14   SA    BC Distaff   (GI)

      $2,000.000    1 1/8m  Dirt       F&M  3yo&Up      3yo 122lbs, Older 124lbs

My oh my what a great group of horses we have for this one… you can tell it’s Championship Season!  The BC Distaff (GI) is always a race of intrigue and you certainly won’t be disappointed with this years rendition.  When I say you can make a case for any of these, it could not be more true and it plays out as so if you look at our inside team of handicappers…  nobody agrees on much of anything.

I’m going straight to the rail for my top choice and has selected Waldo’s Blue Caviar as the one to beat.  Although she hasn’t had her picture taken since June, I just think she’s a horse that is sitting on a big win and her ability to use tactical speed should be accentuated by her inside post.  Trip and pace will spell the winner, from my point of view, and I think she fits both, to a tee.

My second choice follows the pattern, having not won a race since June – I’ll take High On Haggis off of that fast closing runner-up race in the Cotillion last out.  She’s been away since that Sep effort, but does have a trio of works over the track and this just seems like a spot where she can be a huge factor.  This outfit is looking for their first BC win, and maybe today is the day.

It’s BC Day and it’s always hard to pick a race and not look to Mb Stables for a contender, so let’s put Elegant in the middle of this one.  I know she’s had a tough time of things in her last two outings, but 3yo hits me as a horse that can snap back from those poor showings and get a piece of this one. 

The Green Card is looking for Charo to return to her summer form along with Viking Vania and Ghost In The Shell, all horses that certainly have class and speed.  Scotty has other plans, taking Mb Stables recent acquisition Cannolo on top, last out winner Tenrikyo and Ineffable. We are usually a bit closer in our selections, so I think it explains just how wide open this race is.  Congratulations and Best of Luck to all involved.

Here’s The Field –

Very consistent filly hitting the board in five of her seven seasonal starts, but less wins this year than her freshman season.  Still, she pocketed a big payday when taking the WO Oaks Stakes and beat graded foes in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (GIII), although that was limited to 3yos.  She just missed facing older horses last out in the Spinster (GI) and had the lead late that day, only to settle for the runner-up spot, a length back.  I like that her style has been flexible, wire-to-wire win, tracking the pace or closing.  That versatility could be vital today.  She keeps her constant pilot, which is also a good thing.

Back to back graded wins taking the Santa Margarita (GII) back in April, over this course, then backing that up with a win in the Phipps (GI), and everything seemed to be great… but, then…  a tiring fifth in the Phipps (GI) and eighth in the Spinster (GI), so I’m a bit perplexed by her current form.  Her works seem legit, and her only local start was a graded win.  If she can find that magic, she could factor, but…

Changed hands for a pretty penny one start back and that start was less than desirable.  Seventh in the Cotillion (GI) where she just never got in gear.  She has two wins this season, including a win in the Gazelle (GII) back in April, but she’s going to have to find some of the old magic to compete with this group. 

Has three very nice wins this season including the Ashland (GI), the KY Oaks (GI) and a victory in her most recent start taking the Beldame (GII) at BEL, and two of those races were at today’s distance.  She threw a trio of clunkers after that Oaks win, but that last out effort was certainly a head-turner.  Can she use her speed to control this race the same way?  We find out soon enough.

We know that the big barn isn’t afraid to put his money where his horses are, and Mb Stables forked out $700.000 to acquire this one prior to the big day.  She’s been on the board in seven of her nine starts and was fourth in the other two while taking graded wins in the Davona Dale (GII) and the Acorn (GI), so class, consistency and ability are not a question.  She’s had two local works and seems ready to fire a big shot.

You gotta love when a horse comes back to be tough after throwing a bad race and that exactly what this filly did.  A dismal eleventh in the Alabama (GI) which was over a wet surface, and gives a perfect aliby, then a near miss while closing from far back to be second a neck off in the Cotillion (GI) in her most recent.  She took the Mother Goose (GII), so she certainly knows what it takes.  I think she will run a big one today.

Another that bounced back well after a bad race.  She was Eleventh in the Acorn (GI) bu came back with two GI wins in the Hirsch Stakes (GI) and Personal Ensign (GI).  She has won half of her eight seasonal starts, and does have two wins over the track, so the surface should fit her fine, as well.  She was fourth last out as the beaten post time favorite, but I do look for her to bounce back again and be a major factor today.

She’s been on the board in seven of eight ’19 starts including five wins and a pair of placings… the bad news may be that last out sixth in the Spinster (GI) but as I watch that race she just seemed to get in trouble at every chance.  Still, she was only three lengths back and when you consider that she won the Fleur De Lis Hcp (GII) and DEL Hcp (GII), and was a fast closing second in the Personal Ensign (GI), you can certainly understand that she has to be looked at.  She also gets Esquivel back in the irons, and her best efforts have come with him ‘up’.

Another that gives you a bad feeling looking at the last pair of races, but then you see that she won the Trillium Stakes (GIII) and the CCA Oaks (GI) in back-to-back races… so you just have to think she has every chance in the world to find her old form.  She was second over this surface in both the Santa Ysabel (GIII) and the SA Oaks (GI).  Add in her second in last years BC Juv F (GI), she’s been second here, a lot.

Two big wins at OP back in the spring taking both the Azeri (GII) and the Apple Blossom Hcp (GI).  Since then, she’s had some tough finishes but bounced back last out to be second in the Zenyatta (GII) over this track.  It’s not just that she ran a big race last out, it’s how she did it – coming from quite a way back and looking like a horse that is on top of her game again.  Both of her races with Centeno have been improvements and he’s back to pilot this journey.

She’s won half of her eight seasonal starts including back-to-back wins coming in today as she won both the DEL Oaks (GIII) and the Cotillion (GI), both coming from off-the-pace.  She threw a couple of duds in the mid-summer but seems to have recovered nicely and heads into today with a full head of steam.  This is her first time facing older foes, but maybe if nobody tells her…

Lines up next to her stable mate and she’s another that comes into this race in fine form.  After a couple of bad races she got back on track taking the Malvern Rose vs. PA-breds and then she upset the apple cart winning the Spinster (GI) at KEE in her most recent.  Both of those races featured an off-the-pace form which mimics her next door sister in crime.  I’m guessing the barn is hoping that at least one of them finds room to kick when the time is right.

Speed is her game and she knows how to use it.  Winning half of her six seasonal starts including a wire-to-wire score over this track last out, taking the Zenyatta (GII) by a half length.  She used the same roadmap last year, when she won the Zenyatta, but turned up sour in this race, running tenth.  Can she turn the tables and get the job done today?  Bejarano is back in the saddle and will be looking to help her change the outcome.

Changed hands and this great conditioner got her right back to the winner’s circle, taking the Alabama (GI), giving her a third win for the season.  She won the Suncoast at TAM and IND Oaks (GIII) for the previous owner, and with $1,262.200 in earnings as a 3yo, well, what else do you need to know?  They do change jocks for this one, but Beschizza is a hot commodity and you have to like any time he’s on board.  The post position… don’t get me started.

Would need some luck to draw into the field but she’s been very consistent including a win in the Black Eyed Susan (GII), so if she does make it to the gate, give her a look.

She was declared prior to the draw and I’d look for this one in a graded stakes soon… she has some real talent.

Only five starts for this 4yo but she won the La Troienne (GI) in her third start and seems to have ability on the off track surface.

COZMAN Picks  1  /  6  /  9          Willie’s Green Card    8 / 13 / 7        Scotty     5 / 4 / 10

Categories: Grade I