On February 28, 2026, Gulfstream Park stages the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II), a Kentucky Derby prep for three-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles on dirt (Race #12) for a $400.000 purse at 121 lbs. This race has a strong recent pattern of dominance by Mb Stables, who has won repeatedly in the last decade and is back again with multiple live runners.
1 – Joykiller
Owner/Trainer: Mb Stables
Probable Jockey: Lopez P
Odds: 12/1
Joykiller is an intriguing profile because his most recent win came at Gulfstream, but it was on the turf at 1 1/16 miles over a “good” course, where he sat close and finished with purpose. He’s 2-for-3 lifetime and clearly has athleticism, yet the key question is the surface switch—his form is almost entirely built on grass, and his lone dirt sprint was earlier and less informative for this two-turn dirt assignment. If he transfers that route stamina to dirt and holds position early, he can make noise, but on paper he looks more like a talented unknown than a proven win candidate at this level.
2 – Long Ride
Owner/Trainer: Williams9
Probable Jockey: Jimenez A
Odds: 9/2
Long Ride arrives in sharp form and with the kind of dirt-route foundation that wins these. He’s won his last two, including a 1 1/8-mile allowance where he controlled matters on the lead and earned a strong 96 figure. He also showed professionalism breaking his maiden at a mile after pressing the pace. The notes indicate a recent sale, and his current barn has taken over a colt who looks to be improving at the right time. If he clears and gets comfortable up front, he has a very real chance to take this all the way.
3 – Hurts
Owner/Trainer: Royalty Stables
Probable Jockey: Velazquez J R
Odds: 5/2
Hurts is the proven class performer in the field and the most reliable win proposition based on what’s been shown against top company. He has danced in the biggest spots—Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Hopeful (G1), Remsen (G2)—and consistently ran figures that fit right here. His most recent start in the Southwest (G3) shows he can press fast-paced numbers and still finish, even when not winning, and he owns the kind of early speed that keeps him out of trouble. With Velazquez J R staying aboard and a strong Gulfstream work tab coming in, he looks set to deliver his best at a distance and surface that match his established strengths.
4 – Wealthy B Wonka
Owner/Trainer: Mb Stables
Probable Jockey: Santana R Jr
Odds: 8/1
Wealthy B Wonka has been knocking on the door in graded preps, finishing third in the Withers (G3) and previously competing in the Jerome. He’s not a pure need-the-lead type—he can sit within range—yet his finishing punch has been a bit inconsistent when the real running starts. The upside is that he’s already been tested around two turns and has the foundation to stay 1 1/16 miles. If he works out a stalking trip behind the top speeds and tips out at the right time, he can absolutely hit the frame, and with Mb Stables’ history in this race, he can’t be dismissed.
5 – Swamp Reaper
Owner/Trainer: The Sidley Stud
Probable Jockey: Franco M
Odds: 15/1
Swamp Reaper feels like a colt who keeps showing up and giving you an honest run without yet proving he’s a win threat at the higher level. His recent races at a mile and 1 1/16 show him sitting mid-pack and trying to grind, but the finishes suggest he’s been more competitive early than decisive late. The positive is he’s handled dirt routes and shouldn’t be intimidated by the trip; the negative is he now meets deeper, faster horses with more upside. He’ll need either a major step forward or a race shape that collapses late to threaten the top.
7 – Mankayia
Owner/Trainer: Delta Farms
Probable Jockey: Gaffalione T
Odds: 10/1
Mankayia has flashes of real ability—he’s won three times and has shown he can put himself into the race early—but his most recent mile try didn’t deliver the forward move some expected after a sharp win at longer sprint-to-route patterns. He has enough pace to be involved, and with Gaffalione T listed, the intent could be to secure a strong position into the first turn and make this a race of pressure rather than patience. Still, he must prove he can finish his work against this particular group if the leaders don’t come back.
8 – The Wrong Guy
Owner/Trainer: Night Rider Stables
Probable Jockey: Geroux F
Odds: 7/2
The Wrong Guy is one of the most dangerous players because he has already shown he belongs in the graded route conversation, finishing second in the Lecomte (G3) at 1 1/16 while chasing strong pace numbers. Claimed earlier in his career and now clearly thriving, he brings tactical speed and the ability to sustain it through two turns. If he reproduces that Lecomte effort, he’s a major win threat—especially if the pace gets contested and he can sit just off the top one rather than being forced to duel.
9 – Justified
Owner/Trainer: Alydar Stables
Probable Jockey: Salles L
Odds: 20/1
Justified is a hard one to trust for the win, but not impossible to include in the broader picture. He was a big outsider in the Jerome and didn’t factor, but he bounced back with a much more credible effort when second in the Holy Bull (G3) over a “good” surface at this same 1 1/16 distance. That run suggests he can handle the track and trip when things go his way, and he has enough positional speed to stay attached early. The question is repeatability—can he string two strong routes together against this deeper group?
10 – Hengroen
Owner/Trainer: Delta Farms
Probable Jockey: Sanchez M J
Odds: 12/1
Hengroen’s form is sneaky because he has already met a couple of these and wasn’t disgraced, including a second-place finish in the same Gulfstream turf route where Joykiller won. He’s shown enough professionalism to compete, and his worktab suggests he’s holding his condition. The problem is similar to Joykiller’s—his most visible route effort here is turf-based, and his dirt route try at Fair Grounds was a learning experience rather than a breakthrough. He’s not without a path, but he likely needs both improvement and a favorable trip.
11 – Dune Road
Owner/Trainer: D J C Racing Stables
Probable Jockey: Bejarano R
Odds: 6/1
Dune Road has quietly become one of the more interesting “value” horses because his recent races show consistent effort against decent company, and his figures are competitive with this group. He was second in a mile event at Sun and has repeatedly held his own when stretched out. He doesn’t need the lead, but he also doesn’t want to be too far back, which makes his early placement critical from this post. With Bejarano R aboard, expect a patient but purposeful ride—if he’s within striking range turning for home, he can absolutely threaten the exotics and is not out of it for the win.
Projected Pace Structure
Long Ride looks like the most likely to set or force the pace, with Hurts and The Wrong Guy positioned to press or stalk in the first flight. Mankayia can be forward as well, potentially adding heat into the opening half if he’s sent. Behind that, Dune Road and Wealthy B Wonka look like the primary “second wave” stalkers, with Swamp Reaper and Justified more dependent on a late run and some pace stress in front.
If the pace is honest-but-not-suicidal, the race shape favors the proven class horses sitting closest to it.
Predicted Winner: Hurts (5/2)
Hurts owns the strongest combination of graded form, speed, and route experience, and he’s shown he can show up against elite company and still finish. The Wrong Guy is the most obvious danger if he runs back to the Lecomte, while Long Ride is the speed factor who can absolutely take this gate-to-wire if left alone.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES, THE TRIPLE CROWN