The $100.000 Mardi Gras Stakes headlines the turf action at Fair Grounds on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, presenting a 5 1/2-furlong sprint on the grass for fillies and mares four years old and upward. This historic stakes event has crowned numerous talented turf sprinters since its inception in 2005, including recent winners Stellar Strength (2025), A Lot To Say (2024), and Chateau Margaux (2023). Florent Geroux has won this race three times (2017, 2023, 2025) and rides Stayawayfrommyman, seeking to add a fourth Mardi Gras Stakes trophy. The compact field of five experienced turf specialists promises an exciting sprint battle over the challenging Fair Grounds turf course, with each runner bringing proven stakes credentials and tactical speed to this prestigious event.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
Lwaxana represents Alydar Stables with Ivan Castillo (7/2 odds) in the irons. This bay six-year-old mare by Sacred Order has won six of 32 career starts while earning $617.920, posting her best speed figure of 97. Her most recent outing on January 10 at Fair Grounds saw her win the $100.000 Menmemoriam Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs on soft turf by 3/4 lengths, carrying 123 pounds, though she posted a disappointing 77 speed figure. Prior to that on November 29, she finished eighth in the $100.000 Zareta Stakes at Fair Grounds at 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. Earlier on September 28, she finished third by a neck at Aqueduct at six furlongs on turf in allowance company. Her recent workouts show solid preparation, including a five-furlong turf work in :58 at Fair Grounds on February 9. While she’s shown quality form with her recent Menmemoriam Stakes victory at this exact distance and course, her disappointing speed figure in that effort and inconsistent recent form raise questions about whether she can compete with proven stakes winners in better condition.
Ginger Tulip represents The Sidley Stud with Paco Lopez (6/1 odds) guiding this bay four-year-old filly by Ginger Haggis. With two wins, two seconds, and one third from eleven career starts and earnings of $149.800, she enters off a fourth-place finish on October 11 in the Grade 3 Ontario Fashion Stakes at Woodbine at six furlongs on dirt, carrying 120 pounds. Prior to that on September 9, she won the $100.000 New York-bred Ronny Bay Stakes at Finger Lakes at 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt by a head. Earlier on August 29, she finished fourth at Belterra Park at 1 1/16 miles on turf in the $75.000 Tomboy Stakes. Her recent workouts show solid preparation, including a six-furlong turf work in 1:10.1 at Parx Racing on February 3. While she’s shown quality form with her Ronny Bay Stakes victory, most of her success has come on dirt rather than turf, and she hasn’t raced since mid-October, which raises questions about fitness and surface versatility for this turf assignment.
China Grove represents Xcel Racing with Jose Ortiz (2/1 odds) aboard this black five-year-old mare by Z Grayte One. With six wins and eight seconds from 19 career starts and earnings of $161.730, she brings exceptional credentials to this assignment. Her most recent outing on January 7 at Gulfstream Park saw her win at five furlongs on turf by a neck in allowance company, carrying 122 pounds and posting an impressive 97 speed figure. Prior to that on November 25, she won at Turf Paradise at five furlongs on turf by one length in allowance company. Earlier on October 14, she finished second at Finger Lakes at five furlongs on turf in allowance company. Her recent workouts show minimal preparation, with her last work on December 10 at Turf Paradise. Her proven effectiveness at five furlongs on turf with consecutive victories and impressive speed figures make her a serious threat, and her perfect 6-for-6 record in turf sprints at five furlongs demonstrates remarkable consistency and class at this specialty distance.
Tell Milady represents Nakamura Stables with Brandon Curtis (8/1 odds) riding this bay seven-year-old mare by Telling Ya. With twelve wins, seven seconds, and ten thirds from 40 career starts and earnings of $494.510, she brings extensive experience to this assignment. Her most recent outing on December 31 at Parx Racing saw her finish fifth in the $75.000 Ms Calumet Handicap at seven furlongs on dirt, carrying 116 pounds. Prior to that on November 20, she finished fifth at Belterra Park at one mile in allowance company. Earlier on October 25, she finished sixth at Santa Anita at 1 1/16 miles in allowance company. Her recent workouts show solid turf preparation, including a six-furlong turf work in 1:10.3 at Tampa Bay Downs on February 4. While she’s shown quality form throughout her career with twelve victories, she has minimal turf experience with just three turf starts in 40 career races, and her recent dirt form has been disappointing, which raises significant questions about whether she can compete on turf against proven turf specialists.
Stayawayfrommyman represents Bears Stable with Florent Geroux (5/2 odds) completing the field for this bay four-year-old filly by Charleys Glance. With five wins, two seconds, and one third from nine career starts and earnings of $49.920, she enters off a victory on December 31 at Belterra Park at five furlongs on turf by 1/2 lengths in allowance company, carrying 115 pounds and posting an impressive 98 speed figure. Prior to that on November 15, she finished second by a nose at Belterra Park at five furlongs on turf in allowance company. Earlier on September 27, she finished third in the $75.000 New Mexico-bred Salazar Stakes at Albuquerque at 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Her recent workouts show solid preparation, including a five-furlong turf work in :58.3 at Fair Grounds on February 11. Her proven effectiveness at five furlongs on turf with consecutive strong efforts and impressive 98 speed figure make her a legitimate threat, and the partnership with three-time Mardi Gras Stakes winner Geroux adds significant appeal, though her limited stakes experience raises minor questions about competing at this level.
Pace Scenario and Prediction
The pace structure should develop with China Grove, Lwaxana, and Stayawayfrommyman likely battling for the early lead, all having demonstrated consistent gate speed and the ability to set or press the pace in turf sprints. Ginger Tulip and Tell Milady may settle slightly off the pace before launching their bids, though the compact five-horse field and short 5 1/2-furlong distance suggest an honest early pace throughout.
The projected winner is China Grove, who brings the best combination of proven turf sprint excellence, impressive recent form, and tactical brilliance to this assignment. Her perfect 6-for-6 record in five-furlong turf sprints demonstrates remarkable consistency and superiority at this specialty distance, and her recent victories at Gulfstream Park and Turf Paradise show she’s in peak form. The daughter of Z Grayte One posted an impressive 97 speed figure in her most recent effort, matching the top figure in this field, and her proven ability to win both when on the lead and when stalking the pace gives Jose Ortiz multiple tactical options. While she hasn’t competed at the stakes level, her dominant allowance victories against quality competition suggest she’s ready for the step up in class. Stayawayfrommyman appears the most dangerous threat with her impressive 98 speed figure and recent turf sprint victories, plus the significant advantage of three-time winner Geroux in the saddle, though her limited stakes experience raises minor concerns. Lwaxana could factor with her recent course-and-distance victory in the Menmoriam Stakes, while Ginger Tulip and Tell Milady round out the contenders with varying degrees of probability in this competitive turf sprint stakes event.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded