Beach Dandy’s Biggest Battle Begins
Beach Dandy took the KYD on Saturday with a very impressive performance and gave you the feeling that he won with ease. Ever since his BC Juvenile win last November he had been the number one contender in our SRF 3yo rankings to take the KYD, he did not disappoint.
Rarely do we see a horse here at HRP dominate races, you have to go back to 2010 and Five Fives to find the last three year-old that one can clearly say stood out among his peers. Five Fives came into the Derby that year having won six of his previous seven races. He would become the closest horse to win the Triple Crown here at HRP missing it by just a head in the PRK. After that he won the BEL, the Haskel, the Travers and the PA Derby and then finished out the year as the 3yo of the Year and Horse of the Year (though I thought Madhouse deserved HOY honors but that’s another story).
So now that we’ve seen Beach Dandy take the KYD what can we expect from him in the PRK? Can he handle the quick turnaround and some fresh new contenders? Can he handle the hardest thing he’ll face in his career; something that very few three year olds have been able to withstand? And that is the two week turnaround, following the most grueling race of their life. This has been the downfall of many derby winners many which have faltered and faltered badly.
If one looks at the last eight derby winners they have a combined record of 13 wins in 107 starts following the Derby. Four derby winners in history did not win a race after having taken the roses; they are Sleepless Nights, Half Spirit, Willow Grove and King Cobra. Those four have a combined record of 0 for 40 after winning the derby. So for sure the road to the KYD is a costly one and one that has taken its toll on many horses. The exception to this was Five Fives who won 5 of 9 races following the derby before retiring and as we said just missed the PRK and the Triple Crown by a head. He has been the best three year-old we have seen at HRP thus far.
So now the real battle begins for Beach Dandy, his biggest opponent he must face in the PRK is not the other horses but history and himself. Can he continue to dominate; will he be able to come off the derby win with another great performance? He has thus far shown to be an exception; he has shown heart and fight, he has done everything asked of him and in relative easy fashion.
His pace and speed figures display his athleticism. If you look at what he has done on the track you can clearly see why he has found the winners circle during this seven race win streak. Just looking at his prep races he had the fastest 3yo time at 1-1/16mi run in 1:41.21 in the Risen Star, the fastest 9f time 1:47.60 in the SUN Derby, he was the only horse to run under 1:48 at 9f . He earned a 96 SRF speed figure in the BC Juvenile at 1-1/16th, a 96 in the Risen Star 1-1/16th and a 98 in the 9f Sun Derby again the highest SRF figure at 9f.
His Pace figures: EP LP SRF Cmpd Rating
SUN Derby 81.3 93.7 93.5 (only horse above a 93)
Risen Star 84.9 93.1 92.4
RP Sprngbird 82.0 97.0 90.7
BC Juvenile 84.9 90.1 92.6
His pace figures are a key to his success. His Early Pace figures are in the low 80’s which means he comes from off the pace but not exceptionally far off, he can be tactical. His Late Pace figures displays his strength. Because of his positioning and strong late pace he has been able to overcome the competition and hold off deep closers. This in combination with high speed figures has proven to be a lethal combination that has given him success. The other figure displayed is the SRF Compounded Rating. This takes into account Speed, Pace, Class. This was developed by the SRF and is a powerful figure used for evaluation. The 93.5 by Beach Dandy was the highest rated figure at 9f in all the KYD prep races, no other horse even had a 92.0 at that distance.
So as we look at the figures involved we see why Beach Dandy is the KYD winner. All reflect what he has accomplished and why he accomplished it. So this takes us to the question can he continue his success? Now the derby was run in slow time. The track was way off on the day giving us a large variant. Sometimes it can be misleading. He earned a 94 SRF in the KYD not the fastest of figures for the race. The average SRF winning figure for the KYD is a 96, the 94 is the lowest figure since Commanding won the KYD in 2013 with a 94. The pace was also slow even when factoring in the variant. Is this a concern? Not really, again an off track and a distance of 10f, I expected a slow pace, even mentioned that in the forums with all the talk about rabbits. Again he won with relative ease in which I believe he was well within himself and remember he came from the 19th post position.
The PRK should be different barring a rainy day to muddy up things. But the cut back to shorter distance and I expect the pace figures to be higher in the PRK as well as the speed figure to increase. His late pace figures tells us that if he grabs the lead as they move into the stretch it will be hard for the closers to catch him.
So can he win the PRK? Can he overcome the grueling road to the KYD and history? Based on what he has done and how he has done it there is no reason that I see to say he can’t. His derby win was impressive and left us in awe. He has been good but we may have yet to see his best. Everyone should take this moment and enjoy it. It is rare in this game to have a horse, especially a 3yo like Beach Dandy.
Categories: FEATURED STORIES
