gelded in mid-September. His recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a bullet five-furlong work in :57.3 at Santa Anita on February 1. His proven effectiveness at 1 1/16 miles with multiple stakes placings and recent CA Cup Derby victory make him a legitimate threat, though his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile disaster raises questions about consistency.

Lesnar represents Royalty Stables with Florent Geroux (20/1 odds) aboard this bay three-year-old gelding by Valvano. With one win and one third from four career starts and earnings of $38.400, he enters off a victory on December 28 at Gulfstream Park at one mile by a head in maiden special weight company, carrying 120 pounds. He was gelded on November 28. Prior to that on November 28, he finished fourth at Aqueduct at one mile in a New York-bred maiden special weight. Earlier on October 19, he finished third at Aqueduct at 6 1/2 furlongs in a New York-bred maiden special weight. His recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a bullet one-mile work in 1:36.4 at Gulfstream Park on February 7. While he’s shown improvement with his recent maiden victory, his complete lack of stakes experience and limited racing background with just four career starts suggesting he faces a major challenge against proven graded stakes runners.

Embers Adrift represents D J C Racing Stables with Robby Alvarado (25/1 odds) riding this bay three-year-old gelding by Fire N Fury. With one win and one second from five career starts and earnings of $79.000, he enters off a second-place finish on January 3 in the $125.000 Tropical Park Derby at Tampa Bay Downs at 6 1/2 furlongs, carrying 122 pounds. He was gelded on November 17. Prior to that on October 30, he finished sixth at Churchill Downs at one mile on a muddy track in allowance company. Earlier on September 13, he finished eleventh in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine at one mile on turf. His recent workouts show solid preparation, including a six-furlong work in 1:10.4 at Aqueduct on January 28. While he’s shown some ability with his Tropical Park Derby placing, his modest speed figures and complete lack of route racing success suggest he faces a significant challenge in this competitive field.

Stray Cat represents Alydar Stables with Miguel Fuentes Jr. (8/1 odds) guiding this bay three-year-old colt by Keep Me Apprised. With two wins and one third from five career starts and earnings of $70.800, he enters off a victory on January 19 in the $80.000 New Mexico-bred Stk Hou Stakes at Sunland Park at six furlongs by 1/2 lengths, carrying 120 pounds. Prior to that on December 29, he won a maiden special weight at Turf Paradise at five furlongs on turf by a head. Earlier on November 24, he finished fourth in the $150.000 New Mexico-bred NM Champions Juvenile at Zia Park. His recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a one-mile work in 1:37.2 at Sunland Park on February 6. While he’s shown quality form with consecutive victories including his recent Sunland Park stakes win, his complete lack of route racing experience and the significant step up in distance from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles raise major questions about whether he can handle this assignment.

Preterequine represents Mb Stables with Ricardo Santana Jr. (15/1 odds) aboard this bay three-year-old gelding by Preternatural. With one win, one second, and one third from four career starts and earnings of $48.360, he enters off a victory on January 19 at Sunland Park at one mile by 1/2 lengths in maiden special weight company, carrying 120 pounds. He was auctioned for $26.260 in mid-December. Prior to that on November 12, he finished third at Churchill Downs at one mile in maiden special weight company. He was gelded in early November. His recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a bullet one-mile work in 1:37 at Santa Anita on February 3. While he’s shown improvement with his recent maiden victory, his complete lack of stakes experience and limited racing background with just four career starts suggesting he faces a major challenge against proven stakes winners.

Term Limits represents TwinTowersRacing with Manuel Franco (18/1 odds) riding this bay three-year-old colt by Neon Wolf. With one win, one second, and one third from five career starts and earnings of $84.190, he enters off a fourth-place finish on January 18 in the $100.000 All American Derby at Sunland Park at one mile, carrying 120 pounds. Prior to that on December 20, he finished second in the $100.000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds at 1 1/16 miles by 1/2 lengths. Earlier on November 14, he won a New York-bred maiden special weight at Aqueduct at one mile by one length. His recent workouts show solid preparation, including a six-furlong work in 1:10.4 at Aqueduct on December 30. While he’s shown quality form with his Gun Runner Stakes runner-up finish and maiden victory, his modest speed figures and disappointing All American Derby effort raise questions about whether he can compete with the top contenders.

Art Of Boom represents Nakamura Stables with Rafael Bejarano (3/1 odds) guiding this bay three-year-old colt by Jack O Lantern. With three wins and one second from seven career starts and earnings of $232.280, he brings exceptional credentials to this assignment. His most recent outing on January 31 at Oaklawn Park saw him finish fifth in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at 1 1/16 miles, carrying 121 pounds. Prior to that on January 3, he won the $250.000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park at 1 1/16 miles by 3/4 lengths. Earlier on November 28, he won an allowance race at Parx Racing at one mile by two lengths, and on October 17, he won a New York-bred maiden special weight at Aqueduct at 1 1/16 miles on turf by two lengths. His recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a one-mile work in 1:37.4 at Sunland Park on February 10. His proven effectiveness at 1 1/16 miles with his Smarty Jones Stakes victory and consistent form make him a serious threat, though his disappointing Southwest Stakes effort raises minor concerns about his current condition.

Glare represents Blazin D with Francisco Valdez (40/1 odds) completing the field for this bay three-year-old gelding by Winter Book. With one win and one second from three career starts and earnings of $21.310, he enters off a second-place finish on January 14 at Canterbury Park at 1 1/16 miles on a muddy track in allowance company, carrying 117 pounds. Prior to that on December 2, he won at Parx Racing at one mile on a muddy track in a New York-bred maiden special weight by four lengths. He was gelded in early October. His recent workouts show solid preparation, including a bullet six-furlong work in 1:10.4 at Houston on February 9. While he’s shown improvement with his maiden victory and allowance placing, his modest speed figures and complete lack of stakes experience suggest he faces a major challenge against proven graded stakes runners in this competitive field.

Pace Scenario and Prediction

The pace structure should develop with Art Of Boom, Daring Ned, and Stray Cat likely battling for the early lead, all having demonstrated consistent gate speed and the ability to set or press the pace. Apirana, Down To Earth, and Westerly Invasion have shown tactical speed to stalk just behind the leaders, while Country Kingz, Term Limits, Preterequine, Lesnar, Embers Adrift, and Glare will likely settle in mid-pack or come from off the pace before attempting their late rallies.

The projected winner is Art Of Boom, who brings the best combination of proven stakes-winning form, route racing experience, and the partnership with two-time SUN Derby winner Rafael Bejarano to this assignment. His victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park at this exact distance demonstrated his ability to handle quality competition at 1 1/16 miles, and while his Southwest Stakes effort was disappointing, that race came against tougher competition and he may benefit from the slight class relief in this Grade 3 event. The son of Jack O Lantern possesses tactical versatility and has proven effective both on the front end and when stalking the pace. With Bejarano able to position him perfectly in the early stages before unleashing his finishing kick, Art Of Boom should have every opportunity to capture his second stakes victory and earn crucial Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Down To Earth appears the most dangerous threat with his exceptional credentials including five career victories and nearly $1 million in earnings, though his disappointing Lecomte Stakes effort and questions about dirt form beyond his Springboard Mile victory raise concerns. Apirana could factor with his proven effectiveness at 1 1/16 miles and recent CA Cup Derby victory, while Daring Ned, Stray Cat, and Westerly Invasion round out the contenders with varying degrees of probability in this competitive Kentucky Derby prep race.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2026, THE TRIPLE CROWN, Ungraded