August 25, 2015

Forego is routinely named as one of the Top 10 North American racehorses of all-time and on Saturday afternoon, as part of a mammoth Travers undercard, the Grade I event named in his honour will take place for a huge $700.000 purse and a guaranteed spot in the BC Sprint. A full field of 14 has been signed on for the seven-furlong contest but defending champion Miss The Mummy is not in the field and while there are a few three-year-olds tackling their older rivals, it is the true veterans who seem to have the advantage, led by a seven-year-old who has hit his best marks at this distance.

1-Overspender (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Overspender has spent almost his entire career going long but has found many of his races a little too taxing and now cuts back to a sprint in search of a quicker pace that will set up his closing ability. He moved too quickly in the WV Derby and was outfinished to the wire by a pair of solid runners and despite workouts that are slower than others, his running style suits this race well and he will be closing at the end as best he can.

Analysis-Inside runner needs to find a lane

Fair Odds-12/1

2-Speedballz (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Nordyke Racing)

Grade I Vosburgh winner Speedballz has only started twice this year and a wire-to-wire win at RUI came at more than 25-1 over a sloppy track; in short, if you did not have him then, do not take him here against a decidedly tougher field. He capitalized on some quick fractions in a number of starts last year and might get a similar set-up this time around but he has not faced this caliber of field in quite a while and that puts him at a disadvantage, especially if he tries to go out and set the pace like last time.

Analysis-Third start off the layoff is usually the best

Fair Odds-10/1

3-Hallelujah (Seven-year-old bay horse / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Hallelujah has been first or second in six starts since his worst finish ever in the 2015 Forego but that event turned out to a dismal gauge of talent since the entire field of 14 was covered by five-lengths, something not expected to happen this year. He rose to the top with a second in the CD and a victory in the Triple Bend at SA and while he could have stayed in California for the Grade II Obrien, he takes a shot at SAR once again and has the right momentum to sit pretty and make a powerful bid down the lane.

Analysis-Has become a seven-furlong specialist at the right time

Fair Odds-2/1

4-Power And Money (Four-year-old black gelding / Owner-Kopites)

Power And Money has changed hands a number of times over the past year and in his first start for the new barn, failed to handle the mud in the Grade I Whitney, necessitating a return to shorter races and hopefully, better form. His closing kick in the True North at BEL was quite good and the extra furlong will help so simply toss out that last effort and look for his true sprinting ability to come through, even if it is not quite good enough to get him to the top four.

Analysis-Returns to sprinting and should be much better

Fair Odds-10/1

5-Texas Sky Hawk (Five-year-old bay horse / Owner-Aer Stables)

Texas Sky Hawk is one of those horses who has yet to find his best distance despite 25 career starts and if you look back to his effort in the Midnight Lute, you have a speedy individual who might be quite good at seven-furlongs if given the chance. Two-turns events have not been as kind to him and even though he was good enough to charge home for second in the Salvator Mile, it came behind a wicked pace and he might run out of room here if the other closers block his late run.

Analysis-Might be best at this distance but needs to prove it

Fair Odds-8/1

6-Mazula Ruler (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

After starting his career in promising fashion, Mazula Ruler has only won twice in his last 15 starts and his latest win came over the mud at MTH, not the best gauge when testing the top class sprinters at HRP. His last two races have resulted in the best speed ratings of his career but those efforts are still below the best in this field and more importantly, came at longer distances; he is now asked to duplicate those efforts going shorter and against other speedier types who will make things difficult for him.

Analysis-Cuts back and does not appear to be as fast as others

Fair Odds-15/1

7-Fly Millennium (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-John Henry)

Already a multiple Graded Stakes winner at this distance in 2016, Fly Millennium was incredible in a runner-up effort facing the best in the BEL Sprint Championship and while he bounced in the Grade II Amsterdam, that came at a shorter distance than his best and he will most assuredly appreciate the move back to seven-panels. His speed ratings are excellent and he would easily have been one of the favourites in the Grade I Kings Bishop but tries to earn his spot in the BC Sprint instead and gets a break in the weights from his older rivals, which is always good.

Analysis-In form right now and will love the distance

Fair Odds-3/1

8-Domination Nation (Six-year-old chestnut horse / Owner-Double J Stables)

MD Sprint winner Domination Nation was a solid third in the Smile Sprint and an even better second in the Grade I Crosby at DMR but is shipping across country for the Forego when he could have stayed in his backyard for the Obrien and that might be asking a lot for a six-year-old making his seventh start of the year. His best effort came at seven-furlongs in the Confucius Say at CT but that was around two-turns and at this one-turn distance, he will have to get into the race a little sooner and still hold onto something for the drive, which has been tough for him to do in these Grade I events.

Analysis-At his best right now and even that might not be enough

Fair Odds-6/1

9-Moon Landing (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Moon Landing came up with the goods last year in the Triple Bend and parlayed that into a third-place finish in the Forego and came up with another great effort in the same race this year, albeit a runner-up placing, that will set him up again for a top notch showing. He found himself too far back in 2015 and could only manage third as one of the choices so expect him to be a little closer from his outside post and if he gets going, could be extremely dangerous off his current form.

Analysis-Almost won this last year and looks better now

Fair Odds-7/2

10-West Northwest (Six-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Grimley)

West Northwest has faced some very tough customers since being purchased for $46.000 and with a win in the Cigar Mile, a second in the Donn Handicap and a third in the CT Classic, he is well suited for a race like this based on class. Based on distance however, he is not in the same league as others and while he could have gone to another race around two-turns, he finds himself in this one-turn sprint and will have to make the best of it down the lane.

Analysis-Not a sprinter but finds himself here anyway

Fair Odds-15/1

11-Trench Admiral (Four-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Grimley)

Trench Admiral won the Kings Bishop on this same weekend last year and used that to score a victory in the BC Sprint but his four-year-old season has seen him go winless in five starts but finish a length from victory in four of those efforts. He is always in contention but has not been able to break through for wins like he did last year and although his speed ratings are good, that lack of closing ability makes him another longshot in this extremely tough field.

Analysis-Likes SAR but has not had the closing kick he once had

Fair Odds-6/1

12-Generals Companion (Four-year-old black colt / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)

Generals Companion came up with the best effort of his career in the BEL Sprint Championship and if you throw out his MTH Cup effort over a good course, he has a decent shot to hit the board with a stalking trip from his very wide post. It is always tough to get a handle on how a route horse will handle the cutback in distance but this colt seems to have a knack for putting together decent sprinting efforts, although the Grade I class might prove to be his downfall.

Analysis-Cuts back in distance and could be a sleeper

Fair Odds-8/1

13-Captain Rush (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Australia Wide)

Minor stakes winner Captain Rush ran away from his rivals in an optional claiming event at DMR but lacks the necessary experience at the Graded Stakes level to really contend for the win, even if he does come from a top class outfit that has a history of scoring big with these kind of runners. A one-mile workout at GP might have swayed him to this race rather than a race like the Shared Belief or the Iselin Stakes but on paper, he is a cut below the top runners and will have to come through with his best effort just to hit the board.

Analysis-Not even the best three-year-old in the race

Fair Odds-30/1

14-Oversell It (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Kept in sprinting company for almost his entire career, Oversell It finally broke through the glass ceiling with a neck victory in the Grade I Vanderbilt and will try for the treble with the Forego, followed by a possible start in the Vosburgh after that. First things first and for this four-year-old, he has to overcome the widest draw to get the job done; if anyone can do it, this colt can and the hope is that he can save a little ground around the bend and turn that into a charging victory as one of the top choices.

Analysis-Grade I winner will try to double up in this tough spot

Fair Odds-5/1

Overall

You have to think that given his four race season, the fact that he won the Grade I Triple Bend in preparation, and has ample experience at this seven-furlong trip, Hallelujah will be the favourite in the Grade I Forego with eyes on a return to the BC in the Sprint, not the Classic. Fly Millennium was second in both the Stephens and BEL Sprint Championship and gets a break in weights that could help him turn the tides while Moon Landing was second in the Triple Bend but a multiple winner at this distance as well and could be a surprise after finishing third in this event last year.

Prediction

Win-Hallelujah (2/1)

Place-Fly Millennium (3/1)

Show-Moon Landing (7/2)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES