The Ballerina – Grade I [BC]
8/23/2016 3:00 SAR Race #8 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
1 Fast Witch, trained by Night Mare Racing
This filly is a lot better than her form suggests and with a weight allowance and a handy draw she may be tough to beat. The only thing against her that I can see is the fact that Mb Stables sold her at auction suggesting that she wasnt the best horse in the stable and with three Mb entries she may find it tough to beat her old stable companions. Having said that despite a defeat in an overnight over this course and distance she has faced some tough races and this may be her best trip.
2 Mischief Made, trained by Mb Stables
The slow year olds are starting to get their mojo back at the moment so being four may not be as big a disadvantage as it was a week or so ago. A winner of her last three she took the Vagrancy Handicap by a very easy three lengths before gamely winning an open allowance on this track last time. I am still not confident she can give weight to the three year olds but she is a good sort and should turn up to run.
3 Drill, trained by Mb Stables
I always look for three year old sin these races and this one fits the bill in many ways. Beaten narrowly in the grade one Ashland her down fall seems to be her need to come from off the pace and that may be tough over this trip. Having said that she sprinted home over this trip in a competitive race at DMR last time so if the traffic doesnt stop her she may come ver the top late to snatch a win.
4 Silk Houses, trained by Alydar Stables
Another from the struggling four year old generation she has been a tough and consistent filly this year winning the Distaff Handicap on her way to this race. She was a little disappointing in The Princess Rooney last time when dead heating for second and her works have been a little sluggish recently suggesting she may not be up for the win today.
5 Asclepios Trail. trained by BigKing
Was putting together a nice record when she met muddy ground in the Test. She had won two sprint allowances prior to a great third in the CCA Oaks so it was no surprise she went back in trip for the Test but she couldnt quicken up on the going and never really got into the race for the purse. Better ground will suit her in this and her most recent work puts her right in the mix.
6 Millyon Mama, trained by Pumpkin Racing
fulfilled her promise in The Bed O Roses Handicap last time winning over this trip by an easy three lengths in a smart time. Being a five year old will help her give weight to the three year olds but her works times are no better and whilst her form is pretty good it may not be good enough to win under the extra weight.
7 Distant Cousin, trained by D J C Racing Stables
It was significant that after winning three grade ones in a row against older horses she then got beaten when trying for a fourth in the Hirsch. The significant thing was the trip because although she is a very good router this certainly seems to be her best trip. This is a wonderful filly who has flown the flag for the four year olds this year but now she has to give weight to some half decent three year olds so this could be a real acid test for her chances in the BC.
8 Queen Of Broadway, trained by Aer Stables
This is a very interesting runner. A winner of four from five and recently bought from Riggins Racing she won over this trip in her first attempt at black type when taking the Eight Belles. If you look at her works and her winning time in The Eight Belles and then take away the five pound age allowance she has a serious chance of beating some of the best older horses on HRP in only her sixth race.
9 Live For Today, trained by Aer Stables
An on pace sort she has won all of her seven races over longer trips but her running style and work times suggest she may be able to keep up with these. Having said that she may be a little outclassed as this is a very hot field of sprinters.
10 Happy Clapper, trained by John Henry
A winner of five from seven she is one from one on the dirt and unbeaten in three at this trip. All positives especially when yu throw in the weight allowance. Bought from Australia Wide fairly cheaply she will have to be pretty good to take this from a wide draw but is entitled to run well and may squeak into a place.
11 Laffin Diplomat, trained by D J C Racing Stables
Ran a great race to be fourth in the Acorn but was pretty awful in The Mother Goose last time so this is definitely a wait and see race as far as betting on her goes. She proved in the Forward Gal and the Eight Belles that she can go well at this trip and in good company but she meets some tough sprinters today and may end up being the pacemaker for her stable mate.
SUMMARY
Distant Cousin should win this but I fear the weight allowance will help a sub standard three year old. I hope I am wrong but recent history is saying otherwise. Having said that the four year olds have had a success or two recently and Distant Cousin is about the best dirt sprinter around at the moment so if anything can beat the three year olds its her. So the question is which three year old is the biggest danger and i really dont know the answer to that.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
