The Alysheba Grade II will be run on May 1, 2026, at Churchill Downs, covering 1 1/16 miles on dirt for 4-year-olds and upward with a purse of $750.000. This race has produced major older-horse winners, including Distant Breeze for The Sidley Stud in 2025, and Mb Stables has won recent editions with Centerpiece, Tempestuous, and Quality Art. This year’s field is deep, but Extreme Jet enters with top-class recent form and projects as the horse they may all have to catch.

Horse-by-Horse Preview

1. Extreme Jet
Trainer/Owner: Mb Stables
Probable Jockey: Velazquez J R
Odds: 13-4
Extreme Jet brings the strongest recent Grade I and Grade II profile into this race. He won the NOClas-G2 at 1 1/8 miles on March 21 after leading through every call, and before that was third in the PegWCu-G1 after again showing high early speed. His 2026 form is sharp, his lifetime earnings sit at $8,434.40, and he has already proven effective against elite older company. His chance to win is strong if he controls the pace or settles just off it.

2. All Take
Trainer/Owner: Alydar Stables
Probable Jockey: Zayas E J
Odds: 23-1
All Take is a seasoned 7-year-old with $5,121.16 in lifetime earnings and a huge long-distance record. He won the PegWCu-G1 on January 24 and followed with a fifth in the NOClas-G2. His best races make him dangerous, but he may need to rebound from that last effort. He has a solid upset chance if the pace becomes contested.

3. Fawkes
Trainer/Owner: Delta Farms
Probable Jockey: Pennington F
Odds: 3-1
Fawkes is the 2025 Wood Memorial winner and exits a strong second in the NOClas-G2, where he pressed Extreme Jet throughout and missed by a narrow margin. His 1 1/4-mile BCClsc-G1 victory last fall gives him proven class, and his recent form is very close to the top selection. He is a major win threat.

4. Sick Boi
Trainer/Owner: Royalty Stables
Probable Jockey: Esquivel E
Odds: 21-4
Sick Boi comes in off a win in the EsxHcp-G3 at Oaklawn, where he closed from mid-pack going 1 1/16 miles. He also owns a recent second sprinting at Turfway, so his form is current. The question is whether he can match the Grade I-tested runners here, but his latest win gives him a legitimate chance underneath and a mild win chance.

5. Stumble
Trainer/Owner: Mb Stables
Probable Jockey: Franco M
Odds: 25-1
Stumble has won 6 of 17 and comes off a fourth in the RBCHcp-G3 after winning an allowance at Sunland. His recent numbers are competitive enough to stay involved, but he faces a much tougher field here. His best chance is to sit behind the leaders and pick up pieces if the race softens late.

6. Nimbus Two Thousand
Trainer/Owner: Bigchief Stables
Probable Jockey: Gaffalione T
Odds: 8-1
Nimbus Two Thousand enters off a Ghostz-G3 win at Gulfstream, where he stalked and finished strongly at 1 1/16 miles. He also won the Tenaci Stakes last December at the same distance. His recent dirt route form is excellent, and he has a live chance if he repeats his last race.

7. Bondarchuk
Trainer/Owner: YME Stable
Probable Jockey: Espinoza V
Odds: 5-1
Bondarchuk has only six starts but has won four and finished second in the Ghostz-G3 behind Nimbus Two Thousand. He has never been worse than third and has already handled 1 1/16 miles well. This is a tougher class test, but his consistency gives him a realistic chance to win.

8. Kentucky Fox
Trainer/Owner: Night Rider Stables
Probable Jockey: Carmouche K
Odds: 11-5
Kentucky Fox comes in off two strong State Bred stakes efforts, including a clear Haynesfield win at one mile. He has tactical speed and arrives in sharp form, but this is a deeper Grade II field than his last two starts. His chance depends on whether that recent form transfers against open graded company.

9. Nationalist
Trainer/Owner: TwinTowersRacing
Probable Jockey: Sanchez M J
Odds: 6-1
Nationalist won a Keeneland allowance at 1 1/16 miles on April 3 after leading throughout. He is improving, but this is a significant class jump. He has enough speed to affect the pace and could be dangerous if left alone, though the win task is demanding.

Pace Structure and Prediction

The pace should be honest. Extreme Jet, Nationalist, Kentucky Fox, and possibly Fawkes have enough early speed to be forward. Bondarchuk, Nimbus Two Thousand, and Sick Boi look like stalking types who can sit just behind the main group. If Extreme Jet clears or controls the rhythm, he becomes very difficult to pass. If the pace gets too heated, Fawkes and Nimbus Two Thousand become the most dangerous closers.

Projected Winner: Extreme Jet
Main Danger: Fawkes
Best Value: Nimbus Two Thousand
Live Longshot: All Take

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES