April 7, 2016
The Grade III Thunder Road is not as high profile as the Grade I Makers Mark Mile but comes at a great time for those older turf milers who are looking for a prep before the big races at DMR and SAR to stretch their legs and that is why a solid field of 10 has been assembled for a Friday afternoon matinee. A lack of recent Graded Stakes winners should not dissuade you on this field, as there are some top class earners and big winners amongst the group including a five-year-old who has finished first or second in 16 of 19 starts and a multiple Grade I winner trying to end a bit of a losing streak.
1-Charley Sweetback (Five-year-old bay horse / Owner-Delta Farms)
There were two extremely tough stakes races last season where Charley Sweetback was not at his best and if you throw those efforts out, he is one of the top class horses in the Thunder Road field despite only a single race over the turf. That effort came last time over a soft going at GG and he set all the fractions before tiring only late; now he should get a firm turf to race over and could be loose on the lead over a familiar surface with no one to catch him in the final furlong.
Analysis-Light on turf experience but high on talent
Fair Odds-4/1
2-Bad Mouth (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Tiratzo)
It is hard to gauge the effectiveness of the Grade I Kilroe Mile since three-lengths separated first from 12th and while sixth place finisher Bad Mouth came from last to secure his position, he has still yet to win a stakes race since the Vandal nearly two years ago and will be hard pressed to stop that streak here. His speed ratings are clearly some of the best in the field and he knows how to handle the class but there is something to be said for actually winning, and not just knocking at the door, and he will have to come through with a big effort to become a contender.
Analysis-Always there but never seems to win
Fair Odds-8/1
3-Candy Memories (Four-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Glorify Stables)
Candy Memories jumped up in class to contest the FG Handicap last time out but was unable to handle the class after tackling allowance company for much of his career and will now be asked to go against similar company off a minor freshening. Speed ratings topped out at TAM to close his 2015 campaign and have evened out since then and quick early fractions should set up his closing kick, if he is good enough to get there in the end.
Analysis-Did well in allowance company but this is much tougher
Fair Odds-15/1
4-Edge Of Chaos (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Joshua Stables)
It is tough to make a case for Edge Of Chaos in the Thunder Road, simply because his last effort was a tiring fifth going longer over the PRX turf and his last stakes attempt was in the Grade II Ft. Lauderdale, where it was a complete non-factor. The cutback to a flat-mile will be a boon to his chances and he seems to like an off-turf and with rain in the forecast, it will be left to the weatherman as to whether he is a huge favourite or an also-ran.
Analysis-Rain only enhances his chances
Fair Odds-10/1
5-My Behrens (Five-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Axeman)
State-bred stakes winner My Behrens has started off 2016 with two wins in three starts and while he led gate-to-wire two back in a high-level claiming score, his best effort might have been last time out when he came from off the pace and with speed to his inside, that will certainly be the way to win this race. Workouts over the course have been great and that local prep seems to be moving things in the right direction so look for another solid effort before he moves up to WO for the multitude of state-bred races that await him.
Analysis-Great performer continues to show promise on the grass
Fair Odds-6/1
6-Secret Song (Five-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Secret Song has never won an open stakes race among his five career victories and coming in off a closing sixth in the Grade II Diarmida, another race where only four-lengths separated first from last, he will have to be faster down the lane to finish in the top three. He was third in the Bradley Handicap two back and that came with a huge speed rating and he was odds-on in that event; if he can repeat that race, he has every bit the talent to win in this field before moving back into longer events down the line.
Analysis-Big shot if he can get into the race early
Fair Odds-5/1
7-General White (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Eastern Equine)
General White won two huge stakes races last Fall including the Grade II Twilight Derby but has been unable to duplicate those efforts in four starts for the new connections and will hope to find new momentum with a big cutback in distance. Both the San Marcos and the Diarmida proved to be a little too far for him and if he can sit a nice midpack trip through quick splits, he should be able to make a good account of himself and regain some much needed confidence.
Analysis-A shorter distance is just what he needs
Fair Odds-8/1
8-Kenny Wisconsin (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Frozen Tundra)
Kenny Wisconsin earned a career-best equaling speed rating last time out in winning the TUP Handicap but this is a huge jump in class and one that will test just how good he is, and how well he can handle a flat-mile with his blazing speed. He knows how to set the early pace but seems to get caught when the pace is too fast up front and learning to relax as he continues to race will help his chances in handling fields of this caliber and size.
Analysis-Winner last time out makes a big leap up the class ladder
Fair Odds-12/1
9-Breiterate (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Asgar)
It is usually quite a good deal to get a Grade I winner of more than $1600.000 for only $90.000 but Breiterate does not seem to be the same gelding he was last year and he will be hard pressed to earn back that price in his first start since the BC Turf. He won only a single race last year but it was the Grade I Manhattan Handicap at 14-1 and as a former fourth-place finisher in the BC Mile, he probably has the best performance at this distance in the field but will need to regain that form to hit the board from one of the outside draws.
Analysis-Classy veteran faces an uphill battle
Fair Odds-10/1
10-Fusaichi Seven (Five-year-old black horse / Owner-Nakamura Stables)
Since winning the Dangers Hour at AQU around this time last season, Fusaichi Seven has gone winless in five starts and after showing nothing in a seven-furlong event over the main track, he gets back to the turf in search of a return to his previous form. Speed ratings have been good in the past and he does show a good six-furlong workout at GP in preparation but the outside gate and that glaring final race leave a bad impression and the hope is that he can at least get into the race at some stage.
Se
Analysis-Did nothing on the main track last time
Fair Odds-25/1
Overall
Weather will play a huge factor on Friday in the Grade III Thunder Road and the best suited to an off-turf is Edge Of Chaos, who does not rank as a top three contender otherwise and will be hard pressed to make a case for himself. If the turf is firm, Charley Sweetback gets my nod as the inside runner with a chance to set a course early and often, with Secret Song in second off the change to a shorter distance and My Behrens in third, with the opportunity to run his winning streak to three with another big effort.
Prediction
Win-Charley Sweetback (4/1)
Place-Secret Song (5/1)
Show-My Behrens (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
