PA Derby – Grade I (P5)
PRX   Race #14   1 1/8m   Dirt   Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000  For Three Year Olds.

1  Rumble                 D J C Racing Stables   Lanerie C J

This is a pretty under rated three year old who has been flying under the radar a little and i believe may be the one to bother the big names the most today. He ran a great race to be fourth in the LA Derby closing hard to get within a length of the winner but that was his one and ony chance of getting in the KYD as he didnt really show that sort of ability until the Spring. Missing the KYD he took the Peter Pan by a cosey length from a wide gate and then took his chance in the BEL where a wide gate again didnt help his chances and he didnt make much of a show in ninth. Back to a better gate he showed his true ability in the IND Derby winning very easily by a couple of lengths and then ran a cracker in the Travers to be share second behind Centrepiece. The thing i like about him is that he didnt get a tough early campaign and looks to be still improving so as long as he doesnt get buried from this inside draw i expect him to run a big race.

2  Achilles                  Diablo Diablo    Pennington F

On form this would be a shock winner but we all know form means absolutely nothing at HRP and a recent 1.36 flat work out suggests he may have been sprinkled with some of that magic fairy dust since his last start. He broke his maiden in February and did run fourth a couple of lengths behind Rumble in the Peter Pan and gets KYD winning jockey F Pennington to help his chances. If work outs win races, which they can at HRP, then this one will go close at very long odds.

3  Blindfold    Mb Stables    Bejarano R

This one was a big hope in the KYD after winning both the Holy Bull and the LA Derby but absolutely hated the mud ending up 18th and beaten a very long way in the run for the roses. Since then he has avoided the rain running a super race in the BEL to be fourth, turning around ten lengths with Pretty Ferro. Another good run saw him second in the Queens Plate and then in his last start he led at the furlong pole only to be out battled by Pretty Ferro and The Spaniard when third in the Haskell. He raced pretty handy in the Haskell and i think he is a bit better from midpack so the tactics could be key today. Bejarano, who won the LA Derby on him, gets back in the saddle today and a good draw will put him right in this race.

4  Steel Tunes    John Henry    Albarado R J

Bought cheaply from Smokey Stover after running off 4 straight wins culminating in the All American he is another who hasnt had the rigors of a TC campaign and comes here probably a bit under the radar. His first start for the new owner saw him stroll home in the OH Derby but then he was a little one paced in The Dandy when sixth beaten a couple of lengths. He was dropped back to 7 furlongs in his last start and he finished like a train to be fifth beaten just a length probably showing that he needs atleast a mile at this sort of level. His works are in the right ball park and whilst he wont be among the favourites he certainly has a punchers chance of getting in the money.

5  Pretty Ferro    Estero Farms    Velazquez J R

This horse is having an amazing season and comes here the highest rated router in the game. He was dominant leading up to the KYD winning four in a row and then in the big race itself was just stunning in winning by two lengths. That race was a bit false thanks to the suicidal early pace and the wet ground but he was so impressive in the stretch that many thought he would win the triple crown. Again given a wide draw in the Preakness he got very close to taking leg two failing by just a nose to catch indistinguishable again on a wet track. I think in hindsight his owner may regret then going to the BEL for the third leg of the triple crown because he looked a jaded horse in finishing fifth after running much closer to the pace than usual. A decent rest saw him come back in The Haskell and prove he was as good as ever winning by three quarters of a length and putting back on course for the KYD, Classic double. There is no doubt he will start favourite and its hard to go against him but he has been beaten twice this year so its not impossible.

6  Zombie City    Eastern Equine    Gallardo A A

This horse has seen the rear end of Pretty Ferro a few times this year but is a very good horse in his own right and races today over what is probably his favourite trip. Bought for over a thousand dollars from Pan Farms that may prove to be a brilliant purchase or a terrible one but you have to admire the new owners committment in securing this top level three year old. Third in the KYD he didnt stay the trip in the BEL weakening out of it down the stretch but showed his true colors next up in The Dandy over this trip. Confidently ridden by his regular and todays jockey he cruised home by two lengths in a quicker time than Pretty Ferro won the Haskell. In his last start in The Travers he kept on well to be fifth beaten just a length and was right upsides Rumble so must atleast be given a similar chance to that one.

7  Di Pantera    Gdp Inc                  Ortiz I Jr

This is a nice enough sort but when you look at the quality of this field it is very hard to make a case for him.

8  One For Charlie    TwinTowersRacing   Centeno D E

Another who looks a hopeful rather than confident entry he did run well to be third beaten less than a length in the WV Derby but he would have to improve some more to take part in the finish here. The trainer can send the odd outsider to success in these big races and he did work 1.36 and 1 back in July so not a complete no hoper by any means.

9  Its All Over    Mb Stables    Lopez P

One has to wonder whether he will be a pace maker for his stable companion but he has some interesting form so does have a hope in his own right. The fact that he made all to win his last start and has been generally racing over shorter trips does make me worry that a wide draw and a higher rated stable companion may be his undoing. I have seen stranger thing happen than an on pace track bias giving a horse on a soft lead a shock win so write him off at your peril.

10  Pass Me By    Mb Stables    – Scratch –

11  Sacred Brave    Blushing Meadows   Rosario J

I like this one a lot but a nasty draw with all the talent inside him will make this very tough. He did beat Blindfold in the Queens Plate making all from a tough draw and one feels that if the race engine spins him to the lead again he could run a big race. In other starts he has run as a closer but we know HRP doesnt really tend to a horses positional preferences more their pace preferences and that Queens Plate was run pretty sedately through the first half mile. If that happens again and this one gets on pace he could be a surprise winner.

12  Decisive Moon    John Henry    Desormeaux K J

Looked an OK sort through the year but ran a cracker to take the Longacres Mile last time on his favoured wet track and one feels that his only chance in this race will come if the rains do too. Cracked out a 1.36 work in August so clearly has some ability but this horrible draw and a  very classy field will make it tough.

13  Zombies Among Us   Joshua Stables    Walcott R W

Bought at auction after five wins in a row you can’t blame his new owner for having a crack at the big time with him but sadly they have been rewarded for their endeavour with the car park draw. Make no mistake this is a nice sort who is clearly progressing well but he will be a shock winner of he can take this race from box 13.

SUMMARY

A great race in prospect it is hard to go past Pretty Ferro but there are plenty in with a  chance and it is a long way from a forgone conclusion. There will be plenty of support for Blindfold as Mb Stables has a habit of taking these bigger purses but i rather like the chances of Rumble and Steel Tunes if there is some value in their odds. Good luck to all

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