The Hopeful (Grade 1)- $350.000 Purse
SAR- For Two Year Olds
Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
September 5, 2016

The Saratoga meet comes to a close on Monday.

Yeah, we’ll pause after saying that.  That takes a while to set in, doesn’t it?  What a great year it has been up here at the Spa both in the real world, and in our virtual world.  A lot of great things occurred during these fantastic six weeks, and more will come next year.  You have to love that on the last day of such a meet, we have such a great graded stake taking place for two year olds with this Grade 1 Hopeful.  Because hopes and dreams are indeed what these horses will have.  They want to return here next year, preferably with a lot of success that occurred between now and then.  More then likely, most, if not all of these will chase TC hopes and dreams over the prep race season. They want to return here running in races like the Travers, the Dandy, or the Woodward, or other top turf events.  It won’t always go according to plan, and they may return here, but in a $40.000 claimer.  Or, pass through the area on the way to FL or FE.  Time will tell, and right now they all look like stars.

Last year, we thought that way about our winner, Grandeur.  He truly looked like a stud this time of year, but come prep race season, he was not able to step up.  He toiled around in optional claimers for a while this year though we must say he is showing resurgence on the turf and did recently win a Grade 3.  It would be the second and fourth place runners from last year’s Hopeful that would prove to be the most successful.  Atomic Twister, the runner up in the 2015 edition was also the runner up in the PRK.  Snowmizer, the fourth place finisher, was strong in prep race season, and got to the KYD, and we’ll just leave it at that for now.   Going back further, there are several well known past winners, many of which are still popular names for breeding purposes.

Another plot line in play is that Mb Stables and J R Leparoux could each win this race for the third year in a row.   Though unlike the last two years, they’re not teaming up on the same entry this time.  There are eight in the field, so let’s take a look at them!

#1- Cantilever (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by E S Prado)- Earlier in the meet, Cantilever picked up a win in the Grade 3 Sanford at an outrageous 70/1 price!  You’re not going to see that again on him.  The only horse to have won both races in our virtual world was Noble Warrior in 2010, who took them both for Paradise Stable.  Team 7 Illusions would certainly be thrilled to have a horse following in those footsteps with Cantilever.  He has been allowed to rest since then, and overall the trainer has been very patient with him.   A couple others come out of the Sanford as well, but none of them threatened him that day.

#2- General Geek (Serenity Stables, ridden by R J Albarado)- Looks to turn the tables on Cantilever here, as while that one was winning the Sanford, General Geek was no where to be found, and ended up in the eighth position.  He has also been allowed to rest since then, and he looks to be showing signs of improvement, so we need to expect a much better effort from him in this race.  Recently ran a mile work that was about a second and a half quicker then Cantilever’s mile work about two weeks prior.  Might be going against the grain a bit, but I think he’s gonna surprise people here, and I am making him my selection.

#3- Jolly Be Native (Gdp Inc, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)– This is a fine looking gelding that has putting up impressive SRF’s.  Most recently, he ran in the Grade 2 SAR Special, and went on to go wire to wire for the victory and earn that 95 SRF in the process.  He’s one of two returning from that race three weeks ago, and he meets up with the second place finisher who was coming on strong at the end in Final Delivery, and they’ll go a half furlong longer this time.   A lot of promise with this one that has still never run a bad race.

#4- Hold The Gold (Eastern Equine, ridden by D Moran)- Looking at his work times, it certainly does seem that this one will be following in the footsteps of Atomic Twister or Snowmizer down the road, but for now he’ll look to rebound from a sixth place effort in the Grade 3 Sanford right here.  In that race, he went right out to the front and held the lead until the final furlong before giving away late.  Perhaps there will be a tactical adjustment with him in this race, or else the trainer will hoping that with the rest he has had and time to grow, that he will finish stronger here.

#5- Ginger Haggis (The Sidley Stud, ridden by J R Leparoux)- The jockey has a chance to win this race for the third year in a row, having been aboard Grandeur and Just A Chance the last two years. Ginger Haggis has already made five starts this year, and three of them have been wins.  The first two were relatively modest, but he did take home the $125.000 SA Juvenile early in July. After that, a bid on the turf did not go according to plan, so the trainer brings him back to the main track. He’s looking a bit inconsistent to me so far, and I tend to pass on these.

#6- Shen Valley (Keikowin Racing, ridden by J Talamo)- While I am still very high on this horse, he’s going to have to finish this one out a lot better then he did the Best Pal at DMR three weeks ago.  The line doesn’t tell the full story, as he led most of the way there, but as soon as eventual winner Wipeout began to apply pressure on him late, Shen Valley packed it in.  He was fortunate to remain second in that race.  Now, the competition gets stronger and the race a little longer.  He is going to be feeling a lot more pressure, and is going to have to show more stretch desire here.  I’m a little interested to see if he goes back to tactic that worked well at BEL in June, where he came from well off the pace, and you can even say the same for the race that he won.  I like Shen Valley a lot, and still think he is going to do some great things in his career.

#7- Final Delivery (Mb Stables, ridden by R Bejarano)- Mb Stables looks to win this race for the third year in a row, and Final Delivery provides and outstanding chance for that to happen.  In four races so far, the Greek God colt has won twice and finished second twice.  One of those wins was the $125.000 Victoria Stakes at WO, where he went from eighth to first in the final furlongs, turning a two length deficit to a two length win.   Last month, he tried to run down Jolly Be Native here at the SAR Special, but came up just a little short.  This race is just a little longer, so perhaps that alone can make all the difference.

#8- Renal Pleasure (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- On the outside, Renal Pleasure seems like he might be a tick behind the others in this field, but it will all come down to how he handles going seven furlongs.  He’s one of three, with the most recent race being the win, as the king of FL-meet brought Renal Pleasure to western New York and got the job done.  This is quite a step up from that, with this winning time being a full second behind Final Delivery’s winning time at the Victoria.  Obviously, there’s a big difference between the tracks involved, but Renal Pleasure is going to have to step up here.

Prediction: (in a very wide open race): 2-7-1-3

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES