BG Stakes (Grade 1) (KYD)- $800.000 Purse
KEE- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
April 3, 2021
One month to go now until the KYD, and after some incredible results last week on the trail, we enter what is the biggest day of the prep race season. A total of three 100-point races are on the cards today, and while this article will focus on the BG Stakes, the overall impact of the day cannot be understated. In looking at his race, unfortunately, the purse has seen a reduction of $200.000, but still offers $800.000 for its top four runners to get a piece of. The winner of the race in 2020 was Class Edge, a horse that recently was the topic of discussion for other reasons, but after winning the BG Stakes, he went on to finish second in the KYD. It’s been a struggle for him since then in all but one race. In history, winners of this race have had very good careers, but none of the names really jump out at you as having a long sustained record of success. Maybe this year’s winner can change that. Let’s meet the field!
#1- Invade The Storm (Saratoga Stud, ridden by A Bocachica)- Saratoga Stud won the BC Stakes three years ago with Simple Request, and is looking to get back to the KYD with this $500.000 private sales purchase from Fractious. The sale came after he won the Jerome, but he did not follow that up well in his debut for the trainer, placing sixth in the Gotham. Does have 10 points from that Jerome win and will need a top three here, and then do some scoreboard watching from the other prep races going on.
#2- Sports Page (John Henry, ridden by G Franco)- This was an exciting two year old to talk about, and it was a campaign that ended with him running second in the BC Juvenile. Aer Stables sold him after that race to John Henry, getting $700.000 in the sale, and up to this point, that sale has been a bust. Though do not write him off. He placed fourth in the Southwest in his last start, and he has always had the ability to work real well. At the moment, he is John Henry’s top horse on the leaderboard, but 26th overall. This is his last shot at the Derby.
#3- Afterburner (Arindel, ridden by E Jaramillo)- So, if we combine these private sales purchases of these top three, it means trainers spent a total of $1,700 on three horses to get into the Derby. When I see that, it makes me shake my head and really enjoy what Alabarda did last week, with a homebred, even more. Arindel sent $500.000 to Fractious on the exact same day that Saratoga Stud did for this runner that won the Grade 2 Remsen. In his only race with Arindel, he was seventh in the Rebel. Overall, he’s in a good spot at the moment on the leaderboard, 14th with 24 points. That may end up on the bubble after Saturday, but a top four here probably locks him in.
#4- Lions Destiny (Estero Farms, ridden by L Contreras)- Estero Farms did not have to spend a large sum of money to acquire this one in private sales, doing so for $45.000 early last year while he was still unraced. In seven starts, Lions Destiny only has his maiden win to speak of, and was recently a non-factor in the Grade 3 Southwest. His best race was a third in the RP Springboard Mile, getting him two points.
#5- Marine One (Smokey Stover, ridden by S R Bahen)- The first horse that we will look at in this race that is still with the trainer that bred him. This State Police gelding has picked up four wins in eleven starts so far, and has done particularly well at AQU early in his career, winning both the Nashua and the Remsen. Last month, he was a large disappointment in the TAM Derby, but we could be safe making that a throw out. His 14 points have him 24th on the leaderboard, and he is currently third of Smokey Stover trained horses.
#6- Kinch (Whitewater Stables, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- Last week in the preview, I said that I would love to talk about Alabarda winning the FL Derby, but couldn’t pick him. So, now I am going to say I would love to talk about Whitewater winning the BG Stakes, but can’t pick his horse. Whitewater is not a stranger to winning graded races, of course, but it would be cool to see him get into the KYD as someone who has been at the game for a very long time. Kinch has one win in five starts, and did run second in the Smarty Jones after a good start. If only he didn’t pull that no show in the Rebel.
#7- Booster (Estero Farms, ridden by B J Hernandez Jr)- Picked up from Aer Stables for $110.000 last November when he was still a maiden. In seven starts thus far, he has just the one win, but stepped up very nicely in his graded debut last month in the Grade 2 Rebel, placing second, and there is no reason to believe that he cannot build on that here. That result gave him 20 KYD points, and he stands 18th right now on the leaderboard. So the obvious next statement is that total needs a booster.
#8- Holy Water (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by F Pennington)- Right now, D J C Racing Stables is on the outside looking in for the KYD, with his best horses right now being 32nd and 33rd on the leaderboard. Neither of them are Holy Water, as his five points place him 44th. This is a horse that runs decently, and on Easter weekend, he’s a good name play if nothing else. Needs to run like he did, and a tad more, when he was second in the Withers.
#9- E Road (Fractious, ridden by J Lezcano)- It’s been a good prep race season for Fractious, as he currently has two in the top nine, and three in the top 21. Plus, he picked up $1,000 from trainers to get horses he owned that are running in this race. E Road is a third quarter two year old, so has less starts than others, but he’s won two of his four races. So, why not run a filly? Last month, she won the $250.000 Busher, and looks like one that is going to like increased distances. There’s room for one more Fractious horse at the top, after all.
#10- Test The Party Code (Mb Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- He was a $250.000 private sales purchase on the day before Halloween, and while he is still looking for his first win in Mb Stables, he has consistently been hitting the board though he did miss in his last start, which was the Rebel. This year, he has run third in both the Sham and the Southwest, and could be one to root for here for trainers on the bubble because probably he would not be picked as one of Mb’s three if he did get into the top 20.
#11- Abominable (Mb Stables, ridden by F Geroux)- This gelding has three wins in ten starts, though his biggest win has come on the turf. That was in the $250.000 Cup and Saucer Stakes, for ON-breds, last fall. As a three year old, he has only made two starts, and each of them have been on the grass as well. It’s back to the main track right now, and this is a horse to watch if he makes a successful transition to it. You have to think that the trainer is very confident about him, or else he would not be here. He doesn’t have to get Abominable into the KYD, after all, and could have just kept on the grass while his other weapons handled the Derby chase.
#12- Grayte Cruise- Scratched
#13- Ricki Tikki Tavi (La Canada Racehorses, ridden by K Carmouche)- A winner of three out of nine so far in his career, but his most impressive performance was a second place showing in his last start, the Grade 2 San Felipe. That got him 20 points for the KYD leaderboards, and he presently stands 22nd, so he is right on the bubble. He’ll need to finish 3rd here, at least, to get into the race. Fourth, maybe, could cut it with favorable results elsewhere. There are many good horses in the field, but there is not the one horse that stands out to me as the one to beat. I think that makes this a good race for Ricki Tikki Tavi.
#14- Contradiction (Aer Stables, ridden by S Ryan)- Like Ricki Tikki Tavi, Contradiction is coming out of the San Felipe, a race that he finished one spot the rival he starts next to here. That followed up another third place at SA, coming in the Lewis Stakes. He’s run well there, but has decided to come east, maybe to turn the thirds into a win. He’s 27th on the leaderboard right now with his 12 points, and is fourth of the trainer’s options right now.
#15- I Show You The Way (Alydar Stables, ridden by G Melancon)- Getting in off the also eligibles, I Show You The Way is looking to follow up what Alabarda did in the FL Derby. This was a big purchase for the trainer, picking him up for $200.000 in December after just one race, one that he won. He has not been victorious since, but his works say he can run with them.
Prediction: 13-5-11-2
— NS
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
