Chances Are Catches Youcantcatchme to Win The Sweetest Chant

By Nynl Stables on January 31, 2021

The Sweetest Chant (Grade 3)- $100.000 Purse
GP- For Fillies Three Years Old
One Mile on the Inner Turf
January 30, 2021

Hopes were high for Chances Are for her trainer, Mb Stables, as she was placed in an ungraded stake before ever breaking her maiden. That is not something uncommon for a two year old, of course, but is not something seen as much from this trainer. She didn’t win that stake, but has gone on a tear afterwards. Chances Are routed a field by eight lengths to break her maiden, setting off a run of three wins in four races thanks to this win the The Sweetest Chant. It becomes her first graded win, and chances are that we will see this filly pick up more over her career. The win is the second in the race for Mb Stables, as he last won in 2017 with General Belle. C J Lanerie was in the saddle and won for the first time. Congratulations to them! The race was run in a time of 1:33.62, a middle of the road winning time overall for the race. Let’s take a look!

(¼ Mile- :23.49)- Rose Petals breaks sharply out of the gate, and after a battle with Daratoga G, who also started quickly, she would end up with a length advantage after a quarter mile. Our eventual winner, Chances Are, from Mb Stables, was also a quick starter and eventually settled into a stalking position, even for the third position with Youcantcatchme, from Fractious, who had good position along the rail. It was another length to the post time favorite, Casting Couch Cutie, from Arindel. To her outside were D J C Racing Stables’ Recession, and our pick to win, Nakamura Stables-trained Break From Holly. Further back, Hardly Real (RNP Stables) and Painville (Mb Stables) ran together, and trailing were Molly Cat (First Street Stables), Down In The Gulley (Luz International), and Concoction (John Henry).

(½ Mile- :46.67)- Rounding the opening turn and entering the backstretch, Rose Petals is not letting up and opens up a lead of two and a half lengths. Daratoga G is still in the second position, but is no longer interested in applying pressure to Rose Petals. This allows Youcantcatchme to pull up alongside her for the backstretch. Casting Couch Cutie runs fourth right now, in a good spot for the moment right behind that battle for second. Recession continues to race with her, and is fifth. As for Chances Are, she actually lost a little bit of ground here as C J Lanerie likely did not like how the early pace was setting up for her and held her back just a little while running in the outside lane. Hardly Real was starting to show a little interest in moving forward as the others continued to save ground.

(Top Of Stretch, 1.5F To Go)- Completing the backstretch run, and entering the turn, Rose Petals continued to lead the way, but she began to get a little leg weary midway through the turn. Youcantcatchme took advantage of this, and took over the lead just entering the top of the stretch and now her name was a challenge to the rest of the field. Could they catch her, or not? Daratoga G was still running at the front, and was third, about to get by Rose Petals. Looking great in the turn was Chances Are, gaining ground every step of the way, and on exit of the turn she was back up into fourth position and within a length while running four wide. Behind them, things were closing up very quickly as many others were looking to make their move. The lead over this group was Hardly Real, and Painville was making a nice run along the outside, looking about as smooth as Chances Are, just needing to gain a lot more ground. Break From Holly was moving up, passing Recession and looking to make a run of her own. Casting Couch Cutie was still among this group, but was not looking like one of the bigger threats for the win at this point.

(Finish- 1:33.62)- In the stretch, chances were that Chances Are would catch Youcantcatchme, and she did this a lot easier than it seemed like she would. Zooming by on the outside, she pulled a length in front of Youcantcatchme, and there was no one left to catch her as she picks up a sharp looking win. No one else caught Youcantcatchme, and she gets the second spot over Break From Holly, who was running very well in the stretch, but ran out of time. In was very close, for the fourth place check, and in a three way photo, Painville gets up over Daratoga G and Hardly Real. Concoction showed interest very late and made an appearance in this photo, as well. Rounding out the order, its Molly Cat, Casting Couch Cutie, Rose Petals, Recession, and Down In The Gulley.

About The Winner- Chances Are, trained by Mb Stables and ridden to victory by C J Lanerie, is a three year old filly by Coin Flip, and is out of Break Everything. She was bred as a second quarter filly by Mb Stables in New York, and they have been together throughout. Congratulations to the connections! The win is her third in eight starts, her second stake win, and first graded win. Her career earnings are now $184.600.

Horse Name

Owner Name

Jockey

Odds

Fin

Time

SRF

Chances Are

Mb Stables

Lanerie C J

5.90

1¹