April 6, 2016

It is truly hard to imagine that, as I cover the fourth Grade I BG Stakes of my career, that 4 of the 12 owners racing in this incredibly important KYD prep were actually around to see that first race back in 2005, when Boom Site scored the biggest win of his career and horses were beaten by huge margins like 36-lengths. Since then, it has really attracted good fields but nary a KYD winner with the best being a third by Shanghai Mystery in 2010, with none of the winners even using the race as a stepping stone to the Run For The Roses. Still, with $1000.000 on the line and a guaranteed spot at CD, it has attracted another huge field of 14 going 1 1/8 miles over the KEE main track including the upset BC Juvenile winner and more importantly, the Fountain Of Youth who scratched out of a race at FG to win that event, and scratched out of a race last weekend to run here as well.

1-Connectivity (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Bigking)

After a maiden win and an allowance score, Connectivity was put into tough Graded Stakes company at AQU and SA and for the new owners, continues to race against the best of the division despite faltering last time out after making all the running. His speed ratings have evened out and he seems to be a little lackluster in workouts and while the pace he set in the San Felipe was incredible, he still needs to prove that he can relax before being taken as a serious TC contender.

Analysis-Inside runner will have to nation his speed

Fair Odds-15/1

2-Pink Flag (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Century Acres Farm)

There have been some huge purchases this season as owners scramble to find a TC entrant and Century Acres Farm paid more than $333.000 to grab Pink Flag off two straight wins, and will hope to earn a bunch of that price back in this advantageous spot. He was a huge off-the-pace winner over the SA turf last time out and keeps Lasix and a shadow roll on for this race but his best effort came on the grass and while workouts are powerful, he has to prove himself over the main track and that will make him a longer shot that he will be in future races.

Analysis-Big effort last time but needs to translate that to the dirt

Fair Odds-12/1

3-Red Candy Rioja (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Australia Wide)

Another huge purchase with $300.000 exchanging hands for him in January, Red Candy Rioja has come back for top owner Australia Wide with a third and a more recent victory over the mud at PRX and will try to extend his late speed that extra little bit from a good inside stall. He faltered at GP two back after setting all the fractions but would be much better suited to a stalking trip and with speed inside, can sit two-wide the entire way with enough left to make a determined late push.

Analysis-Seems to have improved under new ownership

Fair Odds-8/1

4-Easy Duz It (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Nj Vets)

Easy Duz It is another taking the turf-to-dirt angle and after a huge win at TAM going one-mile, he will attempt to overcome one of the inside stalls and earn a fourth win from only six career starts. He was solid in a one-mile race at CD as a juvenile but has changed hands a few times in the interim and the hope is that he can at least make a good case for himself before settling into some of the more lucrative but lesser known races down the line.

Analysis-Solid entrant but lacks the needed experience at this level

Fair Odds-10/1

5-Carneyman (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Broken Spoke Stables)

Carneyman sits right on the bubble in qualification for the KYD and will need a good showing here to secure his spot; the problem is that his last three efforts have been dismal and he will be a longshot to his the board unless something changes. He adds Bute to his profile once again and that could spark something but he has no published workouts since TAM and that is a huge cause for concern, especially in this tough Grade I contest.

Analysis-On a downward spiral since the BC
Fair Odds-20/1

6-Capo Di Tutti Capi (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Out of supersire Charley Farley, from a solid family on his dam’s side, Capo Di Tutti Capi certainly has the pedigree to be capable of more but has not really progressed off a solid juvenile campaign and comes into this race of a terrible effort at TAM. He never really got involved despite a middle post and gets the same one here; factors that cannot be overlooked at his tries to find the right running style after setting the pace in so many of his early races.

Analysis-Probably best to let him run early and see how far he goes

Fair Odds-15/1

7-Arctic Rock (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

A blowout winner at MNR on debut and a more sensible but still impressive N2X winner at SA in return, Arctic Rock comes loaded for the BG Stakes from top owner Mb Stables and could be the one with the most to prove come Saturday. With two entrants assured and a handful more on the cusp, his owner is trying to get as many cards on the table as possible and this colt has the look and feel of a good one, so look out!

Analysis-Big win at SA sets him up for a huge shot here

Fair Odds-5/1

8-Laffin Alicia (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Joshua Stables)

Laffin Alicia has raced at PRX since the Fall of 2015 and with only a maiden win and some minor success otherwise, will be one of the longer shots to hit the board at KEE as he moves up in class. His allowance effort last time in the mud was good but did not progress him forward and with only a 90-speed rating on his record, he will simply need to be faster in the latter stages if he hopes to get enough closing kick to contend with the best to both his inside and his outside.

Analysis-Has shown little to prove he belongs in this race

Fair Odds-20/1

9-Diplomatic Prince (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

Diplomatic Prince was good in both the Swale and the Battaglia Memorial to start of 2016 but contested amazing splits in the Grade III SUN Derby and backed up badly, which is a big issue coming in here from one of the outside gates. His start at TP was what will be needed to win this race, when he came from off the pace with a sweeping move, and the hope is that his patient jockey will get the best from him and he can rebound in a big way.

Analysis-See a big rebound in his future with the right closing trip

Fair Odds-10/1

10-Edwin Drood (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)

Edwin Drood is the ultimate opportunistic, scratching out of the Risen Star to win the Fountain Of Youth, then scratching out of the FL Derby to run here in the BG despite getting one of the farthest stalls in a solid field. His efforts make him a solid chance and he closed well at GP to earn one of the best last-out speed ratings in the field; all in all, he is the top choice and one that has to be regarded going into CD as a true chance to win it all.

Analysis-Seems to find the right spots and make the most of them

Fair Odds-4/1

11-Platoon (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Our Athletes)

The second runner from sire Pink Panther is Platoon, who only has a single win and a second from five career starts and was only fifth against state-bred rivals last time out as a rank 62-1 longshot. He seems to be much better suited for the turf but does have some good workouts coming into this race and that has to be something, even if it is only a means to an end when the real grass racing starts up towards late Spring.

Analysis-Should be a solid runner on the turf down the line

Fair Odds-20/1

12-Game Theory (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Royalty Racing)

The addition of Bute has led to two straight wins for Game Theory and both have come over a route of ground at AQU, with the big question being why he would ship to KEE for the BG when he could have stayed over his preferred track in the Grade I Wood Memorial. That being said, he found a stalking style in his last behind modest early splits and was able to come home in a quicker final time, showing the kind of forward progression that is needed to make a big impact in a race of this caliber.

Analysis-Has done well in state-bred company but this is a national stage

Fair Odds-8/1

13-No Doubt About It (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

No Doubt About It might just have the best pedigree of any three-year-old TC entrant this year and will try to overcome an outside post and find enough late speed to get up, unlike his even late kick in the TAM Derby would suggest. The only downside will be the fact that he has to get into the race earlier if he hopes to save any kind of ground and while the fractions will set him up, his jockey will have to make a shrewd move and one that could prove wonderful, or dangerous, in the final furlongs.

Analysis-Comes in with high potential and even higher expectations

Fair Odds-6/1

14-Spring Lover (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Grade II Futurity winner Spring Lover has been knocking at the door all season long with a third in the Lewis and a charging second in the San Felipe behind the hugely talented and despite having another outside stall, we know that he can use it to his advantage and gets that crucial extra 1 1/16 to work with now. A series of workouts at SA have been dazzling and owner Mb Stables knows how to win this race, having taken it last year with Im Too Confident, so look for him to be the best of the best in the final furlong with only slow fractions between him and a huge step forward to CD.

Analysis-Knows his place at the back of the pack and should be rocketing home

Fair Odds-9/2

Overall

It is almost a crime not to pick one of the three formidable MB Stables entrants in the Grade I BG Stakes on Saturday afternoon but while all of them have upside, including Spring Lover from the farthest gate, Arctic Rock off only two starts and No Doubt About It with his incredible pedigree, Edwin Drood has to be the slight favourite off his win in the Fountain Of Youth. Horses behind him at GP came back to finish in the top three in the FL Derby and he seems to choosing the right spots; add a middle post and speed to his inside and he could upset again, with a spot in the KYD on the line for so many involved.

Prediction

Win-Edwin Drood (4/1)

Place-Spring Lover (9/2)

Show-Arctic Rock (5/1)

4th-No Doubt About It (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES