The 2026 Texas Derby at Lone Star Park will be run on May 25, 2026, at 1 1/16 miles on dirt for 3-year-olds with a purse of $300.00 plus Texas-bred supplements. Although still a relatively young stakes, the race has already produced several notable winners including Royal Valor, America First, and Continental, while Mb Stables and TwinTowersRacing have both enjoyed success in the event. This year’s field combines established graded-stakes runners with several rapidly improving sophomores searching for a breakthrough performance.

1 – Flop

Owner/Trainer: Mb Stables
Probable Jockey: Zayas E J
Odds: 5/2

Flop enters as one of the classiest runners in the field despite failing to win this season. His third-place effort in the Louisiana Derby was strong, particularly after he tracked a demanding pace against high-quality company. Earlier this winter he won the Smarty Jones Stakes and the Coronation Futurity, repeatedly showing tactical speed and determination around two turns. Mb Stables has dominated this race historically, and Flop’s recent Aqueduct works suggest he remains sharp. His proven graded-stakes form gives him major appeal against this softer group.

2 – Neon Lemon

Owner/Trainer: TwinTowersRacing
Probable Jockey: Espinoza V
Odds: 12/1

Neon Lemon finally broke through with a front-running maiden victory at Aqueduct after repeatedly knocking on the door earlier in the season. He has shown natural speed throughout his career and nearly wired a state-bred mile event in February before getting caught late. The colt still lacks experience against stakes company, but TwinTowersRacing has consistently developed runners capable of taking major steps forward quickly. He appears likely to be involved early from the outset.

3 – Term Limits

Owner/Trainer: TwinTowersRacing
Probable Jockey: Sanchez M J
Odds: 10/1

Term Limits has consistently competed in tough company throughout the winter and spring without quite delivering the breakthrough performance expected. He was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby and previously ran respectably in the Louisiana Derby and Gun Runner Stakes. His tactical profile allows him to stay close to the pace, though he tends to flatten late against stronger rivals. This field appears more manageable than the Grade I and Grade II company he has been facing recently.

4 – Indian

Owner/Trainer: D J C Racing Stables
Probable Jockey: Centeno D E
Odds: 8/1

Indian comes into the race off a respectable fourth in the Woodstock Stakes after previously finishing seventh in the Florida Derby. Earlier this year he broke his maiden impressively at Turf Paradise and followed with an allowance victory at Sunland. He has gradually improved with distance and possesses a grinding style that could fit well at Lone Star. D J C Racing Stables has placed him ambitiously this spring, and his route foundation gives him a legitimate chance.

5 – Guapo

Owner/Trainer: Mb Stables
Probable Jockey: Hernandez R M
Odds: 4/1

Guapo arrives in excellent recent form after consecutive victories in allowance and stakes company. He dominated an optional claimer at Gulfstream in March and previously captured the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway. The recent gelding may help him focus even further, and his tactical versatility makes him dangerous in a race lacking overwhelming speed. Mb Stables has multiple serious contenders entered, and Guapo appears capable of continuing his upward progression.

6 – A Great Deal

Owner/Trainer: Luz International
Probable Jockey: Prat F
Odds: 15/1

A Great Deal enters after a disappointing fourth in allowance company at Keeneland and previously finished tenth in the Ruby Stakes. However, his sprint form earlier this year was considerably stronger, including victories in Texas-bred stakes races at Houston. The concern is whether he truly wants two turns against graded-level competition. His speed makes him interesting early, but the distance remains the biggest obstacle.

7 – El Heat

Owner/Trainer: The Sidley Stud
Probable Jockey: Juarez A J Jr
Odds: 7/2

El Heat may be the most intriguing improving runner in the field. He won impressively at Belterra earlier this spring before finishing a solid third in the Rushaway Stakes despite racing from far back early. His speed figures are consistently strong, and his recent workouts indicate continued development. The Sidley Stud has enjoyed major success with developing late-season sophomores, and El Heat’s ability to finish strongly gives him a major chance if the pace becomes contested.

8 – Ripple Effect

Owner/Trainer: Family Racing
Probable Jockey: Castillo I
Odds: 6/1

Ripple Effect finally broke through at Churchill Downs with an authoritative maiden victory at 1 1/8 miles after several frustrating near misses. Prior to that, he placed in the Battaglia Memorial and repeatedly hinted that added distance would help his cause. His pedigree and recent running lines both suggest he is moving forward at the right time. Family Racing appears to have found the proper spot for him, and his recent Monmouth workouts have been especially sharp.

Pace Structure

Neon Lemon appears likely to show the way early, with Guapo and A Great Deal also possessing enough tactical speed to stay prominent through the opening stages. Flop should secure an ideal stalking position just behind the leaders, while Term Limits and Indian likely settle in the second flight.

El Heat and Ripple Effect project as the strongest late runners in the field and should benefit if the pace becomes demanding. Lone Star’s configuration often rewards tactical runners capable of sustaining momentum around the far turn rather than deep closers trying to rally from far back.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Flop
2. El Heat
3. Ripple Effect
4. Guapo
5. Indian

Projected Winner – Flop

Flop owns the strongest combination of graded-stakes experience, tactical speed, and route consistency in the field. His Louisiana Derby performance stacks up favorably against this group, and Mb Stables has an exceptional history in the Texas Derby. If he reproduces his winter form while getting a cleaner trip than he faced in Louisiana, Flop looks poised to return to the winner’s circle.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded