4/3/21

 14  SA      SA Derby (GI) [KYD]

     $750.000        3yo          1 1/8th  Dirt         122lbs

It’s a huge weekend of racing here in SoCal and we look at the race that is more huger than any other (did I say huger?) it’s time for the SA Derby (GI), a major stepping stone to Louisville and the KYD.  Boy oh boy did we get exactly what you would expect for this one… some of the best sophomores in all the land.

This is an interesting group with entrenched winners, up and comers and even a pair fillies from the same barn… and I wouldn’t be surprised if they ran one-two.  But you know me and my disdain for fillies with the boys, and I landed on the lightly raced Elixir as my top selection.  Anytime Mb Stables has a solid horse, you take note, but this one may be special, as I see it.  I know he’s only been third in his last pair, but I think he is a candidate to run through the wall here.  Another that seems to be poised for a big effort is Plan To Wheel.  The Gotham (GIII) winner is training well, and is another that just seems to have a lot of up-side.  If he can repeat that last-out race, he could be real tough.  I don’t think you can look at this group without giving Cheesy a serious chance.  His last two were stakes wins over this track, so he’s the local favorite, for sure. 

You can make a case for a bunch of these, including the fillies, but I’ll stick to my handicapping and look for a memorable race today.  

Here’s the Field –

He’s always around when they hand out checks, but his graded races are probably his toughest finishes… of course, doesn’t that make sense?  He was fourth in the Rebel (GII) tiring a bit late so the added distance here makes this a bit more of a question to me. 

He’s a real hit-or-miss type that was third in the KY Jockey Club (GII), then next to last in the Jerome, bounced back to be second (DH) in the Holy Bull (GIII), then sixth in the Rebel (GII).  You see my point, but the good news should be that this is his up-stroke.

He is always in the picture, winning the S Davis (GIII) at TAM, then closing well to be third in the TAM Derby (GII) so this is a stage where if he kicks it up a notch, he could set his plate in a big way.  I’d certainly use him on my exotic tickets..

Only his fifth start and he’s come onto the scene in a big way winning his first two races then running third in both the Smarty Jones and the FOY Stakes (GII) at GP in his most recent.  If he continues to improve, look for a big run here.

The Super Filly is back to take on the boys again.  She won the Smarty Jones, fourth in the Risen Star (GII) and just missed after leading in the Gotham (GIII), all vs. the boys.  She’s for real… but will it take its toll?

Back-to-back wins in the Lewis Stakes (GIII) and the San Felipe (GII), both over this course, certainly makes this one loom large today.  Can he keep it going and stay undefeated this year?  If so, he may become the favorite for the KYD.

Why bring one filly to the party when you have a pair like this?  She proved she can run with any of these when second in the TAM Derby (GII).  They ignored her and sent her off at 25/1 odds that day.. I doubt you see that here.  This stable certainly knows how to get the most out of these girls. 

Fourth in the San Felipe (GII) making the first start for this barn after selling (again) for $300.000.  He won the Swale prior to the sell, so we know he can run with this type of horse-flesh.  I think he’s a horse that could improve and be a factor at a good price. 

Another hit-and-miss type that was tenth in the Best Pal (GII), just missed in the Iroquois (GIII), tenth in the Remsen, then just missed last out vs. Alw company.  His best would put him in the picture, but is he ready to run his best?  That’s why we are here.

He’s won two of his last three starts taking the Gold Rush at GG and a huge win in the Gotham (GIII) to set his plate for today.  He wedged a fifth place finish in the Holy Bull (GIII) between those wins.  He can run big, so give him a serious look here.

Back to back wins in the Inaugural Stakes and the Baffle before running sixth in the San Felipe (GII) in his most recent.  His best races have come at a sprint distance so moving to a route may be an interesting factor for this one… or is he playing the part of Bugs Bunny today?

Broke maiden, was fourth in the Regal Park for NY-bred and has been second and first in Alw races of late.. this is a big step up and I’d probably be a bit more leery but this is a sharp outfit and they don’t bring horses to the track to run eighth… he’s here because he has talent.

He’s sold twice in his past three starts, and was seventh in his debut for this sharp outfit.  Obviously, he needs to step it up in a big way, but perhaps his biggest race came in the Pharoah (GI) over this track, so does the home cookin get him back where he needs to be?

Lightly raced but has been on the board in five of six starts and the big barn knows a good horse when they see one.  He had three wins in a row including a win vs PA-bred stakes horses.  Can he do it on this big of a stage?

Needs some help to draw into the field here.  He was runner-up in the Sham (GIII) but has a pair of fifths since that.  Changed hands but could be competitive with his late kick.

Was a $6.250 claim and came back to win an Alw race over this track.  He’d be a long-shot but it would be a great rags-to-riches story, huh?

COZMAN   4 / 10 / 6            Willie’s Green Card    3 / 4 / 6  

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES