July 3, 2014
Although it is not really considered one of the top grass events for the fillies and mares, the Grade III Penny Memorial Handicap holds its place at PRX as a stepping stone to both the Diana and the Beverly D, tough Grade I races over the lawn, and attracts a solid field of six for a $200.000 purse. Rip Snortin won a three-horse battle last year in his renewal and ended up with a Grade II win and nearly $350.000 in seasonal earnings but she is not back to try for two in a row and instead, leaves the role of favourite to a pair of millionaires who will be looking to regain their form and a winning machine who returns to the East Coast after a big score at SA.
1-Earthly Gran (Four-year-old gray filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)
Very lightly raced and facing some top competition, Earthly Gran will also try to the grass for the first time after even efforts in both the La Troienne and Chicago Handicap and coming off short rest, will need all the stamina she can get if she hopes to move forward in the latter stages of this route event. Her speed ratings have stalled and she really has no turf workouts to fall back on so you have to back her with blind faith and that is always difficult in this caliber of race.
Analysis-Debuts on turf against some classy runners
Fair Odds-12/1
2-Summer Storm (Five-year-old black mare / Owner-Barcelona Farms)
Since being claimed for only $15.000, Summer Storm has been nothing but spectacular and coming off a huge win in the Valentine at SA, looks to add a second Grade III win to her resume and a 16th win overall from only 25 starts. She stretches out slightly for this event but should have no trouble handling the distance and is the only one coming in off a victory; while she does face some seasoned rivals, that confidence cannot be overlooked and she warrants a big look for top connections who know how to get horses ready.
Analysis-Loves to win and knows how to handle the turf
Fair Odds-3/1
3-Tidal Wave (Six-year-old bay mare / Owner-Paradise Stable)
Multiple Graded Stakes winner Tidal Wave has never been over the PRX turf but was fifth in the Cotillion a few years back before moving exclusively to the turf and the only major question mark with her is the weight, since she is conceding to everyone in the field going a route of ground. She already owns two wins this season including a big score in the Marshuas River at GP but set a wicked pace in the Nassau at WO before faltering and would be much better suited to setting a more sensible one here, especially if she wants to hold on for the crucial final furlong.
Analysis-Class of the field will try to make an easier pace
Fair Odds-4/1
4-Love Me Do (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Axeman)
Love Me Do is a multiple stakes winning filly who was purchased for $100.000 by her new connections and will try to earn much of that back with a victory here in the Penny Memorial, while making only her third start on grass. An even third in the Sheepshead Bay, that has not really come back as a strong race and she will need to be more effective going long if she wants to close into what should be a solid pace to her inside.
Analysis-Lack of turf racing and closing ability makes her vulnerable
Fair Odds-8/1
5-Track Star (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Heavens Own)
It is usually quite rare for a three-year-old to take on her older rivals at this stage in the season but Track Star raced well enough in the Nassau to warrant a move down to PRX for this event and could be a minor player if she gets the right pace scenario up front. She seems to enjoy going longer and certainly likes the grass and if she gets some speed inside, she might be the best closer in the field with less weight than her rivals, and a jockey who knows the course and has had a good season all around.
Analysis-Takes on older rivals and would not be a surprise to win
Fair Odds-6/1
6-Mentioned Honorably (Five-year-old bay mare / Owner-Mb Stables)
Three starts ago, Mentioned Honorably was a closing second in an allowance race over this same course and distance and while that might have been a yielding track, it set her up nicely for two big races at both WO and BEL and she returns to PRX with something to prove for her top owners. She has not really posted that huge speed rating but is certainly consistent and holds her own at these extended distances so look for a solid placing from the outside stall and the hope that she can move forward aggressively late against other suspect turf runners.
Analysis-Always runs her best but that might not be enough
Fair Odds-5/1
Overall
Summer Storm is the “now” horse coming into the Grade III Penny Memorial and will be sent off as the slight favourite from this handicapper with her last out victory at SA proving to be the tipping point in a field loaded with back class. Tidal Wave is the top weight and should be with all of her Graded Stakes victories and looks to be a solid second with eyes on a wire-to-wire win while Mentioned Honoraly always runs well but gets an outside gate and will have to get into the race around the turn if she hopes to finish better than third.
Prediction
Win-Summer Storm (3/1)
Place-Tidal Wave (4/1)
Show-Mentioned Honorably (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
