1 Alayne, trained by Night Mare racing

She looked smart as a two year old slaughtering her maiden field before running a decent race in a pretty hot Allowance at CD. She was put away for the Winter and put in a decent seasonal debut at PRX running second over this trip. Big things were then expected in her next race but she failed in a strange sort of run where she finished last of nine after showing early pace. Like so many races that race was made to look even stranger when she flew home to be a close second in the grade three Edgewood last time. It may just come down to inconsistency and if that is the case you have to take her best run by chance today but she does have ability and I expect her to run well.

2 Summer Sun, trained by Chili King Stables

A decent and honest sort she rarely runs a bad race but may lack an edge against this class. She has not been in a graded race yet with her six black type appearances coming in ungraded stakes with probably her best effort in those coming in a closing second in the China Doll Stakes. This isn’t a bad sort but I think she lacks the sort of turn of foot that will be required at this level and I cannot see well than second place for her.

3 King Tyrion, trained by GlueFactory

Didn’t win as a two year old but made up for it as a three year old winning her first two races of the season. Those wins prompted her trainer to try the GP Oaks and she ran a cracker to be a closing fifth on the dirt. After that decent start she was kept to the dirt but failed in a hot all aged open allowance next time and now reverts back to a surface that sees her as unbeaten. Her win in an allowance at GP over this surface and trip give her a lively chance and she may me a choice in a tough race to read.

4 Sodas Boom, trained by Wolfs Den

The most experienced in the field and also the one with the best efforts in top grade she may have found a good opportunity here to add a third career win. On balance her turf efforts have been better than her dirt efforts so this could turn out to be her preferred surface and her close fourth in the CA Cup Oaks may just be the best form in the race. The fear of course is that she has been a busy girl since May last year and her run last time did lack a bit of enthusiasm so if you can forgive a tough campaign she may turn out to be the top choice.

5 Cat 7 Storm, trained by Downwind Stables

As usual we have the dark horse that may just put in the upset this type of race can often turn up. A winner of her maiden last time over five and a half furlongs she has never raced beyond a sprint trip and never taken on this type of class so it is tough to make a case for her on any known form. However, and this is a sentence that I have written many times, you have to forget all form, you have to forget what grade this race is and look at her last work to realise that she may just be yet another shock winner of a stakes race. I just cannot pick her on that one work but the way she has seen out her sprint races suggest that this trip may suit and that works does too so don’t be too shocked if she gets home today.

6 Geek Watch, trained by Nakamura Stables

Undoubtedly the class of the race but 128Lbs is the price you pay for achievement in ungraded stakes and it may be that that beats her today rather than the opposition. A winner of the grade three Durante Stakes as a two year old she has done just as well as a three year old on both surfaces. Her debut fourth in the grade one Las Virgenes Stakes was a great run where she looked the winner for a long way but after that one shot at getting in the KY Oaks she came back to turf for her next effort. She ran a great race in The Herecomesthebride Stakes to be a very close fourth and to be honest those runs put her well ahead of her rivals. The anomalies of HRP struck in her last race when she got beaten in a little overnight race at PIM but even with that failure she still has the form to beat them all today. The ONLY question for her is can she carry the weight.

SUMMARY

Geek watch would be an obvious choice without 128Lbs but weight at HRP is like a ball and chain and she would have to be far superior to win today. If The weight stops her then I am going for a surprise win with Cat 7 Storm.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded