ELP Debutante
ELP Race #11 7f Dirt Stake
Purse $150.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.

1 National Dreamer La Canada Racehorses Bejarano R 120 —

A gutsy maiden winner in the mud she has worked well enough since, but it is tough to get a read on that win. I think this trainer has a few of these decent two-year-old prospects and always seems to get them to run well so as long as the ace draw doesn’t see her buried, she must be a chance but at only 15.1hh she may need a bit more time.

2 Gospel Team 7 Illusions Corrales G 120 —

A maiden win on debut isn’t an easy thing to do but she won with a bit in hand at FE and I really like how she has been working since then. Sometimes a debut win can take a bit or time to get over and we see the works flatten out a bit but this one has been working very strongly and may be a bit special. Maybe the draw monster has given us a clue here by putting her in the two gate which is arguably the one everyone wants.

3 Yeah Noha D J C Racing Stables Velazquez J R 120 —

She came from last with an impressive finish to take her maiden last time and has been working very strongly since. I like the fact that she has had the car park dealt to her by the draw monster in both her runs to date but has still managed good efforts and with a much better draw today she may be ready to launch into the big time,

4 Half A Virgin Tinkey Cohen D 120 —

You cannot do better than two from two but those wins have come at lesser tracks so she may have to find some improvement to be a contender here. Having said that she has won both of those from the car park and like Yeah Noha she gets a much better draw today so we may well see that improvement.

5 Chase My Faith Allinthegate Saez L 120 —

It was a long time between her debut win and her second appearance, but she showed plenty of improvement to run a very solid second in a big-ticket allowance at CD. I like the way she stuck at it that day and will certainly have benefited from the run. I think she comes in here a little under the radar.

6 Evil In Plain Sight TwinTowersRacing Beschizza A 120 —

Got no sort of run in the FT Debutante but did finish off well enough to think she has the ability to run well in a race like this. Her form is better than her works and the trainer can pull off some big races so whilst I won’t be tipping her, I wouldn’t be writing her off either.

7 Sled Fractious Talamo J 120 —

Experience can count for a lot in these juvenile races, and she has won two from three both at high level tracks, an on-pace type she will have to work from this gate but there is certainly plenty of heart in her chest and if she gets the run, she will be hard to out-finish.

8 Lawbreaker Diablo Diablo Garcia Mar 120 —

Probably the one to go to on recent form, I really like the way she stormed home in the Debutante at CD to be a very close fourth. That stakes experience will stand her in good stead, but she will have her work cut out from a similar gate in this one.

9 Lil Sunshine Threshold 120 —

Won her maiden well enough but that was from gate one and the draw monster has signaled that she may not be winning this one.

10 Nuclear Fallout Jive Inc. Murrill M 120 —

After an easy debut win, she got lost in the KY Juvenile and finished last. She was better last time out when finishing strongly in that CD allowance to dead heat for second and on works and form seems to fit nicely into that clone bracket which gives her a chance if racing luck is on her side.

11 Lady Lafayette The Sidley Stud Lopez P 120 —

Disappointed in the Astoria after a good debut win, she may have needed the race that day and should be better for the run. The draw makes it very tough for her but there are a couple of race engine scenario’s where the wide draws do well in these juvenile races so I wouldn’t be writing her off.

12 Copper Maiden Nakamura Stables Torres C A 120 —

A nice enough sort but you have to think that a combination of the draw, her form and her dirt works make it very tough to see her winning. Having said that like Lady Lafayette there are scenario’s that could play out to her advantage.

SUMMARY

Whilst these juvenile races tend to be a combination of clones and hopefuls this one seems at least to be less confusing than most. Of course, that could all change depending on what the race engine does but for me this looks to be between Gospel and Yeah Noha with maybe Chase My Faith in there too.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded