November 25, 2015

At HRP, unlike in real-life, the Fall Highweight Handicap does not carry the same credentials or level of difficulty for its runners since no one has ever been assigned more than 122-pounds; by extension, all horses in the BC Sprint carry a minimum of 124-pounds. For that reason, it is really a $250.000 handicap designed for horses who might not have been good enough for the Sprint or those who could be specialists in the Winter and early Spring and as such, gets a field of six with minor stakes and allowance winners, all trying to significantly pad their bankroll.

1-Foresight (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Foresight has a single victory in the past 19 months and comes into the Highweight off six straight losses but a second in the Kelso Handicap over a sloppy track might have been a sign that he could be coming up to a bigger effort and in this field, he cannot be overlooked for a minor prize. He was closing well two back in the Smile Sprint Handicap at GP but the top runners in that race have done nothing and being the only sprint on his resume in the past two seasons, he will be hard pressed to harness his speed enough to make a big late run.

Analysis-Comes in off the auction buy but probably not best going short

Fair Odds-10/1

2-Sinissippi Eagle (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Grimley)

A minor stakes winner on turf last season, Sinissippi Eagle is winless against much easier this season and after finishing well back in a recent starter allowance on the turf, he goes back to the dirt, and a sprint, and is severely overmatched. Speed ratings are lower than most in the field and there are simply too many changes to make him effective, leading to longshot status once again and the hope that he might be able to pick up a small share late.

Analysis-Not in the same class as the top choices

Fair Odds-15/1

3-Slow And Slower (Five-year-old black gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

Slow And Slower has been an excellent allowance-level horse all season with five wins from seven starts around that level and now, he will try once again to step up to Graded Stakes company and has a real shot against unproven route talent. He loves the six-furlong distance and has been stationed in NY for quite a while know, with workouts at SAR and BEL, so look for him to sit a perfect two-wide trip with the option to rocket around the turn with eyes on the top prize to cap off a big season.

Analysis-Crack sprinter looks excellent coming into this race

Fair Odds-3/1

4-Forest Bay (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-La Canada Racehorses)

Forest Bay beat a good field on the square in the Lafayette at KEE on BC weekend and earned a 99-speed rating, the best last-out mark in the field, so it would not be a stretch to see him cut back to six-furlongs and come from well out of it to run down the leaders late in the lane. However, this might not be his best distance and he will have to contend with a lack of early speed; all in all, tough factors to ignore if you are taking him as the favourite once again, like he has been in his last six starts.

Analysis-Might not be best at this six-furlong trip

Fair Odds-5/1

5-Baffle (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Nj Vets)

Baffle earns the highest impost on Thursday for his win in the Grade I Crosby at DMR but that 35-1 upset has not been duplicate with off-the-board finishes in this last three starts and he is about as vulnerable a highweight as you can get in a handicap field. He tried to go with the best in the BC Turf Sprint but was never a factor while tenth and if can forgive that move, he could be a minor threat to close into the late pace, although others have been to be much more effective in that regard.

Analysis-Will try to overcome a weight disadvantage

Fair Odds-10/1

6-Zipline (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Bigking)

A few big upsets this season put Zipline squarely in the forefront for the Fall Highweight and if he can handle the lack of speed to the inside, he might be quick enough to set the early pace and could be ripe for another big win for owners who have really come into their own late in the year. Another based in NY for much of the Summer and Fall, he posted a bullet workout over this course on November 11 and that kind of speed will make him a top choice in a field that lacks a standout but has plenty of intriguing prospects.

Analysis-Has put together a good season and could top it all off nicely

Fair Odds-7/2

Overall

Six-furlong specialists make up the top choices in the Grade III Fall Highweight Handicap and both Slow and Slower and Zipline will have eyes on the victory, as both come in off a top prep where the former was part of a triple dead-heat for the win and the latter was only a nose back in fourth. The outside post might turn the tides for Zipline but Slow And Slower has had a better campaign and gets the top nod, while Forest Bay could be the spoiler if the pace is quick and mow them all down from well off the early fractions.

Prediction

Win-Slow And Slower (3/1)

Place-Zipline (7/2)

Show-Forest Bay (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES