September 18, 2015

Many of the good three-year-old filly sprinters this weekend are headed to the more lucrative CT Oaks but the Grade III Dogwood still has attracted a field of five, including two stakes winners, who will try to negotiate seven-furlongs over the CD dirt. Changes in both distance and timing of the race, from Spring to early Fall, have changed the complexion of the race but both Crazy Horse and Big Moon Spirit went on to further success after winning this event and that bodes well for any of the fillies trying to step up to bigger races down the track.

1-Hidden Hollywood (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Hidden Hollywood broke her maiden at GP three starts back going a flat-mile and has been second-best in two recent allowance attempts so the cutback in distance might be the key as she steps up to her first Graded Stakes attempt in only her sixth career start. She looks to be the lesser of the two entrants for her connections, based on speed ratings and overall form, but that last workout looks dynamite and she might appreciate a return to a shorter event, where she can flaunt her speed.

Analysis-Might enjoy getting back to a sprint

Fair Odds-10/1

2-Highly Doubted (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Highly Doubted has been quite good going short over both the turf and the dirt and after a second-place finish to multiple stakes winner Blarney Bee in the Union Avenue, she moves back to her own class and should love the distance and the class. Recent five-furlong workouts have been quite solid and her speed ratings are some of the best in the field but this seven-furlong distance is tricky from off the pace and unless she gets some decent fractions, she might find it too tough to catch the leaders in the late stages.

Analysis-At the mercy of the speed to her outside

Fair Odds-3/1

3-Grey Wind (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)

After facing some very tough NY-bred fillies and mares all season long, Grey Wind stepped out of the box and won the Casino Stakes at ALB with a very nice off-the-pace effort and now, looked to double her stakes tally in her step up into Graded Stakes competition. Three wins from six starts going short signal that this is the right spot for her and despite the week’s rest, she has all the tools to capitalize on this momentum and earn another big cheque.

Analysis-Comes back quick but has the right style

Fair Odds-4/1

4-Bizz (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Krash Racing)

First or second in all eight starts this year, Bizz has been unable to win a stakes race yet despite setting the pace deep into the stretch in her last two and on paper, the same scenario might just happen here and that is why she will not be one of my top picks. WV-bred company has been extremely tough this year and that is why she has been unable to score that breakout win and now, with pace to her immediate inside, she will be tested and that spells trouble if she hopes to handle seven-furlongs once again.

Analysis-Will be tested early and that might take the sting out of her

Fair Odds-6/1

5-Jazzmin (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-The Sidley Stud)

Jazzmin shipped in from LAD to take the Bishop Memorial at CT last time out, over one of her rivals here and a multiple state-bred stakes winner, and that makes her dangerous for a third win in a row if she can sit behind the speed and get first run at the leaders. Speed ratings have been increasing and she looks to be improving so expect another big effort from her as she tries to move forward and build another solid season.

Analysis-Stalk and pounce is the right move for her

Fair Odds-5/2

Overall

Different styles collide in the Grade III Dogwood at CD on Saturday evening and while it looks like speed is good over the main track, Jazzmin has the right form cycle and stalking ability to get the job done from the outside and will get my top nod in this spot. Highly Doubted comes from a big barn and should be charging late this distance but might come up short if the pace is slow, while Grey Wind comes back off a short rest but excelled in open company last time and might find this field reachable from a wire-to-wire standpoint.

Prediction

Win-Jazzmin (5/2)

Place-Highly Doubted (3/1)

Show-Grey Wind (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES