09/07 Super Derby – Grade III
LAD Race #16 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $300.000 For Three Year Olds.

1 Chrystal Believer Maxmillion Farm Carmouche

This colt qualified for the TC with an impressive win in the San Felipe and then a close second in the SA Derby where he came with a barnstorming finish which failed by only a neck. Drawn wide in the KYD he went up on the stalk but faded down the stretch to be eighth, its possible the slushy conditions were against him that da because he came out in the Preakness and ran much better. Drawn better he ran on well to be beaten less than a length into sixth. He had a litte break after a busy early season but when he came out in the Haskell he was very poor ending up twelfth and in the real world you would say he was in need of a longer break. This isnt the real world though and he put that effort firmly behind him last time out to win the Longacres Mile in good style. His form looks a little inconsistent on paper but it is nonetheless very good and if we get the best of him today he could just about win.

2 Tongariro John Henry Saenz D

There are two camps as to why this nice sort hasnt won more races. The first is that he is a true miler and has struggled over further so far and the other is that he is a bit of a quitter. It may of course be neither of those and be a combination of draws and instructions and his last start second to Unfold in the Dandy was top notch and would give him a winning chance especially as he was still in the lead at this trip in that race. He has the perfect draw and hails from a stable that has inherited the golden touch so he must be in with a big chance.

3 Golden Smokey Stover Alvarado J

There’s not much in his form lines that would give him a chance in this race but as we know form lines have very little to do with who wins at HRP and he has plenty of ticks in boxes to give him a chance. His works are solid on a sound surface even though he has looked better on a wet track, he has a great draw to work with and on his fairly close fifth in the LA Derby he has a piece of form that put him in the mix.

4 Not To Be Denied D J C Racing Stables Bridgmohan S X

This son of Niagra had a big juvenile season but has struggled a bit since turning three. It happens a lot where this type of horse hits a flat spot in its three year old campaign only to come back better as a four year old and probably has something to do with hidden improvement curves. Regardless of what he may do next year he is still a tough cookies who is suited by this trip and isnt that far away to a return to form. Fifth in the Dandy last time that gives him a few lengths to make up but a better draw today will help.

5 Lucky Kommand Estero Farms Husbands P

He has been bought and sold more than he has raced recently but now settles at Estero Farms and looks like he is taking to the change of scene nicely. The winner of the Battaglia Memorial back in February he went on to be third in both the Californian and the Dominion Day Stakes before being sold. His new owner sent him to the turf for his first start and he ran pretty well in the national Museum Of Racing but his recent dirt works have prompted the trainer to go back to dirt for another try. I am not sure he is good enough but he is thereabouts and whilst a win would be surprising it wouldnt be off the record.

6 Mercedes Benz First Class Stable Juarez N

This horse was trucking along nicely at overnight level winning two of his six races but then out of the blue came his effort in the Haskell last time which saw him very nearly win at odds of 85/1. It was once again an example of the zero class system but we have to ignore that and if you do he has a massive chance on that last run. He is certainly good enough and today he has the chance to prove that run in the Haskell was no flash in the pan.

7 Glitter Diety Mb Stables Franco M

Qualified for the TC with a win in the BG Stakes he was pretty poor in the KYD from a terrible draw and that effort os probably best forgotten. After a break he came back to win the Dominion Day and then contested the competitive WV Derby where he flew home to be third beaten under a length. A tough draw today will make it much harder for him to extend Mb Stables stranglehold on these sorts of races but it would be no surprise that the champion trainer pulls a performance out of the bag.

8 Where You At Rampage Stable Da Silva E R

Had Glitter Diety behind when surprising a few with a half length second in the WV Derby. Another that had shown fair form in lesser grade but due to the lack of any sort of class system was able to run a big race at MNR. He gets a poor draw today to try and do it again but a repeat of his effort in the WV Derby certainly puts him in the mix.

9 No Doubting You Mb Stables Maragh Ro

With the two Mb Stables entries drawn wide it may be likely that we will see some instructions shenanigans especially as this unbeaten son of No Doubt About It has yet to meet this level. His win in the Curlin last time was impressive considering his only other start was a narrow free track maiden win but as we know that all means nothing if the master has chosen this one as his main entry. The dark horse for sure but i think the draw will beat him.

SUMMARY

This is an open race with the 136 and change work times achieved by just about all the runners. The form looks very different on paper but in reality this race wont come down to either of those factors it will come down to draw and instructions plus of course a bit of luck and maybe a rabbit. On that basis alone i am going for one of the three inside draws to win with maybe Tongariro holding on if things go his way.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES