April 16, 2016

There are few who would believe that the Grade III Beaumont would actually affect the starting line-up for the Grade I KYO but there are two fillies amongst the eight entered on Sunday afternoon on the cusp of making the final 14 and all it will take is a victory to secure their spot come the first Friday in May. With $150.000 on the line, the others are fighting for a chance to add black-type to their profile while joining the likes of Shes A Class Act, Termagent, Sparkling Wine and Crazy Horse as tough KEE winners.

1-Sweet Bay Jones (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Oval Express Farms)

Sweet Bay Jones added Lasix and Bute to her profile while making the step up in class from the maiden ranks and graduated with a big win at FG that leads her here to the Beaumont but the inside track might not be the place to be if she wants to close from dead-last. A daughter of Grade I winner The Bay Of Kathology, she continues to add more ground and find increasing speed but the buck has to stop somewhere and this is a very tough field to battle.

Analysis-Closer needs to find room at this longer distance

Fair Odds-10/1

2-Livin On The Edge (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-TwinTowersRacing)

Livin On The Edge is a two-time winner but both have come against much easier company and facing Graded Stakes rivals has been a tough task for her, and one that does not get easier in this spot despite the cutback in distance. She was unable to make any gains in the Davona Dale last time out after breaking in midpack behind quick speed and if the pace is similar here, she will find it hard to close into the fractions and that could leave her short when it counts the most.

Analysis-Not the same filly when facing this level of competition

Fair Odds-15/1

3-You Gotta Believe (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aarons Hosses)

The issue that You Gotta Believe faces on Sunday afternoon is one of surface, since all of her victories to date have come on the grass, and with this race going short on the main track, she will have to overcome her late closing tendencies against proven fillies. She outraced her extreme odds in the Las Virgenes but ran to her longshot status in the FG Oaks and unless she gets into the race early, she will be left at the mercy of her trip under a proven but unfamiliar jockey.

Analysis-One of the closers but not as good as others

Fair Odds-20/1

4-Wu Wei (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Keikowin Racing)

Wu Wei was impressive enough in her maiden score to garner favouritism in the SUN Oaks and while she was able to get to the lead at the head of the lane, the distance proved to be a little too long and the move back to this seven-furlong trip might be exactly what she needs. Speed is really her forte and there has been plenty of it on the workout tab, and in races, and getting to the early lead will be her biggest weapon against closers to her inside and on a tricky KEE surface that seems to be play to speed going short.

Analysis-Cuts back in distance and that could be the key

Fair Odds-5/1

5-The Hanging Tree (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Riggins Racing)

There is a lot to like about The Hanging Tree in the Beaumont if you can forgive that tiring seventh in the Davona Dale and even though she took four starts to break her maiden, she looks to be the type of filly who will love this middle sprint distance and might just get the pace to chase from her inside rival. A victory here and she earns her place in the KYO, as long as a few others things do not happen, and that kind of motivation can prove to be very effective for a filly who has been knocking at the door and finally gets a chance to bust it down.

Analysis-Must win to earn her trip to CD
Fair Odds-4/1

6-First And Foremost (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

First And Foremost has two stakes wins and a bang-up second in her last four starts but failed to gain any late ground as the top choice in the Davona Dale and that race has become key to this event, even if none of the entrants here failed to hit the board in that race. She has been excellent sprinting and nearly stole the show in the Forward Gal and that kind of effort will be enough to win this race, especially if that excellent workout at AQU is any indication.

Analysis-Big chance given her sprinting form and her ownership

Fair Odds-7/2

7-City Bus (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Tiratzo)

Since being purchased for only $17.500, City Bus has proven be a solid performer at GP with a mid-level allowance score and a win in the Any Limit over a muddy main track and now, she looks to build on that effort and score her fourth in a row with a stalking outside trip. A workout in preparation over the KEE surface was excellent and she seemed to improve with a shadow roll so look for another big effort as she continues to climb in class, with bigger races in her division well within her grasp.

Analysis-Goes for four in a row against a tough group of fillies

Fair Odds-8/1

8-Exclusive Ballerina (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)

All Exclusive Ballerina needs to do to earn her spot in the KYO starting gate is beat half of the entrants in the Beaumont on Sunday but owner Drabfantasy is looking for much more than that as she looks to carry her form from the SUN Oaks into KEE. A dead-heat for victory last time came against rivals who have come back to place in both the SA Oaks and the Fantasy and with another outside post, but in a smaller field, she should be able to sit outside and make another big run that could take her all the way to CD, like her stablemate one year ago who almost took down the big prize all by herself.

Analysis-Outside runner should get a great trip

Fair Odds-3/1

Overall

It is difficult to focus solely on the Grade III Beaumont without looking forward to the KYO and for two of the top three in expected favouritism, the future is bright with a good effort leading to a start in that prestigious $1000.000 event. Exclusive Ballerina comes in off a huge win in the SUN Oaks and gets another outside stall while The Hanging Tree needs to win to earn her spot but was excellent in the GP Oaks and should improve off that effort. Splitting them is First And Foremost, who goes postward for an incredibly hot stable at the moment and should be best sprinting if she can break well, control the early fractions and have the lead turning for home in the short KEE stretch.

Prediction

Win-Exclusive Ballerina (3/1)

Place-First And Foremost (7/2)

Show-The Hanging Three (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES