1 Trench Admiral, trained by Grimley

This three year old has come a long way since running in a claimer back in February. Scraping home by a nose in the grade three Aristides at the end of May put this homebred on the BC trail and he has never stopped improving since that game win. A good fourth in the very competitive Bel Sprint Championship was followed up with wins in the Amsterdam and Kings Bishop and established him as the leading three year old sprinter. His last start was in the grade one Vosburgh, traditionally the best form race for this, and he ran a cracker to be a half length second to Speedbalz. With his crown snatched away by the improving Speedbalz he remains at the very top of his generation and will be looking for revenge in this race especially as he gets a great draw compared to his rival. For me he is the best three year old in the field and with three year olds getting their traditional HRP boost over the summer he may turn out to be the winner.

2 Hathersage, trained by Sanny Village

Another that has risen like so many from the claiming ranks he won the True North Handicap on course to a career best performance in the grade one Crosby where he finished third. Coming from a poor draw and flying late that was a huge run but he failed to follow that up when favourite in The Phoenix last time out when a beaten favourite. It is tough to weigh this one up as he really only has the one run that gives him a chance in this but with a decent draw he is certainly not out of the reckoning. He is not on my short list but could easily get some of the action.

3 Moon landing, trained by Mb Stables

The three year olds look pretty strong this year and this one is no exception. He had run well without winning at graded level before Mb Stables picked him up from Pan Farms for $150 but since then he has established himself among the best three year sprinters of the year. An easy win in The Decathlon Stakes and then a far effort in the Aristides set him up for a huge if not a little surprising win in the grade one Triple Bend. He showed that to be no flash in the pan with a great third in the Forego only beaten a half-length in third and last time out was right in at the finish when fourth in The Vosburgh. Like a good few of these runners he is within a length of winning this race and a competitive draw puts him right up there with a winning chance.

4 Chit Chat, trained by Team 7 Illusions

I hate to say it but this is yet another three year old that is almost impossible to separate from the rest of his rivals in this field and he looks to have hit top form right at the right time for this. With two horrible draws in the Gallant Bob and Phoenix he managed to grind out two excellent wins the last of which in The Phoenix he overcame all sorts of difficulties to get up by a nose. He has hathersage behind him that day and there is no reason he shouldn’t beat that rival again with a far more favourable draw. Being by the sire of the moment Charley Farley he will look to further that sires huge reputation and there is no reason he cannot take the win today.

5 Miss The Mummy, trained by Blushing meadows

I could easily just say ditto with all the three year olds in this race because here is another who has every chance of winning. The winner of the Forego from a horrible draw he flew late to be an eye catching fifth in the SA Sprint Championship last time. My only fear for him is his running style as he likes to come from way off the pace but with so many speed demons in this race a breakneck early pace could see him coming over the top of them. The trip is the only slight negative here as I think this is on the short side for him but with the right running of this race I can see him getting up late.

6 Blame Ratman, trained by Australia Wide

So dare I say it….ditto. Here is yet another three year old with a massive chance. He has the advantage of being trained by the BC specialist Australia Wide who will certainly have him ready for this and his big win in the SA Sprint Championship last time make him a leading contender. Of course there is chinks in his armour, he could only manage seventh in the Forego but had an awful draw in that race so it is easy to forget that run. Also the Sprint Championship is the only real form that can see him winning today so you have to rely on him producing that effort but with very similar works to all the others and a web of form that puts just about every runner within a length of each other there is no reason to not thin he can win.

7 Five Star Five, trained by Harrell Racing

Sixth in this race last year this is an honest sort who may find some younger legs too quick for him again. He has been competitive this year with a top win in the Smile Sprint Handicap but in most of his other efforts against the sprinters this year he has come out a length or so worse off. He got to within a length of the winner in the Forego last time so deserves to be in at the finish but he may lack the X Factor that will be needed to win this race.

8 Sweep The Event, trained by D J C Racing Stables

A winner of the grade three Commonwealth at the start of the season he has suffered what all the four year olds have suffered from since and that’s the emergence of the three year old generation. Third in the grade one Crosby and fourth in the Vosburgh beaten a length both times put him right in the firing line but at the end of the day the weight allowance these four year olds are giving the three’s looks to be enough to consign them once again to suffering a near miss. With so much being down to who gets the best trip in an impossibly close race he could well get his nose in front but there is enough evidence to suggest the winner will be coming from the younger generation.

9 Kiwiw Ripoff, trained by Threshold

He came to the fore with a flying win in record time in the Fool Handicap but he has been struggling a little since as he was carrying a feather weight in that race. A close third in the Bold Venture last time gives him a fighting chance in this but his works and form look a tick off the best of these and he will need a bit of luck to come out on top.

10 Wild Glory, Paradise Stable

This six year old is having a great year and along with a grade three win has some top placings in all the right races. Third in the BEL Sprint Championship and a late finishing third in the Vosburgh he, like so many of these, is right in the mix. I believe the weight allowance the three year olds get in this race will see them dominate but this is a gritty experienced horse and that could easily be what makes the difference. On the negative side he may find the six furlongs a little short of his best and the draw is sticky so that may be enough to look elsewhere for the winner.

11 Investment Grade, trained by Barcelona Farms

Bought for $450 Barcelona Farms had plenty of confidence that this son of Pink Panther had what it takes to win a big race. His only run for the new owner was over a muddy mile so is best forgotten but his very close third in the Vanderbilt Handicap is a much better example of his chance today. He won’t be far off them today but I just feel he is a touch off the best of them and with a tough draw that is enough to take him out of my top four. Whatever he does I think he may turn out to be a top stallion so all will not be lost for the veteran trainer.

12 Tequila Ruler, trained by Mb Stables

Dare I say it yet again….ditto. A neck behind the winner when third in the SA Sprint Championship and a head second in the Amsterdam pretty much puts this one in the pile of three year olds that could win this race. He overcame a widish draw in the Sprint Championship so the draw may not be as bad as it looks especially for a closer like him. His works aren’t stellar so you have to take his form on trust and he does tend to mix good and average runs so again you have to trust he is on the right page but if all goes well for him there is no reason he can’t win today.

13 Speedblaz, trained by Nordyke Racing

This shock winner of The Vosburgh last time out is just another piece in a very complicated 14 piece puzzle. He won that race very nicely and with a better draw you would have to like his chances but like one or two others you have to trust that win wasn’t just another part of the HRP lottery which seems to have taken place in the last few months. On that win last time out he has a big chance but that really is the only thing he has going for him and that is tenuous enough to make him a difficult horse to back.

14 Rule The Roost, trained by Sanny Village

Rounding off the field is the admirable eight year old who looks to have been well and truly shafted by the draw Gods. Taken from a cheap claimer as a seven year old his trainer has found something amazing in the veteran and turned him into one of the most popular sprinters in the game. Five consecutive triple digit speed figures and wins in the Carter Handicap and BEL Sprint Championship have made this a fairy-tale story and a very close second in the Forego last time also make it look like the fairy-tale could continue into the biggest sprint of them all. I would love to see the old fella win this but the car park draw will make it all but impossible for the gladiator.

Also Eligible

15 Welcome Change, trained by Alydar Stables

Would be right in this on his win in the Bold Venture last time out but he would have to make the field first and that looks doubtful.

16 Steadyashegoes, trained by Sanny Village

The winner of the Vanderbilt Handicap at grade one and he probably won’t make the field, I think that sums up the plight of the older horses against the three year olds in this race.

17 Hallelujah, trained by Eastern Equine

A huge second in the SA Sprint Championship last time couldn’t even get this horse in the field but with six from seven triple digit speed figures he may be the unlucky one as he could have had a winning chance.

SUMMARY

This race pretty much sums up HRP this year with just about every runner linked in a web of form that see’s all of them within a length or two of each other. The word lottery is banded about on occasion but I really feel that picking the winner of this race will come down to guessing who get the best trip because that WILL be the difference between winning and losing this race. The three year olds look to have been dealt a winning hand here with five of the six inside draws and as they have largely dominated the lead up races you have to think the winner will come from their ranks. Blame Ratman could well be the lucky winner today based on his draw and recent form but I say that with little confidence. But at the end of the day I love a great hero and on that note I am going to go against all the facts and go for Rule The Roost to beat Blame Ratman and Trench Admiral

Categories: BC 2015-17, THE BREEDERS CUP