The Rebel – Grade II [KYD]
OP   Race #2   1 1/16m   Dirt   Graded Stake
Purse $900.000  For Three Year Olds.

1 Forestry, trained by D J C Racing Stable
The one thing you learn over the years of watching these races is that everything has a chance regardless of past form. This one is a typical example of the kind of horse that could win the race, but his chances don’t look that obvious at first glance. Drawn the ace hole, he caught the eye last year when third in the Grey Stakes, but then didn’t do so well when upped in grade in the DED Jackpot. That run can be explained though by the wide draw he had that day as he ran the default wide draw setting of fighting for the lead only to weaken late. If you excuse that effort, then his seasonal reappearance was pretty good, and he has the sort of work times that put him right in the mix for this.

2 Captain Oats, trained by Mb Stables
The first of the inevitable trio from the stable, he ran up three in a row in overnights before a good second in the TUP Derby. Drawn wide that day, he took the default HRP setting and went off into the lead, and whilst he did what the software told him to do and weakened late, he still kept on pretty well for second. His work times are sharp, and he will stay this trip just fine so he isn’t without a shout in an open-looking contest.

3 Vanilla Sunset, trained by Smokey Stover
Looks just a shade below this grade, but that’s not what his work times say, so he is another with a chance. Wide gate early speed last time out saw him just fail to pick up his seasonal debut in an overnight, but there was a lot to like about his closing fourth in the Golden State Juvenile. A better draw today will help his chances, and on work times alone, he will be right in the finish.

4 Final Delivery, trained by Mb Stables
Stable entry number two, he has struggled with consistency, but with his best effort would go very close. A clear cut winner of the KY Jockey Club at the end of last year, that win came off the back of a couple of ordinary efforts. He ran a bit flat in his first start of the season in the Southwest ending up last in a tightly packed field. If he can reproduce his KY Jockey CLub or SAR Special runs, he would be right in this, but you have to trust his trainer has taken the time to get his head right.

5 Slither, trained by Might Mare Racing
An out and out front runner, his recent purchase from Nynl Stables may see a change of tactics today. A real consistent sort, his last two efforts have seen a game second and third in the Sham Stakes and the San Vicente Stakes, and that is pretty solid form. I think he needs a little restraint, if he is to see out this trip, but if things work out for him he could run very well. He laid down a decent sub 1.37 work for his new trainer, so he is clearly responding to the new surroundings

6 Victory Laffin, trained by Nakamura Stables
Consistent in overnights, he got the joker in the pack in the Davis Stakes, being chosen to be the wide gate sacrifice and ran to script by leading and weakening late. Ignoring that effort there isn’t much else in his form to get excited about, but I do like the 1.36 and 1 work he did at SA in January. A better draw should see him put that last effort behind him, and if he can put his home work in on race day, would have a punchers chance.

7 Champsville Sweeper, trained by Axeman
He was very successful on the state bred scene running up a nice sequence of three straight black type wins. He has done enough in open grade in both the Lecompt and the El Camino to suggest he can be right in this and a sub 1.37 work in early March suggests he will be competitive.

8 Jolly Be Native, trained by Kopites
The stable of the moment, they are in great form, and this one is another that can add to the growing reputation. The winner of the SAR special as a two year old, he went on to finish second both the grade one Champagne and Hopeful. Those runs were great lead ups for the BC, and he ran a cracker from an awkward gate to be a hard closing third just a nose off the winner. He changed hands for $600.000 in December and reappeared in the Sham Stakes where he was somewhat disappointing in seventh. He was sharper last time out in the Holy Bull where he closed to be fourth and looks set for giving it 100% today. At his best, he will go very close to winning and will be many peoples choice for this important KYD qualifier.

9 Lord High Admiral, trained by John Henry
Another which has just been a little disappointing so far, he was second in the DED Jackpot last year from the wide draw which of course meant he went to the lead and weakened, but still ran a great race to hold on to the place. He did well to be second in the Lecomt after a break and then closed hard for fourth in the Southwest. His most recent mile work is one of the best of his generation, and he now looks ready to give his best in what may be a last chance to qualify for the KYD.

10 Face Your Fear, trained by Luz International
Hadn’t done much before hs effort in the Davis Stakes, but he ran a pleasing race to be third there and continues to work well enough to put him in the pack for this race. It would be a shock result from this nasty gate, but the way these races can go sometimes that be a good enough reason to back him at long odds.

11 All Memories, trained by Mb Stables
Beat his stable companion in the TUP Derby by a comfortable length, but had been slumming it down the levels before that. The stables horses tend to do that before they hit stakes race, so it was no surprise to see him win that ungraded race, but this is much tougher. No reason he can’t win as his work times say he can, but he is one of the less accomplished fancied horses, so you have to trust some improvement from this nasty draw.

12 Brontosaurus, trained by Blushing Meadows
A real interesting prospect, but the wide draw will be tough to overcome. On his form alone, it looks like he will struggle to stay this trip, but a decent mile work in February says otherwise. So a real conundrum to weigh up, but his trainer has a habit of pulling results out of the bag, and they are in good form at the moment.

SUMMARY
Well, like most of these races, it is a really open affair where pretty much anything could win. If they were drawn better, I would be going for Jolly Be Native and Lord High Admiral, and that still may be the one-two, but it’s worth having a little gamble at long odds in these races, and Victory Laffin or Brontosaurus could fall into that category.

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES