August 18, 2016

The Grade I Pacific Classic needs no introduction; it sits as a pinnacle for the Handicap division and along with the Santa Anita Handicap and the Breeders Cup Classic, comprise a trio of races that no horse in history has been able to complete. The list of winners is incredible with Best Pal, Bertrando, Candy Ride, Lava Man, Acclamation, Shared Belief and Beholder, while HRP has seen the likes of Little Slick, Icicle, Barbarino, Obvious Intention, Madhouse and Nile Warrior prove best, and each of them earned more than $5000.000 in their careers. On Saturday, another entrant with those kind of credentials will try to add to his already impressive bankroll but he will have to defeat the top two finishers from this race last year, the SA Handicap winner and a multiple Grade I winner on turf and dirt who are all looking to earn their guaranteed spot in the BC Classic at SA later in the year.

1-Port On The Horizon (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Despite only six career wins and only a single score all season long, Port On The Horizon is the type of horse who seems to clunk up for big pieces in these types of races and after pressing the pace in the Grade II Suburban with little success, he will try to sit farther off what should be a good pace up front. On his best day, the ten-furlongs should be no problem and he gets a jockey who rode him successfully at GP and OP so it could be interesting to see how he fares with bigger goals down the line well within his grasp.

Analysis-Always seems to be somewhere close

Fair Odds-12/1

2-Spanish Town Posse (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Spanish Town Posse has been absolutely dominant at the 1 ½ mile distances and after winning the Brooklyn and finishing a head back in the Cougar Handicap carrying top weight, he now gets to cutback and see what he is really made of in the Pacific Classic. There is no harm taking a shot in this spot and he seems to be in career form but on paper, he does not look to be as fast as others in the field and if the pace collapses, he will be in the best position to pick up the pieces.

Analysis-Marathon runner looks to cut back and hold his own

Fair Odds-20/1

3-Connectivity (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Bigking)

Connectivity has been hot and cold this season with a win in the Steady Growth but only on-the-board finishes in the Queens Plate and Prince Of Wales and now, he is asked to step against older runners in an open Grade I and that can be a daunting task. He was fourth in the BG Stakes among rivals who have become quite good including Edwin Drood and Carneyman but his speed ratings have declined and unless he comes up with a big effort, he might not have enough speed to contest for a top placing.

Analysis-Faces a big test for class here

Fair Odds-40/1

4-Hyper Silver (Seven-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Both entrants from Night Rider Stables draw well at DMR but Hyper Silver has not one since te JC Gold Cup last year and despite a second in the San Diego, does not look to be the same horse who finished second in this event last year as one of the better entrants. No horse over the age of five has ever won and he is being asked to do a lot after an already long season; coupled with his form and odds, he has to be considered a longshot against others who have beaten him already this campaign.

Analysis-An uphill battle for him based on current form

Fair Odds-25/1

5-Good Friends-SCRATCHED

6-Niagra (Five-year-old bay horse / Owner-D J C Racing Stable)

Three past Horse Of The Year winners have won the Pacific Classic and Niagra is one of them, having taken the award at three in 2014 before bypassing this race last year in favour of the Grade I Whitney, where he finished second. It is hard to imagine that, for all his efforts and $7000.000 in earnings, he still only has a single Grade I win to his credit but that did come in the BC Classic and if he repeats that effort, it might be enough for him to hit the top three once again.

Analysis-How can you not like him for a top spot?

Fair Odds-5/1

7-Phooeys Warrior (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

Phooeys Warrior is a maiden winner who was only fourth in the Grade II Dandy while making his initial stakes attempt and while speed ratings have been improving, they are not enough to hit the top half of this star-studded field. A one-mile workout over the course was sharp and he goes out for an owner who pulled off an upset with a similar type horse in 2013 but it is a lot to ask of a horse to step up like this and unless he really steps up, it will be tough for him to be a factor.

Analysis-Asked to make a huge jump off a single stakes try

Fair Odds-40/1

8-Outward Bound (Six-year-old chestnut horse / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Outward Bound has not won a race since his 8-1 score in the 2015 Pacific Classic but he seems to coming into better form with a fourth in the Californian and a third in the Gold Cup, although both of those came a huge odds. Another who does not seem to the same horse he was a year ago, that last event was a big improvement and workouts seem to be going well for him; that might signal a return to the top in a field that looks like it could be loaded to the outside with plenty of room to race inside.

Analysis-Efforts at SA were good enough to make him a contender

Fair Odds-10/1

9-High Pride (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

High Pride took a shot at the TC trail but was not quite good enough then; however, in his last three starts, the three-year-old son of Chai Latte has proven his might at ten-furlongs and off a dominant score in the Grade III Dominion Day at WO, looks to be the complete sleeper in this talented bunch. The Windy City pulled off the Dominion Day-Pacific Classic double for this same stable back in 2012 so there is precedents there and with speed ratings on the rise and a huge stable in his corner, there are worse choices in this full field.

Analysis-Looks to pull off a huge upset like his former stablemate did

Fair Odds-15/1

10-Chrystal Pip (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Since being purchased for $600.000 by owner Mb Stables, Chrystal Pip has further his reputation with Grade I wins on turf in the Man o War and dirt in the Gold Cup and while that last race was won with a desperate final lunge, there seems to be more in the tank for this colt if the pace up front is quick. He seems to have found the right running style as a four-year-old and really come into his own; a win here would make it three straight Grade I triumphs and cement his status as the top contender for the Classic, with a possible start in the Turf as backup.

Analysis-The top choice off two big Grade I wins

Fair Odds-7/2

11-Greek Poet (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)

Greek Poet was an excellent stakes winner last year with the Queens Plate-Prince Of Wales double at WO but has really come into his own with a massive upset in the SA Handicap and a whisker loss in the Gold Cup over that same course and now, he will try to continue his march to the BC Classic as one of the likely favourites here. He sat a little too far off the pace last time out but should be in a much better position here with the outside stall and maintains the same jockey as last time, which is always good in these important races.

Analysis-Huge efforts at this distance make him a logical choice

Fair Odds-4/1

12-Captain General (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Kopites)

Captain General finished off his three-year-old campaign with a trio of huge wins including the Grade I Clark Handicap but this year has not gone nearly as well and after fading to last of four in a $50.000 claimer, he will be hard pressed to hit the board in his return to top-class competition here. He looks no where near the same horse he was to end off 2015 and even his workouts have not raised much attention, leading this handicapper to believe that he will be outrun here until he gets some of his confidence back.

Analysis-Has the talent but has lost his way thus far

Fair Odds-40/1

13-Spanish Showboat (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Spanish Showboat has been one of the more consistent horses in the Pacific Classic field over the past year with two Grade II wins and multiple top placings and while the Gold Cup was not his best effort, it does allow him room to improve with more consistency on the dirt. As a six-year-old, he might be getting a little over the top in terms of experience at this route distances but he always seems to be in the thick of things at the wire, with the outside draw the only downside unless he can save some ground in the first quarter-mile.

Analysis-Consistency could be key against this field

Fair Odds-8/1

14-Chrystal Wizard (Seven-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Joshua Stables)

Despite being a solid miler for much of his career, Chrystal Wizard put together the best race of his career last time in the Suburban and walked away with a mammoth three-length win and a career-best speed rating and off that effort, it is no wonder he ships across for a shot at the big time here. He found a nice dimension last time and came from off the pace to win and off the older runners, he looks to be the one with the most potential to really step forward so look for another top class effort as he tries to build on a new career going much longer.

Analysis-Big improvement last time and is asked to make another leap

Fair Odds-6/1

Overall

Although there are a lot of different ways to go in the Grade I Pacific Classic, consistency is the name of the game when it comes to older males and Chrystal Pip comes in off two huge Grade I victories and that has to make him the likely favourite. He came charging down the lane in the Gold Cup at SA to just beat Greek Poet, so that fellow four-year-old has to be considered the likely second choice who could easily win with a bob of the head, while Niagra is the veteran in the field with clearly the most back class and has the a top three pick for many, especially those who are looking for him to notch a second Grade I win.

Prediction

Win-Chrystal Pip (7/2)

Place-Greek Poet (4/1)

Show-Niagra (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES