11/02 BC Juvenile – Grade I [KYD]
CD Race #10 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $2,000.000 For Colts And Geldings Two Years Old.
First raced in 2003 this race has produced the likes of Timepiece, Copper Bottom and Ginger Haggis to name but a few and is widely regarded as the start of the road to next years TC. There will be many of todays runners that go on to compete in the KYD so its always worth taking note of those that run well but don’t necasairly win. Surprisingly we dont see many of the big hitters of the game on the previous winners list, No Mb, no T7, Ken Allen or Blushing Meadows. No John Henry, Estero Farms or DJC Racing Stables, many of what are considered the games best breeders havent managed to win this race yet, which is an interesting fact in its own right. Only Triple K stables has won this race more than once.
The most successful jockey has been K J Desmoreaux with three wins.
This will be the fourth time the race has been run at CD and both the most recent winners have come from right on the speed, Timepiece came from a little further back but even he wasn’t a long way from the lead in transit. So will a rabbit stretch the field out or will the track play to its history and suit a horse that can travel up on the pace?
So its onto the runners to try and sort out what is probably the most even field i have ever written about in the BC, There is no more than a length between these runners on their form or their work times which will make it very hard to try and find a winner.
1 Scarlet Ninja Joshua Stables Espinoza V
31042
Trained by Joshua Stables who has 0 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 18.9
Sire: Fioraia
Poor on the track with just one free track maiden win he has had only minimal success in the shed with this one being his most significant offspring
Dam: Taken Down
The winner of the My Dear as a two year old and placed at graded level she retired as a three year old and has bred four foals. This is the only significant one.
Form:
A good maiden winner at WO she was very disappointing in the Sanford and then again in the ungraded Saplin Stakes but then his fortunes changed when he was bought for $250.000 by Joshua Stables and promptly gelded. In his first and only start for the new trainer he was drawn wide in the Breeders Futurity but despite getting well behind he flew home to be beaten just a quarter length by Get Jiggy With It. That much improved performance may have been down to the rain affected track or it may have been that the new owner found the magic formula and we will have to wait to see which one it was.
Track works:
His recent works include a very fast 1.10 and 3 for the six furlongs and a 1.37 flat for the mile, good enough to be right in the mix.
SUMMARY
The stable is looking for their first BC winner and this one has a great chance on that last race effort. A nicely conformed type i am a bit wary of improved form on a wet track so wont be convinced unless it rains or he can do what he did again on a dry track.
2 Beach Dandy Joshua Stables Castellano J J
411
Trained by Joshua Stables who has 0 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 18.9
Sire: Beachcomber
Very poor on the track with a win at the free track and two terrible runs under pay conditions. In his first season as a sire he has nothing much to show apart from this offspring with only two other wins from 47 other starts.
Dam: Living Dandy
An unraced and now dead mare she hasnt got a bad record in the shed with nine wins from six runners and another black type winner in Greek Life.
Form:
A good fourth on debut he was pretty impressive taking an SAR maiden next out and followed that up with a gritty win in the grade one Hopeful last time out beating Harley Street and Call It A Comeback. He has progressed very nicely for a gelding with unstylish breeding and is proven on fast or slushy ground and from a wide or inside draw.
Track Works:
Did a sizzling 1.10 and 2 for the six furlongs and a fast 1.36 and 4 for the mile making him one of the best workers in the field.
SUMMARY:
He has a beautiful conformation for a router and at 16.2 hh is one of the biggest horses in the race. With obscure breeding and his huge frame he really does have the freakish look about him and could well be Joshua Stables first ever BC winner especially as he has a perfect draw and his stable companion inside him.
3 Bo Knows Smokey Stover Velazquez J R
011211
Trained by Smokey Stover who has 0 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 26.9
Sire: Bo Jangles
Won the grade one Travers in his six wins from 18 starts but was pretty inconsistent on the whole at the track. In his first season as a sire he has seven wins from 70 starts with no other offspring in the same class as this one.
Dam: Downtheredcarpet
Lightly raced she was second in the grade one Frizette as a two year old and the winner of an ungraded stakes at three. Whilst this is her best offspring she does have a good percentage of 11 wins from 30 starts from her foals.
Race performance:
Won a decent maiden and allowance before running in two statebred stakes races wining the FL Sire Stakes – Affirmed by an impressive three lengths. In his last start he came from out of the pack to gamely win the grade one Champagne by a nose from Call It A Comeback and Commanding Bee. He has certainly got better as he has stretched out over longer trips:
Public Works:
Ran a 1.10 and 4 six furlong work back in June and recently managed a 1.36 and 4 mile work at BEL making him one of the best workers in the race.
SUMMARY:
A stunning looker which is unusual for an early type he looks like he will be around for a long time. Not classically made for long trips he has just got better and better the further he has gone so that shouldnt be a concern. I like the way he negotiated a big field last time and he has proved he can find the winning post so he must have a great chance of giving Smokey Stover their first BC winner.
4 Commanding Bee Serenity Stables Ortiz I Jr
23123
Trained by Serenity Stables who has 2 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 17.8
Sire: Commanding Attention
A good maiden winner but poor in three other starts he is a second season sire and a son of Commanding. His foals have had 110 starts for 17 wins and only one other of his offspring has amounted to much.
Dam: Little Red Bee
A free track maiden winner but well beaten in her only other start she has had 9 foals and this is the only one of any note.
Form:
Has never been more than a neck away from being unbeaten in 5 starts there arent many with a record like this where he has lost a grade one by less than he lost a maiden. Narrowly beaten on his first two starts he then finally won his maiden by a neck over a mile before going to the grade one DMR Futurity and losing that by only a head over a furlong less. Weak Sheik beat him that day by a gnats whisker and then Bo Knows and Call It A Comeback did the same to him in his last start in the grade one Champagne. He has been dogged by pretty average draws and difficult trips so this great draw will be a great relief to his trainer and he will certainly be in at the end of this race,
Track Work:
He managed a very slick 1.10 and 2 for the 6 furlongs in August and has run 1.37 in both his recent mile works putting him right in the ball park. A pre race 58 flat shows he is ready to run a race.
SUMMARY:
A beautiful routing conformation marred only by a short femur which really shouldnt be an issue this early in his career. At 16.1 and 1224Lbs he is a big brute of a colt and will take some beating in a fight. His owner is looking for a third BC win and this one has all the right credentials to provide it.
5 Golden Boy D J C Racing Stables Gallardo A A
1313
Trained by D J C Racing Stables who has 2 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 15
Sire: Hannibal Lecter
A winner of 3 overnights on the track he never amounted to much but has done much better in the shed with 42 winners from 272 starts. He has a few stakes runners to his name but this is his first BC type.
Dam: Sammie Clause
A winner of three in a fair career with 21 starts she has had 11 foals, one of which, Mr C, didnt have a great win record but did qualify and run in the KYD.
Form:
A good winner on debut he ran a close third in the Bashford Manor before making all to take the ungraded Funny Cide. In his last start he ran a quarter length third in the Breeders Futurity a sniff behind Get Jiggy With It and Scarlett Ninja and he must be assessed in a similar way to those runners. He was proven on a faster surface before the Breeders so i am not worried that he is a soft ground specialist.
Public works:
A 1.10 and 3 work at BEL over the six furlongs was just about as good or better than anything in this race but that came after a 1.37 and 2 work for the mile which was a shade off the best of these.
SUMMARY:
This trainers two year olds are on fire this year and this one must carry a lot of respect because of that. He has plenty of pace and finished strongly in the mud so i am not worried about this trip although at only 15.1hh he may find the hustle and bustle of this race a little intimidating. Nicely made his conformation doesnt scream stamina but there is enough there to believe he can get the trip from a draw that wont over tax him early on.
6 Cardinal Direction Mb Stables Talamo J
21134
Trained by Mb Stables Mb Stables who has 13 BC wins and a two year old win % of 24.3
Sire: Go Cards.
A five year old who had a good record of 6 wins from 15 races although he never went beyond ungraded stakes level. He has had a promising start in the shed with 19 wins from 59 starts with his first crop of two year olds.
Dam: Broomstick Angel.
A pretty average racehorse with just one win, she was claimed in her last start for just $5. So far from three foals this one is the only one to win despite a full brother and a full sister of the same age.
Form:
Bought from Barcelona Farms pre race he raced twice under the Smokey Stover flag winning a nice maiden before being sold to Mb Stables for $300.000. Three weeks later he won the grade three Bashford Manor in gritty style and then ran very nicely in the SAR Special when beaten a length into third. In his last start he ran the stalk but just whacked away down the stretch to be fourth beaten a couple of lengths in the Iroquois behind Not To Be Denied, Red Cup and Get Jiggy With It. He disappointed me a bit that day as it was a soft pace but he didnt finish the race off very well and i wonder whether he will need a bit more restraint to turn the tables on the three in front of him.
Public works:
With a 1.11 flat for the 6 furlongs and a 1.37 and 1 mile work he is right in the same bubble as most of the runners.
Summary:
He is a nice sort but i do worry that this trip will find him out. He didnt seem to stay so well in the Iroqouis but if he gets a better trip with a bit of cover he may see it out better. He has come out of the best prep race for this and he ran fourth so he must be in the mix for place money.
7 Not To Be Denied D J C Racing Stables Lanerie C J
01111
Trained by D J C Racing Stables who has 2 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 15
Sire: Niagra
The winner of the BC Classic and the CT Classic twice he was one of the best race horses around when racing. He has had some success in the shed but probably hasnt lived up to his race record with his most notable offspring being Handsome who took the SUN Derby before running down the field in both the KYD and BEL this year.
Dam: Blood Red Rose
A good maiden from 4 starts she looked like a certain winner before being retired. This is by far her most significant offspring with just 6 wins from her remaining 9 foals.
Form:
Beaten a fair way in his debut at TUP he then went on to win a maiden claimer by no less than five lengths. After that very impressive win he took a WO allowance before a very strong win the grade two SAR Special. In his first start over a route trip he stalked the leaders and ran out an equally strong one length winner in the Iroquois beating Red Cup and Get Jiggy With It.
Public work times:
He has the best work time in the race of 1.36 and 2 for the mile and warmed up with a 58 flat a few days ago. The best work coupled with the best form i think he will start favourite for this race.
SUMMARY:
A big horse running on poor front leg soundness and a short femur i doubt he will be around too long but as i have said before he has the typical conformation of an early juvenile and it certainly hasnt stopped him looking very impressive to date. I doubted his ability to step up over ground last time out but he did so with ease proving he has both speed and stamina two abilities that will serve him well in this race. Not the fastest worker when he was notching up his four previous wins but his recent mile work must look pretty ominous for his rivals. He has proved his ability and comes from a stable with a strong hand in the BC races this year despite only two previous wins in the BC series and though this isnt an easy race to win he has everything required to do so.
8 Weak Sheik Mb Stables Bejarano R
12113
Trained by Mb Stables who has 13 BC wins and a two year old win % of 24.3
Sire: Gsin
Winner of 6 races for $515.000. Notable offspring, Made To Sin, second beaten a nose in the 2016 BC Juvenile. Clash Study, winner of the PA Derby
Dam: Weak Cheeks
Maiden with just one run. No notable offspring
Race performance:
A winner at TUP on debut he moved up in grade to finish a close second in a WO allowance next up. Upped in trip he won a seven furlong statebred allowance at WO very easily before taking on the DMR Futurity over the same trip. Settling in midfield he showed a nice turn of foot to get up by a head beating Commanding Bee and Chrystal Believer. In his last start he was drawn poorly and taken back in the grade one Pharoah Stakes before finishing strongly to be third beaten a length behind Questionable and Chrystal Believer.
Public Works:
His six furlong works are very strong running 1.11 flat no less than 5 times between June and August. His mile works have been 1.37 and 2 and 1.37 and 4.
Summary:
An unimpressive conformation he doesnt look like he will still be around as a four year old but very often the early types that win these races are ugly ducklings. His form is very solid with his two grade one performances putting him as a leading contender here especially as he looks like this trip is well within his scope. Trained by Mb Stables who has a great BC record he will be one of the favourites
9 Red Cup Our Athletes Van Dyke D
3112
Trained by Our Athletes who has 0 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 14
Sire: Quench
A fairly decent race horse he won 5 races including The Southwest and The Rebel but was largely disappointing in his efforts after that and was retired within 6 races of a KYD failure. He has a couple of good ones as a sire so far – The Perfect Day, Shake It Off and Bay Of Plenty to name but a few. He is one of the most successful sires in the game and at 9 can still produce horses like this.
Dam: Woke Up Like This
An unraced filly she has had 6 foals and this is the only one to have won a race.
Form:
A good third on debut he won his maiden impressively next out and went on to grab the Best Pal with a great late run and a nose victory. He had Chrystal Believer back in fourth that day and then went on to run a solid second to Not To Be Denied in the Iroquois with Get Jiggy With It behind in third. He has progressed nicely this year and finished off well in his last start suggesting he is at home over a mile plus.
Public work outs:
Ran a 1.10 and 4 six furlongs back in July and then a 1.36 and 4 mile in August but wasnt so impressive in his work at KEE when clocking a 1.37 and 2. Having said that his works are very good and there is nothing here that prevents him from being a winner today.
SUMMARY
This one has a near perfect conformation and is bred nicely so they are huge plus’s however at only 15.1 hh he is on the small side to carry a championship weight in a big field. That really is the only negative i can find around his chances and he is yet another who could easily win this race.
10 Guest Book Team 7 Illusions Stevens G L
011202
Trained by Team 7 Illusions who has 3 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 14.8
Sire: On High Alert
Clocked a grade three win in his career which saw him take six wins. As a stud he has yet to really break through with 15 wins from 72 starts although he also has a nice filly called Tornado Warning as his offspring so we may find his stats improve.
Dam: You Can Do It
A very good race horse she was third in the BC Fillies and Mares Turf and has a host of top class performances at the top level. Of her 8 foals she has this one and the stakes winner By Design so as mares at HRP go she is pretty successful.
Form:
Took a race before opening up his account and after a maiden win quickly took some black type with a smooth victory from a wide gate in the Victoria Stakes. A very close second the in the Best Pal when finishing off best he then ran in the Hopeful but could only manage sixth only beaten a length. Bought for a fairly expensive looking $477 he ran second in the FL Sire Stakes again from a wide draw in his first start for the new owner. That wasnt a bad effort for a gelding that has been plagued with wide draws so far in his career.
Public works:
Has a best of 1.10 and 4 for the six furlongs which is pretty much as good as anything else but could only manage a 1.37 and 2 mile work at the beginning of October.
SUMMARY:
You have to worry about his huge frame of 16.2hh and the average Heavy forehand but he has proven he has ability beyond his build and apart from that one negative has a decent routers make up. He has done well with some poor draws in his races, something that he suffers from again in this race, but i do worry that after six races he may have peaked already. Like just about every runner there is only a length or so between them on form and the same on works so with luck he has a good a chance as any.
11 Chrystal Believer Maxmillion Farm Albarado R J
213432
Trained by Maxmillion Farm who has 0 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 10.7%
Sire: Chrystal Coin
A maiden in 3 starts this is his first season as a sire with just 5 wins from 68 starts.
Dam: You Gotta Believe
A good race mare on the track she won two graded stakes in her 5 wins and contended the BC Fillies and Mares Sprint in 2016. She has had 5 foals and this is the only one to win a race so far.
Form:
Looked good on debut when a close second and quickly took his first race in a maiden at SA. Since then he has had 4 races in black type and has done very well in all of them. He stalked Questionable last time out in the Pharoah but could not get to the winner going down by a length and before that flew late from a wide draw to be beaten less than a length in the DMR Futurity behind Weak Shiek whom he beat in the Pharoah. Its easy to see him running well here and he is right in amongst the best form to win this but he has a tricky draw to race from although has handled wide draws before.
Work outs:
A 1.10 and 3 work back in June for the six furlongs, a 1.23 and 1 seven furlong work in September and a 1.37 flat mile work put him right in this but the 1.36 flat work he performed 2 weeks ago will strike terror into the hearts of his rivals.
SUMMARY:
A beautiful looker he has a brilliant routers conformation which is almost too good to be an early season two year old. The only thing against him is that at 15.2hh he is on the small side and the hustle and bustle of this race may be a disadvantage to him. Look this is a horse that if you cross-reference all the form lines is within a half length of the best in this field so with a small advantage somewhere in transit he could easily take the win. The other thing to note is the huge improvement in his recent work suggesting that he may have improved enough to turn the tables on those that beat him.
12 Get Jiggy With It Serenity Stables Leparoux J R
1131
Trained by Serenity Stables who has 2 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 17.8
Sire: Laffin Five Oh
A winner of two from six never raced beyond one win allowance level. A first season sire with 16 wins from 68 starts.
Dam: No Peeking Angie
A slow maiden runner unplaced in three this is her only significant offspring in six years at stud.
Race performance:
A winner on debut he then dead heated in an ungraded stakes race over the sprint trip and was bought at auction shortly afterwards for $55.01. In his first start for the new owner he made the running from a wide gate to be a two length third in the Iroquois behind Not To Be Denied and Red Cup. With a much better draw in his last start he came from off the pace to win the grade one Breeders Futurity in the mud beating Scarlet Ninja and Golden Boy.
Public Works:
a 1.11 flat in September over the six furlongs followed by a 1.37 and 3 mile work in mid October suggest the trip may be a concern.
SUMMARY:
His conformation screams soft going which is why he ran so well in the Breeders Futurity so his chances may go up a notch with some rain. His third in the Iroquois however proved he can live in this grade on better going so he is not a one trick pony. He is proven at the trip and has the form on the board so must have a sound chance although this draw certainly wont help especially if the race engine sacrifices him to the lead.
13 Questionable Mb Stables Saez L
031
Trained by Mb Stables who has 13 BC wins and a two year old win % of 24.3
Sire: No Doubt About It
An Eight race winner in a great career he won the BC Sprint in 2016. A son of Commanding he has also sired the useful two year old filly Blue Caviar and also the useful looking BC Sprint contender Con Artist in a two season stud career that has brought him 46 wins from 219 starts.
Dam: Return Line
Just a maiden winner in a 7 race career this is her only foal from 4 two year olds that has shown this sort of form.
Form:
Ran better than his debut when a rallying third in his second maiden start at DMR but then went to the grade one Pharoah as a maiden and made all to win by a cosey length. He beat Chrystal Believer and Weak Shiek that day which on lines through those two make him the best horse in the race. This is HRP though and form is a long way from consistent enough to take that on face value. He got away with a fairly soft lead that day and just kept going as the closers floundered and would probably need a similar set of circumstances today to confirm that form.
Track Work:
a 1.10 and 3 worker for the 6 furlongs he has worked 1.37 for the mile which puts him in the right ball park for winning this race.
SUMMARY:
The form lines put him on top and he comes from the champion trainer who mopped up a lot of BC races last year. Everything points to him as one of the favourites for this race but form lines can be pretty blurred at HRP and i doubt he is as clearer cut chance as he looks. You can’t fault his performance to break his maiden in the Pharoah and you cannot ignore his credentials here but this nasty draw will certainly make it very tough to do what he did in the Pharoah.
14 Call It A Come Back Estero Farms Pennington F
2132
Trained by Estero Farms who has 0 BC wins and a two year old winning % of 15.1
Sire: Take The Plunge
Three times a winner he ran quite well at graded level without winning but his form tailed off very quickly as a three year old. His most significant offspring would be Positive Thinking who won the grade one SA Derby and BEL as a three year old.
Dam: Marlboro Princess
Won a maiden claimer at the free track in 3 starts on the track but has done fairly well in the shed foaling Controlled Lion a stakes placed three year old and this one from 6 foals.
Form:
He started off his career nicely finishing a close second on debut and then winning in his second start both at high level. Though he has a length to find on his Hopeful form with Beach Dandy and Harley Street he proved in the Champagne that he loves the route trip when going down by a nose to Bo Knows. It will be interesting in hindsight to know which of the prep races was the best form for this race but whatever it is he must be given a sound chance on his form so far.
Track work:
managed an impressive 1.10 and 3 six furlong work but rather surprisingly hasnt done better than 1.37 and 3 over the mile
SUMMARY:
A nice routing conformation his short femur shouldnt be a problem this early in his career. At 16 hh he is a solid type but is quite light in the frame which will help him over longer trips. He is consistency itself and could easily turn around his two defeats and become the stables next TC hope. The trainer is looking for a first BC win but will be disappointed by the car park draw. He normally races off the pace so he may be taken back here but many a horse has lost a race hunting the rail while the others were running their races. Given a better draw i would feel more confident about his chances.
15 Cryptomining Axeman – Also Eligible –
Trained by Axeman he would only make the field with a defection from one of the other runners. Not a bad sort but looks like he has a bit to find to be a contender. Not far behind in both the Sanford and Hopeful he failed in the Breeders Futurity last time out in the mud and as the mud may be the thing that gets him in the race its not much of a positive.
16 Hymnal Williams9 – Also Eligible –
The second reserve he did pretty well in overnights for three good wins but was well beaten in The Champagne so even if he runs it is doubtful that he will be Williams 9 first BC winner.
OVERVIEW:
Well this is one of those races where a web of form really just leads you round in circles. Chrystal Believer’s last work certainly is worth noting but the wide gate will bring him right back into this field so i must go with Not To Be Denied who just keeps on winning and gets a good gate to run from.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES
