9   SA    BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (GI)

$1,000.000    2yoF      1m      Turf           Weight 122lbs

The freshman ladies will be headed to the SA turf course around 4:25pm and we look at the field for the 2019 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf – Grade I  to be run a a mile.  This is an absolute stunning group of horses, as one would expect, and a couple of barns have shown up with a trio of of contestants – the usual, the powerhouse… Mb Stables.  But I’m going with the always polarizing Aer Stables for my top choice in this $1,000.000 showcase.  Slipdamaloo certainly looks the part after that scintillating victory in the Natalma Stakes (GI) at WO last out.  This fillies first two starts were ok, but once she was moved to the lawn, her real talents bubbled right to the top as she broke maiden on the left coast at DMR in fine fashion, then took the aforementioned stakes from an identical eleven-hole post.  She is a closer, but there is plenty of speed here to set up her running style and I think she can land this stable it’s second BC win. 

As always, to be the best you have to beat the best and Mb Stables is just that, especially on Championship Day.  I know I’m painting myself into a corner, taking the far outside post, but Unmistakable is a horse that just cannot be ignored, in my eye.  I know the daughter of Commanding only pockets a maiden victory, but of the speed in this race, and I do think she will be on/at the front end, she seems the one that can carry the speed to the finish line.  This is only her second start on the grass, also coming from the Natalma Stakes (GI) where she was third beaten a length, so I think her second start over the surface can make her a real threat to take top honors. 

My third choice keeps me on the outside portion of the starting gate, and I look for Diablo Diablo’s Pirate Petranella to be a huge factor in the outcome of this one.  Another that loves to flaunt her speed, usually from a stalking position, she comes to this race having won three of her last four starts and in undefeated on the grass.  She’s been working over the local turf and may actually be the one to beat today.

Looking through my “insiders” picks, the Green Card is leaning on Noel Hickey to keep improving, while Scotty’s pencil work includes the likes of Reminisce and Hollywood Greek, both with strong forms and the ability to be in the mix.  I can’t fault the logic of either, but we have to dance with who we brung… so let’s get this party started.  Good luck to all of the stables involved!

Here’s The Field –

Scored her third lifetime win from five starts while cruising home by two at Kee in the Jessamine (GII), and she looked good getting the job done that afternoon vs. a very classy and full field.  I think she had a stone cold excuse in that race at WO, as traffic got the best of her that afternoon.  She showed the tactical speed again at KEE and if she can repeat that performance, she should be a very tough cookie.  Jock returns from that KEE victory and all systems seem to be “go”.

Aer Stables shows up with a trio of classy ladies, but don’t confuse her name with her running style, as this one is a closer, for sure.  The Miss Grillo (GII) at BEL, last out, just wasn’t her cup of tea, as she just kind of galloped along happy to be in the herd.  I like the change of jock here today, and the styles may align nicely for this one.  She will certainly need a pace to run at, but that shouldn’t be an issue, and she will probably come with some odds.

Ran a knock-out race last out when second in the Natalma Stakes (GI) at WO and certainly did her best work in the late stages of that one.  That was a far different style from her back to back wins where she showed her speed and just wired horses at WO and then RET, getting her only stakes victory.  I’m not sure which way the barn will choose here, but she should make her presence felt no matter what they choose.  Jock returns from that WO near miss, and he knows what he’s sitting on.

Seems to have had a cellular outage in the last two races, applying the air brakes when the money was on the line.  Ninth in the fore-mentioned Natalma Stakes (GI) and Jessamine (GII) and since the same horses are around her today, it’s hard to get excited.  With all of that being said, these 2yo races are always for the upset minded, so maybe she finds a way to turns the tables. 

Part of the 3-headed Mb Stables entry and she turned some heads over this course last out, and at today’s distance, winning the Surfer Girl, coming from WAY back, and at 83-1 odds.  That’s her only stakes score, but if she can repeat that kind of late kick, she certainly must be looked at.  Sees a change of pilot for this one, but lands a big name, so she is in fine hands, and may be at grand odds again.

Second of the three Mb Stables entry and she’s another that made a huge closing effort in her most recent when second in the fore-mentioned Jessamine (GII) at KEE.  She’s made every dime on the turf, so she fits in well and may be one of many that will need a clear path when turning for home.  I’m not overjoyed with the change of rider, but what the heck do I know vs. the leading trainer?

Looked to be in fine form taking the Our Dear Peggy at GP last out, her first win for the new connections after a private purchase.  She closed well vs. Alw horses at DMR , also on the grass, so she seems to do her best work on the lawn and with only four races under her belt, her best may be yet to be seen.  Aer has a trio of contestants, as well, so he’s loaded up for this one.  Lopez makes the return riding engagement and I believe this one has a bit of intrigue to her. 

Was third in the Jassamine (GII) that so many of these came from, and was somewhat dismissed in that one, sent off at 36/1.  She’s been on the board in every start, including a pair of NY bred stakes races; however, that last out beauty was also her first try on the grass, so she has all the room in the world to improve off of that one and be a factor.  The barn changes riders for today, but again, only the best riders are here so you know she has quality in the saddle.

Another that came from the Miss Grillo (GII) and I think that race proves she’s happy to lose the extra 1/16th of a mile.  She put on the brakes late in that one to be fifth, but look good scoring vs. stakes company at MTH prior to two back when she won the Sorority Stakes on the grass in wire-to-wire fashion.   I think she has to use her tactical speed to be a factor here, so it’s how far can that speed take her that will spell her afternoon.  They switch back to Pennington in the saddle, but when these two were matched-up at SAR, it didn’t end well. 

Was undefeated prior to the private purchase and that streak ended in a bad way when this one was last of 10 in the Miss Grillo (GII).  I just can’t find an excuse for that one, unless the new new connections tried an instruction that just didn’t sit well with the filly.  They put Sanchez back in the saddle, and these two worked well together when they won the OT Juv F Turf at DMR back in Aug.  If they can rekindle the fire, maybe she pulls the upset, if not, it could be a long day.

The third of the Aer group and she certainly is the one that has my attention.  She looked like a world-beater last out, taking the Natalma Stakes (GI) north of the border.  Both of her wins have come at a flat mile on the grass, so this is right where she wants to be.  She won from the same post position last out, so it really is hard for me to find anything not to like about her.  Maldonado was up for both of the wins… and returns today.  She looks like the one to get past, in my eye. 

Things were going well for this one until she started down the graded stakes path and it’s been less than thrilling since then.  She won the La Senorita at RET back in Aug, and that was at a mile on the lawn; however sice then it was a last place effort in the DMR Debutante (GI) and a fifth place result in the Jessamine (GII) in her most recent.  The post position does her no favors, Espinoza returns in the saddle but he was there for that last place DMR try… I think you see where I’m going, she has to shake the bug or it’s not going to go well.

Just a shame that this nice filly gets park out this far, but she’s been a hand full of late, and maybe she has the ability to overcome it.  She’s won her last two outings which includes a last out win in the Miss Grillow (GII) where she beat many of her foes today.  She’s won both of her turf outings, which also included the Sharp Susan at GP where she also showed ability on wet sod.  Davis is back in the saddle off of that last out win and she’s certainly a horse with a big chance today.

Another contender that got parked in a less than preferable post.  Of course, she was in the twelve hole last out and ran on well to be third in the Natalma Stakes (GI) in her first effort over the green surface.  Mb Stables is always loaded and I know he’s high on this one.  Beschizza is back in the saddle from that fine graded effort, and I think she could be a horse that will be heard from for quite some time to come.

This one will need a scratch to draw into the field and even then she’d be in a less than perfect post to try to beat this group.  She did break maiden here at SA on the main track.  I think they’d prefer to try another spot for this one.

COZMAN Picks     11  /  14  /  13                Willie’s Green Card     7  /  11  /  12            Scotty    11  /  5  /  1

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES