Berlin Looks to Rise to The Challenger

The Challenger Stakes – Grade III

TAM                     Race #7               1 1/16m      Dirt                      Graded Stake

Purse $125.000  For Four Year Olds And Upward.

1 Alive                 Arindel                              Curtis B                           122

This six-year-old has been around the block a few times but has proved himself a tough nut even though he hasn’t really broken through at the top level. He was strong on the Tokyo City Cup over this trip running from an inside draw so this ace gate will really suit his running style, and I expect him to be in it for a long way. He ran from wide in the Mineshaft which was a strong race and did his best to find the stalk but suffered late from the strong pace     and I think that run was better than it looked on paper.                                       

2 Sanity                             Maletto                             Worrie A S                      122

He was looking good through summer last year, but his form has fallen away since. That may have something to do with changing distances and surfaces a few times so if this turns out to be the magic trip then, on works at least, he will have some sort of chance.

3 The Mercy                     Waldo                               Gaffalione T                  122

He was a little weak on seasonal debut but that run will have sharpened him up and he should be better today. His recent work was strong which seems to confirm that, and he could just be an improver ready to break through.

4 Hurricane Ridge                       The Sidley Stud            Corrales G                     122      

There are a couple in this race that look a class above most of the field, and this is one of them. He ran well on seasonal debut in the San Pasqual at grade two running a close third after going on the speed so has clearly maintained his ability through turning five. His recent mile work was lightening, anything that breaks 1.36 in a work needs to be taken very seriously and he looks a huge chance to get back to winning ways.

5 Shake It Up And Go       John Henry                     Ortiz J L                            122

He was too bad to be true in the LA Stakes last time but got caught out stalking a fast pace and we all know how that turns out 99% of the time. Most of his form has been over shorter trips but a couple of decent mile works suggest this trip isn’t beyond him.

6 Heart Of Genghis         Night Rider Stables                   Da Silva F H 122

The next ‘class’ runner he has been there and done that winning the grade two Woodward last season. He got back in the Pegasus but was quite eye catching late and he can be excused that effort after running from a horror draw. He will be arriving late so if the pace is hot, he could be a great chance should the gaps appear at the right time.        

7 Caveat Emptor             High Voltage                  Bridgmohan S X                  122

Third in the grade one Goodwood last year he certainly has some good form but a look at his record tells you, his story. The seven-year-old has been second or third 15 times in his career but has only won 3 and I think that is probably the most telling stat that tells us his chances. Certainly, good enough to get in the top 4 but he will need everything to go his way to win.

8 Declassified Agent                 Bears Stable                  Castillo I                         122      

A twelve-race winner he comes here off the back of a win in an overnight at CT. He won the CC Jewel last year, which is always a competitive race, so he is clearly competitive at this level, but this is certainly a step up and he faces a tough field. He will likely go on speed so could catch a few out if the race engine works with him.

9 Classical                      D J C Racing Stables           Ortiz I Jr                           122

He has only won one in his last ten so finds a tough race to try and improve on that. Beaten in a couple of optional claimers in his last two he certainly needs to find the form he was in when a close fifth in the Gallant Bob to have any chance from a tough draw. His works say he is better than his recent form, but he is a tough pick on form.

10 Berlin               The Sidley Stud                           Gallardo A A                  122      

Escapes a penalty despite some top form over the years but he will have to improve on his poor effort in the Pegasus last time. Beaten a neck in the BC Classic, that form would win this race but open lengths but there is a question mark about his last run and that stems from his age. As an eight-year-old he may still have a season in him, but it can be a gamble until they prove they are still able to compete and that is where the question make comes up.

11 Gymnast                    Noblepark                       Morales P                       122

A decent three-year-old, he was just OK on seasonal debut in the San Pasqual so still has something to prove now he is a four-year-old. Certainly, good enough to run a race but this wide draw will make it tough, and he may get too far back. Should the pace be crazy then he may be doing something at the end, but this is a watch and see run for me today.      

12 Louisiana Asset        Big Jd Racing                 Elliott S                            122      

The seven-year-old finds himself in the car park for this race the same draw he faced in the Hooper last time and he never managed to threaten in that race. Like a few here he will need a fast pace to have a chance at the end but maybe the trainer could consider the gaming buttons and use the wide gate speed push and that could put the cat among the pigeons.

SUMMARY

This is an interesting race with some decent types. We have the improvers and the established form and as usual, as the works engine is so unreliable it is hard to know just which ones are improving enough to challenge the established form. I will however be going for Berlin, and you don’t get more established form than that simply because if this race was a few months ago, he would be odds on favourite. Hurricane Ridge may be the safer bet, and this could easily be a one two for the trainer in either order.    



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES