ONT Derby – Grade III

WO          Race #3                      1 1/8m          Dirt                      Graded Stake

Purse $175.00  For Three Year Olds.

1 — Izzys Brindle (Sidley Stud / Chernetz)

Form: Honest grinder. His best 2026 run was the Dandy (GII) where he earned a 94 but flattened late (“31/4 33/4 51 53”). He won an N2X at Lone Star with a strong finish.

Works: PRX drills are sharp — 1:36.1 H twice — showing consistency but not explosive improvement.

Trainer Pattern: Sidley horses are typically fit and forward, but this one tends to hang in the lane. Reliable, but not improving.

Summary: His form certainly doesn’t reflect some slick mile works but todays draw and some gathering experience may see him pull out his best effort today. It may be the class gene that’s missing, it may be the nine furlongs isn’t his best trip, the trainer will be hoping that he has been moving up his improvement curve and today he peaks.

2 — Tennessee Tuxedo (Winning Link / Fukumoto)

Form: Two wins this season, but his Super Derby run was a fade job (“98 98 97 54”). Strong early, weak late.

Works: KEE 6f in 1:11 is good, but earlier MNR works were only fair.

Trainer Pattern: Winning Link is excellent with improving geldings, but this one hasn’t stepped forward since the sale.

Summary: His first effort out of free grade was a bit of an acid test with a fifth in the Super Derby but he looked just a bit shocked at the quality of opposition that day after a life beating horses at the free track. Having said that he got well out of his ground early and came home well so with that experience under his belt may find some improvement today. The draw monster has been kind again which suggests to me he could be up to this. A dark horse if ever there was one.

3 — Prime Assettude (Winning Link / Flores)

Form: Lightly raced, progressive. Won two straight before a solid Super Derby effort (“87 88 86 64”).

Works: MNR works are steady, not flashy — 1:12–1:21 range.

Trainer Pattern: Winning Link develops horses patiently; this one is still learning but trending upward.

Summary: Another one taken from Spinetingling at the free tracks for a fairly strong price he  has raced once at pay level and was right alongside his stable companion in the Super Derby running a very similar race. The trainer will be looking for both to improve today but everyone is in the dark as yet as to how much they will.

4 — Jury Selection (Maletto / Civaci)

Form: Very consistent — three wins from five starts this season. Mostly statebred company, but figures (92–96) are competitive.

Works: PEN 5f in :58.1 is excellent — one of the best works in the field.

Trainer Pattern: Maletto horses often peak mid‑season; this one is in form but stepping up sharply in class.

Summary: Three wins in his last four and a state bred stakes win last time suggests this one is on the way up, whether he has come far enough remains to be seen. A midpack running style is probably suited to the draw but he may find it hard to make ground at the end.

5 — Spirit Of War (Nakamura / Jordan)

Form: Three wins this season, including two strong allowance scores at BTP. His 95 last out (“32 32 31 13/4”) shows tactical speed and finish.

Works: WO works are superb — :58.1, 1:10.2, 1:10.4 — all bullets.

Trainer Pattern: Nakamura is one of the best conditioners of improving geldings. This horse is peaking.

Summary: Three wins out of his last three sounds great but they were at the fair track so you have to be careful with the great record. With so very little between stakes races and fair track allowances I wouldn’t worry too much about the level of his wins and his works seem to reflect that. A big race trainer and an improving three year old, there are lots of plus’s here.

6 — Southwind (Acber / Wilson)

Form: Has run in KYD, BEL, BG, IND, Nashua — elite company — but beaten soundly each time. His best figure (97) came in the TAM Derby.

Works: CD and KD works are steady — 1:36.3 — but not showing new life.

Trainer Pattern: Acber places horses aggressively. This one has class but lacks finishing punch.

Summary: Struggled at elite level after some strong early form he took some time off and would’ve benefited from his last run. If he can find his early season form he is a big chance but that has to be taken on trust.

7 — Ripple Effect (Family Racing / Walcott)

Form: Excellent recent form. Strong 3rd in the Super Derby (“64 55 34 33”), won a tough Del Mar N2X, and ran well in the Marine at WO.

Works: BEL works are elite — 1:10, 1:36, :58.

Trainer Pattern: Family Racing horses often improve late season. This one is clearly trending upward.

Summary: A good overall form pattern, some good runs at this level and a consistent record he is certainly nailed on for top four but I wonder whether he has enough of the X Factor to win. He certainly could on his works and any improvement off already strong form would be enough.

8 — Neon Twist (Serenity / Singh)

Form: 0-for-7. Best run was a 95 at SAR sprinting. Not competitive at routes.

Works: BEL works are fast — :57.3, :57.4 — but he’s a sprinter.

Trainer Pattern: Serenity’s horses often jump forward after gelding, but this came too close to race day.

Summary: Bought for $105 pre race which is quite reserved for the big spending stable but so far both horse and trainer have struggled to find the magic formula to unlock his talent. He has a chance because this is HRP and the stars may align but apart from strong sprint works it is hard to make a case on form.

9 — People Batty (Night Rider / Buick)

Form: The class of the field.

• 4th in the Travers (G1)
• 2nd in WV Derby (G3)
• 2nd in Ohio Derby (G3) Figures consistently 95–100.

Works: WO 5f :57.4 — fastest work in the entire field.

Trainer Pattern: Night Rider excels with high‑class grinders. This horse always fires.

Summary: Well this was the talking horse pre KYD but he struggled through the TC and disappointed a little. Since then he has looked more his old self being put up on the speed in the WV Derby and The Travers and running much better races. He certainly has the ability but he has proved hard to win with so is no nailed on favorite as his form would suggest. Certainly a winning chance.

10 — Its A Wonderful Life (TwinTowers / Moran)

Form: Talented sprinter/miler. His 95s at 7f are strong, but his only 9f run was a fading 9th in the Ohio Derby.

Works: WO 6f 1:11 is solid.

Trainer Pattern: TwinTowers is excellent with sprinters stretching out, but this is a tough spot.

Summary: This race lacks pace and this is a wide drawn horse that has done well off the front so I think the trainer will see an opportunity here. He looks more of a sprinter so will need an uncontested lead at a steady pace but this race is mapping like he may get that.

11 — Strike (DJC / Moran P)

Form: Ultra-consistent.

• Won St Louis Derby (250k)
• 2nd in IND Derby (G3)
• 4th in LA Derby (G2) Figures 95–97 repeatedly.

Works: BEL 6f 1:10.2 and 1:02 — very strong.

Trainer Pattern: DJC is elite with 3yo routers. This horse is always in the frame.

Summary: Another TC failure, he was disappointing last time after redeeming himself but it may pay to ignore that effort in an easier race. I think if he can find the outside speed push and get on speed without pushing it then we may see the best of him.

Race Summary:

There is no speed in this race and the outside two have shown some early pace so they may lead and dominate if the race maps to running style. We may see some tinkering with the gaming buttons which will change the picture but I am banking on It’s a Wonderful Life leading and then Strike going past from the stalk and these two dominating off of slow fractions.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES